Are ONTO insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies ONTO leadership and institutional positioning as: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING.

Stock Ratings / Industrials / ONTO / insiders

DRS (58) OC (52) CGNX (59) RRX (55) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$191.40 -5.04% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $189.30

Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $9.89B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ONTO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ONTO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Onto Innovation Inc. (NYSE: ONTO) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $191.40 (-5.04% 1D, market cap $9.89B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, ONTO ranks #139 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ONTO compare to DRS and OC in the Industrials sector?

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Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), ONTO carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 49.7%, and ROIC of 5.6%. By comparison, DRS (Leonardo DRS Inc.) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 38.1x, ROIC 9.2%, cap $10.05B) and OC (Owens Corning Inc) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.5%, cap $9.58B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DRS leads on earnings multiple (38.1x) while DRS leads on capital efficiency (9.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ONTO?

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Per ONTO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03, CIK 0000704532), Onto Innovation Inc. generated $1.01B in revenue (+1.8% YoY), $136.8K in net income, and $299.8M in free cash flow against $2.37B in total assets and $120.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $189.29 (-1.10%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 29.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ONTO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ONTO SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (31% of score)

Altman Z-Score 26.00 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 29.8% FCF Margin ($299.8M FCF) & 49.7% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$241.41-8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$222.14+0.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$223.68-14.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$191.40+0% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (66) → D+ (58)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ONTO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, ONTO faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 47.2% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($260.12) or 200D SMA ($261.00) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($191.40) toward Bear Floor ($149.29).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ONTO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ONTO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 2, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 58%NO 42%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

ONTO Smart-Money Thermometer: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (ONTO)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on ONTO. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ONTO)

✓Walkthrough of ONTO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ONTO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -36.10%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-03O $221.9H $221.9L $191.4C $191.4VOL 1.09M

RES: $328.7SUP: $183.9SMA50: $260.1SMA200: $261.0

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ONTO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ONTO Butterfly Map → + Track ONTO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ONTO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ONTO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ONTO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ONTO)

Industrials Rank #139 of 486 ⚔️ DRS vs ONTO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (ONTO vs. DRS, OC, CGNX, RRX)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) ranks #139 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #102 by equity capitalization ($9.89B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DRS leads on earnings valuation at 38.1x trailing P/E, while DRS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.2% ROIC and 23.8% gross margin. CGNX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with ONTO at 58/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ONTO ACTIVE Onto Innovation Inc.	D+	58/100	—	49.7%	5.6%	-5.04%	$9.89B	Benchmark Subject
DRS Leonardo DRS Inc.	D+	58/100	38.1x	23.8%	9.2%	-2.02%	$10.05B	/drs-vs-onto →
OC Owens Corning Inc	D+	52/100	—	28.1%	3.5%	+3.66%	$9.58B	/oc-vs-onto →
CGNX Cognex Corporation	C-	59/100	86.7x	66.9%	8.9%	+0.46%	$9.45B	/cgnx-vs-onto →
RRX Regal Rexnord Corporation	D+	55/100	39.0x	37.4%	4.9%	+2.35%	$10.47B	/rrx-vs-onto →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-03 • CIK 0000704532 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03), Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) reported GAAP revenue of $1.01B (+1.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $987.3M , and +23.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $136.8K, operating cash flow of $328.3M, and free cash flow of $299.8M (+40.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, ONTO closed FY2025 with $2.37B in total assets against $120.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 26.00, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-01-03	$1.01B	$136.8K	$328.3M	$299.8M	$2.37B	$120.2M
FY2024 (FY)	2025-12-28	$987.3M	$201.7K	$245.7M	$213.8M	$2.12B	$86.0M
FY2023 (FY)	2024-12-30	$815.9M	$121.2K	$172.0M	$135.3M	$5.99B	$1.40B

3. ONTO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ONTO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ONTO compare to DRS and OC in the Industrials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ONTO?

