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Travel Leisure Co. (TNL) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$75.52 +5.37% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $76.11

Travel Leisure Co. (TNL) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $4.32B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TNL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Travel Leisure Co. (NYSE: TNL) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $75.52 (+5.37% 1D, market cap $4.32B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TNL ranks #169 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TNL compare to ATAT and PLNT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels/Resorts), TNL carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.7x, gross margin of 93.2%, and ROIC of 21.7%. By comparison, ATAT (Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 19.2x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $4.42B) and PLNT (Planet Fitness Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 18.4x, ROIC 19.1%, cap $4.03B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CHH leads on earnings multiple (13.8x) while ATAT leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TNL?
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Per TNL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001361658), Travel Leisure Co. generated $4.02B in revenue (+4.1% YoY), $230.2M in net income, and $523.0M in free cash flow against $6.76B in total assets and $3.48B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (93.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $76.11 (+0.78%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 13% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510069
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk D+
Cash (16)Whales (13)SEC (12)Macro (11)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5% Base Target
$94 Bull$79 Base$62 Bear
📬 FREE TNL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TNL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TNL SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 13% FCF Margin ($523.0M FCF) & 93.2% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (69.9) create a -9 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$62.63+7.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
64
Grade C+$67.18+1.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
66
Grade B-$68.38+10.4% Next Q
Current
69
Grade C+$75.52+2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TNL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, TNL faces multiple-compression risk if 18.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 90.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($65.76) or 200D SMA ($70.38) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($79.26) toward Bear Floor ($61.82).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TNL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TNL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
5.26% Total Yield
3.46% Cash ($2.61/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
88/100 • FORTRESS PAYOUT
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
18.5% of FCF
8 consecutive years of payout growth
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (8.8% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $23,243

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $1,223/yr
$10.9K
Yr 1
$11.8K
Yr 2
$12.9K
Yr 3
$14.0K
Yr 4
$15.2K
Yr 5
$16.6K
Yr 6
$18.0K
Yr 7
$19.6K
Yr 8
$21.4K
Yr 9
$23.2K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Cash-Flow & Quality Compounder Desk

Cash-Fortress Compounders: Auditing Free Cash Flow & Yield Safety in TNL & A-Rated Leaders

  • ✓12-month Bull/Base/Bear fair-value walkthrough on TNL and its top sector peer
  • ✓Top Roarable A-Rated cash compounders with verified executive & 13F accumulation
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
TNL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +21.49%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $71.49H $75.52L $71.49C $75.52VOL 1.15M
RES: $82.23SUP: $56.67SMA50: $65.76SMA200: $70.38
$80.79$75.42$70.05$64.68$59.31RES $82.23SUP $56.67$75.522026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TNL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
12.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TNL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TNL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TNL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TNL)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #169 of 1009 ⚔️ ATAT vs TNL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (TNL vs. ATAT, PLNT, CHH, BYD)

Industry: Hotels/Resorts (35 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Travel Leisure Co. (TNL) ranks #169 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #296 by equity capitalization ($4.32B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CHH leads on earnings valuation at 13.8x trailing P/E, while ATAT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. ATAT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with TNL at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TNL ACTIVE
Travel Leisure Co.
C+ 69/100 18.7x 93.2% 21.7% +5.37% $4.32B Benchmark Subject
ATAT
Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited
B- 70/100 19.2x — 85.0% +4.00% $4.42B /atat-vs-tnl →
PLNT
Planet Fitness Inc.
B- 70/100 18.4x 82.6% 19.1% +3.86% $4.03B /plnt-vs-tnl →
CHH
Choice Hotels International Inc.
C- 59/100 13.8x — 17.3% +6.70% $5.02B /chh-vs-tnl →
BYD
Boyd Gaming Corporation
D+ 55/100 — — 13.7% +5.78% $5.15B /byd-vs-tnl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001361658 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Travel Leisure Co. (TNL) reported GAAP revenue of $4.02B (+4.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.86B , and +7.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $230.2M, operating cash flow of $640.0M, and free cash flow of $523.0M (+36.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, TNL closed FY2025 with $6.76B in total assets against $3.48B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.72, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $4.02B $230.2M $640.0M $523.0M $6.76B $3.48B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $3.86B $411.0M $464.0M $383.0M $6.74B $3.43B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $3.75B $396.4M $350.0M $181.3M $4.50B $1.05B

