What is SPH's 12-month stock price target?

Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (SPH) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $17.56 (-1.3% from $17.80), with a bull-case target of $21.84 and a bear-case floor of $13.7.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / SPH / forecast

WINA (63) SVV (42) REAL (40) RERE (36) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (SPH) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Q: Is SPH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates SPH D+ (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 55/100.

$17.80 -0.89% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.74

Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (SPH) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 55/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.20B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SPH Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SPH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

▼

As of 2026-11-03, Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (NYSE: SPH) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $17.80 (-0.89% 1D, market cap $1.20B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SPH ranks #440 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SPH compare to WINA and SVV in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

▼

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Other Specialty Stores), SPH carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.2x, gross margin of 60.6%, and ROIC of 8.4%. By comparison, WINA (Winmark Corporation) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 24.5x, ROIC 84.5%, cap $1.02B) and SVV (Savers Value Village Inc.) posts a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E 64.5x, ROIC 9.3%, cap $1.44B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SPH leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while WINA leads on capital efficiency (84.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SPH?

▼

Per SPH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-27, CIK 0001005210), Suburban Propane Partners L.P. generated $1.43B in revenue (+7.9% YoY), $106.6M in net income, and $114.3M in free cash flow against $2.40B in total assets and $1.32B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.74 (-0.35%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SPH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (55/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SPH SCORES 55/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (31% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (18% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 8% FCF Margin ($114.3M FCF) & 60.6% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (61.2) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$17.27+0.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$17.41+3.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$18.01-1.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$17.80-0.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (47) → D+ (55)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SPH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 55/100 (D+) score, SPH faces multiple-compression risk if 11.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($17.24) or 200D SMA ($18.72) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($17.56) toward Bear Floor ($13.70).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SPH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SPH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 26, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 55%NO 45%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your SPH Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $17.80: 561.8 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $13.70

$7,697

$-2,303 (-23.0%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $17.56

$9,865

$-135 (-1.3%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $21.84

$12,270

+$2,270 (+22.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$18	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$21	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$16	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SPH)

✓Walkthrough of SPH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

SPH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.00%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-03O $17.85H $17.96L $17.80C $17.80VOL 201.3K

RES: $18.29SUP: $15.75SMA50: $17.24SMA200: $18.72

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SPH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SPH Butterfly Map → + Track SPH →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

1.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SPH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SPH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SPH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SPH)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #440 of 1009 ⚔️ WINA vs SPH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (SPH vs. WINA, SVV, REAL, RERE)

Industry: Other Specialty Stores (42 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (SPH) ranks #440 by composite RQD confidence (55/100, grade D+) and #487 by equity capitalization ($1.20B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SPH leads on earnings valuation at 11.2x trailing P/E, while WINA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 84.5% ROIC and 96.0% gross margin. WINA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with SPH at 55/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SPH ACTIVE Suburban Propane Partners L.P.	D+	55/100	11.2x	60.6%	8.4%	-0.89%	$1.20B	Benchmark Subject
WINA Winmark Corporation	C	63/100	24.5x	96.0%	84.5%	-0.89%	$1.02B	/wina-vs-sph →
SVV Savers Value Village Inc.	D-	42/100	64.5x	—	9.3%	-0.11%	$1.44B	/svv-vs-sph →
REAL The RealReal Inc.	D-	40/100	—	74.6%	-27.4%	+8.86%	$1.49B	/real-vs-sph →
RERE ATRenew Inc. (every three of which representing two ) (Class A)	D-	36/100	18.8x	—	14.7%	+2.82%	$855.1M	/rere-vs-sph →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-27 • CIK 0001005210 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-27), Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (SPH) reported GAAP revenue of $1.43B (+7.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.33B , and +0.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $106.6M, operating cash flow of $186.3M, and free cash flow of $114.3M (+13.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, SPH closed FY2025 with $2.40B in total assets against $1.32B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.27, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-27	$1.43B	$106.6M	$186.3M	$114.3M	$2.40B	$1.32B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-28	$1.33B	$74.2M	$160.6M	$101.2M	$2.38B	$1.30B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$1.43B	$123.8M	$225.2M	$225.2M	—	—

3. SPH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SPH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does SPH compare to WINA and SVV in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SPH?