Where is ONTO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ONTO last traded at $191.40 (-5.04% on volume of 815,030 shares), positioning the stock -26.42% below its 50-day simple moving average ($260.12) and -26.67% below its 200-day simple moving average ($261.00). Across its 52-week range of $118.97 to $386.46, ONTO sits at the 27.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.1% ($170.15 to $212.65).

Direct Sub-Reports: ONTO RQD Cockpit ONTO 12M Forecast ONTO Earnings & Move ONTO Dividends & DRIP ONTO Insiders & 13F ONTO Whale Options ONTO Profit Sankey ONTO News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 58/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ONTO — Onto Innovation Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2026-01-03

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 58/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $191.40 (-5.04% 1D, market capitalization $9.89B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 5.6%, gross margin of 49.7%, operating margin of 13.2%, and free cash flow yield of 2.75%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 1.10x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 26.00, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.05x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, operating in Industrial Machinery/Components. Per the market data, the company reports gross margin of 49.7% and operating margin of 13.2%. — describes its specific customers or product lines. The company's market capitalization is $10.89B per the market data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-01-03), Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) reported $1.01B in annual revenue (up from $987.3M in FY2024, +1.8% YoY) and $136.8K in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($815.9M revenue, $121.2K net income) through FY2025, ONTO scaled operating cash flow to $328.3M and free cash flow to $299.8M, backed by $2.37B in total assets against $120.2M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 58/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 2.75% and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $118.97 – $386.46 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh current valuation and 67.8x EV/EBITDA against 13.2% operating margins and a 1.10x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream links are recorded and no proprietary signals are present. Sector correlations and 2nd-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the supplied graph. — for supplier, customer, or peer dependencies.

Key Question #1: Can ONTO sustain or expand its 13.2% operating margin and 5.6% ROIC against Industrial Machinery/Components peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.01B and free cash flow of $299.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $120.2M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is ONTO's equity valuation to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.10x)?

ONTO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ONTO Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance Singapore • 23h ago

Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) stock price, news, quote and history

Yahoo Finance Singapore report covering Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Onto Innovation: Fall Buyers Rewarded With 2027 Growth

Seeking Alpha report covering Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟢 CATALYST Trefis • 1d ago

Onto Innovation Stock Rides A 6-Day Winning Streak To A 17% Gain

Trefis report covering Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Onto Innovation (ONTO) Stock Declines While Market Improves: Some Information for Investors

Yahoo Finance report covering Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 1d ago

Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Does Onto Innovation Stock's Valuation Make Sense?

Yahoo Finance report covering Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Onto Innovation (ONTO) Stock May Be 23% Undervalued As Cash Flow Grows

Yahoo Finance report covering Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Onto Innovation (ONTO) Falls More Steeply Than Broader Market: What Investors Need to Know

Yahoo Finance report covering Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ONTO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $191.40?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ONTO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $235.84 (+17.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance-sheet strength (Altman Z 26, Piotroski F 7/9, Debt/Equity 0.05) and FY 2025 cash of $346.1M exceeding debt of $120.2M

The street is overcomplicating Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO). Forensic balance-sheet strength (Altman Z 26, Piotroski F 7/9, Debt/Equity 0.05) and FY 2025 cash of $346.1M exceeding debt of $120.2M provide substantial financial resilience.. With an RQD score of 58/100 (D+) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 18/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $217.70.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — ONTO's 18/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $163.27 (-19.0%)

Spot @ $201.57

Reported net income of $0.1M in FY 2025 against a 67.8 EV/EBITDA and a 2.75% FCF yield leaves the valuation resting on thin accounting

Careful chasing ONTO at $201.57. Reported net income of $0.1M in FY 2025 against a 67.8 EV/EBITDA and a 2.75% FCF yield leaves the valuation resting on thin accounting earnings.. Gross margin is 49.7%, but operating margin is 13.2%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $163.27 on multiple compression.