Toast Inc. (TOST) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Per the Roarable RQD rating, TOST scores 67 out of 100, a C+ grade, with the verdict "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 15 of 20 (ROIC 15.8%; FCF yield 2.11%), Whale/13F Flow at 11 of 20, Insider Conviction at 12 of 20, Macro Regime Fit at 11 of 20 (Beta 1.14), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 18 of 20 (Altman Z 13.05; Piotroski F 8/9; Debt/Equity 0.2). The strongest pillar is the forensic balance sheet, which points to low solvency risk. The weakest pillars are institutional flow and macro/sector fit, which are the areas where the rating sees the least confirmation. For a prospective investor, the upside driver is the balance-sheet strength and a ROIC of 15.8%. The valuation tradeoff is significant: per the market data, the stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 53.2 and an EV/EBITDA of 32.8, and FCF yield is only 2.11%, so much of the expected growth is already priced in. The rating's "Watch for Breakout" label implies the stock needs a catalyst to move out of neutral territory. This is analytical context, not personalized advice.

Toast Inc. is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Technology sector, within the EDP Services industry. Per the company profile, its market capitalization is $18.2B. The source data does not describe its product set, customer base, or revenue model in detail. Per the SEC financials, FY 2025 revenue was $6153.0M, indicating a substantial operating base.

Per the SEC financials, revenue grew from $3865.0M in FY 2023 to $6153.0M in FY 2025, and operating income moved from $-287.0M to $292.0M over the same period. Per the market data, the gross margin is 25.9%, operating margin 4.7%, and net margin 5.6%, while ROIC is 15.8%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 13.05 and the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, both indicating strong forensic health. Debt/Equity is 0.2 per the RQD forensic pillar, and reported debt fell from $2343.2M in FY 2023 to $459.4M in FY 2025 while cash rose to $1353.0M.

The news wire contains six items, all tied to TOST. Two are tagged CATALYST (green): a Yahoo Finance piece titled "Why Is Toast (TOST) Stock Soaring Today" and a Yahoo Finance piece on the stock dropping despite market gains. Four are tagged MARKET WIRE (yellow), including a StockInvest.us forecast, a Stocktwits item on a post-earnings slip, a Yahoo Finance piece on possible undervaluation tied to new AI tools, and a Yahoo Finance trending-stock piece. The headlines are mixed: they reference both a rally and a decline, and the summaries are generic and do not state specific earnings figures or deal terms. The Stocktwits headline references a post-earnings decline, which is a risk watch item. The AI-tools headline is a potential catalyst but is unverified in the source data. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.

• What share of the FY 2025 revenue and profit comes from which products or customers, and how durable is that mix?
• What drove the operating income swing from $-287.0M in FY 2023 to $292.0M in FY 2025, and how much of it is repeatable?
• What is the basis of the AI-tools catalyst referenced in the news wire, and what revenue or margin effect has been quantified?
• Why are EPS values reported as N/A for all three fiscal years when TTM EPS is 0.59?
• What is the institutional (13F) and insider position, given that the RQD flow and insider pillars score 11 and 12 of 20 without supporting holder data?