3. TNL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TNL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Travel Leisure Co. (NYSE: TNL) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $75.52 (+5.37% 1D, market cap $4.32B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TNL ranks #169 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TNL compare to ATAT and PLNT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels/Resorts), TNL carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.7x, gross margin of 93.2%, and ROIC of 21.7%. By comparison, ATAT (Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 19.2x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $4.42B) and PLNT (Planet Fitness Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 18.4x, ROIC 19.1%, cap $4.03B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CHH leads on earnings multiple (13.8x) while ATAT leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TNL?

Per TNL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001361658), Travel Leisure Co. generated $4.02B in revenue (+4.1% YoY), $230.2M in net income, and $523.0M in free cash flow against $6.76B in total assets and $3.48B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (93.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TNL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TNL last traded at $75.52 (+5.37% on volume of 1,539,902 shares), positioning the stock +14.84% above its 50-day simple moving average ($65.76) and +7.30% above its 200-day simple moving average ($70.38). Across its 52-week range of $60.34 to $81.00, TNL sits at the 73.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 69.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.0% ($70.99 to $80.05).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 69/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TNL — Travel Leisure Co.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Travel Leisure Co. (TNL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 69/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $75.52 (+5.37% 1D, market capitalization $4.32B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (16/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 21.7%, gross margin of 93.2%, operating margin of 13.8%, and free cash flow yield of 12.14%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 0.98x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.72, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.85x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

And profile, Travel Leisure Co. Operates in the Hotels/Resorts industry within the Consumer Discretionary sector and is listed on the NYSE. The market data reports a gross margin of 93.2%, an operating margin of 13.8%, and a net margin of 5.7%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Travel Leisure Co. (TNL) reported $4.02B in annual revenue (up from $3.86B in FY2024, +4.1% YoY) and $230.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($3.75B revenue, $396.4M net income) through FY2025, TNL scaled operating cash flow to $640.0M and free cash flow to $523.0M, backed by $6.76B in total assets against $3.48B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 69/100): Strong cash generator (93.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 16/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $60.34 – $81.00 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Investors must weigh 18.7x trailing P/E and 11.2x EV/EBITDA against 13.8% operating margins and a 0.98x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector context provided is Consumer Discretionary / Hotels/Resorts, with a Beta of 0.98 per the market data.

  • Key Question #1: Can TNL sustain or expand its 13.8% operating margin and 21.7% ROIC against Hotels/Resorts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $4.02B and free cash flow of $523.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $3.48B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TNL's 17.4x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.98x)?

TNL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Travel Leisure Co. (TNL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TNL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TNL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $75.52?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TNL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TNL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $82.42 (+15.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

TNL's 21.7% ROIC and 12.14% FCF yield, supported by strong insider conviction, indicate a cash engine that the market may be undervalui

TNL's 21.7% ROIC and 12.14% FCF yield, supported by strong insider conviction, indicate a cash engine that the market may be undervaluing at 18.7x trailing earnings.. When you look under the hood at TNL, Fundamental Cash Engine is 16/20 with 93.2% gross margins and 21.7% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (13/20) has been quietly accumulating below $81.00. My 12M target is $82.42.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

@RedlineAuditor Shorting a 13/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $71.67 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $60.20 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $71.67

Debt has risen from $1.05B in FY 2023 to $3.48B in FY 2025 while operating income fell year over year, and the Altman Z-Score of 1.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on TNL: Debt has risen from $1.05B in FY 2023 to $3.48B in FY 2025 while operating income fell year over year, and the Altman Z-Score of 1.72 signals balance sheet pressure.. At 18.7x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Hotels/Resorts triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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