Where is SPH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SPH last traded at $17.80 (-0.89% on volume of 279,928 shares), positioning the stock +3.25% above its 50-day simple moving average ($17.24) and -4.91% below its 200-day simple moving average ($18.72). Across its 52-week range of $16.25 to $20.80, SPH sits at the 34.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 61.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.3% ($17.21 to $18.39).

Direct Sub-Reports: SPH RQD Cockpit SPH 12M Forecast SPH Earnings & Move SPH Dividends & DRIP SPH Insiders & 13F SPH Whale Options SPH Profit Sankey SPH News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 55/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SPH — Suburban Propane Partners L.P.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-09-27

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (SPH) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 55/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $17.80 (-0.89% 1D, market capitalization $1.20B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.4%, gross margin of 60.6%, operating margin of 14.4%, and free cash flow yield of 9.60%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.27, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 2.11x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Suburban Propane Partners L.P. Is listed on the NYSE and classified under Consumer Discretionary, Other Specialty Stores, profile..2B. Specific products, customers, and revenue mix are not detailed in the source data beyond the sector and industry labels. Gross margin is 60.6% and operating margin is 14.4% per the market data section.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-09-27), Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (SPH) reported $1.43B in annual revenue (up from $1.33B in FY2024, +7.9% YoY) and $106.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.43B revenue, $123.8M net income) through FY2025, SPH scaled operating cash flow to $186.3M and free cash flow to $114.3M, backed by $2.40B in total assets against $1.32B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 55/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 9.60% and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $16.25 – $20.80 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 11.2x trailing P/E and 9.4x EV/EBITDA against 14.4% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector classification (Consumer Discretionary, Other Specialty Stores) is the only sector-level context provided.

Key Question #1: Can SPH sustain or expand its 14.4% operating margin and 8.4% ROIC against Other Specialty Stores peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.43B and free cash flow of $114.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.32B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is SPH's 10.4x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

SPH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (SPH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SPH Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 23h ago

Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. Declares Increase in Annualized Distribution Rate to $1.40 per Common Unit

Yahoo Finance report covering Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (SPH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST TradingView • 1d ago

Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. Estimates – NYSE:SPH

TradingView report covering Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (SPH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Globe and Mail • 1d ago

Suburban Propane to Review Fiscal 2026 Results

The Globe and Mail report covering Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (SPH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST MarketBeat • 1d ago

Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. (NYSE:SPH) Shares Shorted: Short Interest Up 67.4% in September

MarketBeat report covering Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (SPH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Simply Wall St • 1d ago

How Distribution Increase At Suburban Propane Partners Stock Has Changed Its Investment Story

Simply Wall St report covering Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (SPH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST ad-hoc-news.de • 1d ago

Suburban Propane stock: Suburban Propane raises distribution on Suburban Propane stock to USD 0.35

ad-hoc-news.de report covering Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (SPH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Traders Daily • 1d ago

Behavioral Patterns of SPH and Institutional Flows

Stock Traders Daily report covering Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (SPH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST https://www.dars.gov.et/ • 1d ago

Suburban Propane Partners (SPH) Grinds Higher: Shares Hold Above $17 as Traders Eye $17.98 Resistance - Volatility Stop

https://www.dars.gov.et/ report covering Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (SPH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SPH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $17.80?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SPH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $21.37 (+19.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction scores 17/20 and FCF yield is 9.6% while the stock trades at 11.2x TTM earnings.

Don't sleep on SPH's setup in Consumer Discretionary. Insider conviction scores 17/20 and FCF yield is 9.6% while the stock trades at 11.2x TTM earnings.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (55/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — SPH's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $14.55 (-19.0%)

Spot @ $17.96

Altman Z of 1.27 and Debt/Equity of 2.11 with only $1.3M cash leave the balance sheet highly exposed.

I respect the product at Suburban Propane Partners L.P., but the stock at $17.96 is a different story. Altman Z of 1.27 and Debt/Equity of 2.11 with only $1.3M cash leave the balance sheet highly exposed.. FCF yield is 9.6% and RQD sits at 55/100 (D+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?