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Stock Ratings / Industrials / ONTO / earnings
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Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±10.4% Move

$201.57 -9.16% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $197.86

Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $10.89B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ONTO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ONTO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Onto Innovation Inc. (NYSE: ONTO) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $201.57 (-9.16% 1D, market cap $10.89B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, ONTO ranks #138 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ONTO compare to RRX and DRS in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), ONTO carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 49.7%, and ROIC of 5.6%. By comparison, RRX (Regal Rexnord Corporation) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 39.0x, ROIC 4.9%, cap $10.90B) and DRS (Leonardo DRS Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 38.1x, ROIC 9.2%, cap $10.58B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LII leads on earnings multiple (14.8x) while LII leads on capital efficiency (34.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ONTO?
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Per ONTO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03, CIK 0000704532), Onto Innovation Inc. generated $1.01B in revenue (+1.8% YoY), $136.8K in net income, and $299.8M in free cash flow against $2.37B in total assets and $120.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $197.86 (-1.84%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 29.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510059
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C+
Cash (14)Whales (6)SEC (18)Macro (9)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.5% Base Target
$406 Bull$202 Base$158 Bear
📬 FREE ONTO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ONTO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ONTO SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (31% of score)

Altman Z-Score 26.00 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 29.8% FCF Margin ($299.8M FCF) & 49.7% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
67
Grade B-$263.55-16.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
64
Grade C+$219.62-2.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
62
Grade C+$214.17-5.9% Next Q
Current
59
Grade C-$201.57+0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (67) → C- (59)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ONTO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, ONTO faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 47.2% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($261.92) or 200D SMA ($261.07) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($202.48) toward Bear Floor ($157.93).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ONTO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ONTO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 2, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Jan 2, 2027 (~60 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±10.4% Swing Band

±$20.96 Expected Swing
$180.61 (-10.4%)Spot $201.57$222.53 (+10.4%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

ONTO Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 59/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 1.8%

Model Bullish Setup (59/100)Model Risk Weight (41/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252026-01-03$1.01B$136.8K$299.8M49.7%
FY 20242024-12-28$987.3M$201.7K$213.8M52.2%
FY 20232023-12-30$815.9M$121.2K$135.3M49.7%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating ONTO & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on ONTO
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
ONTO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -32.71%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $223.7H $223.7L $201.6C $201.6VOL 824.5K
RES: $329.2SUP: $185.3SMA50: $261.9SMA200: $261.1
$401.8$338.2$274.5$210.9$147.2RES $329.2SUP $185.3$201.62026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ONTO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ONTO Butterfly Map → + Track ONTO →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ONTO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ONTO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ONTO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ONTO)

Industrials Rank #138 of 485 ⚔️ RRX vs ONTO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (ONTO vs. RRX, DRS, PNR, LII)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) ranks #138 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #96 by equity capitalization ($10.89B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LII leads on earnings valuation at 14.8x trailing P/E, while LII leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 34.9% ROIC and 33.4% gross margin. PNR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with ONTO at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ONTO ACTIVE
Onto Innovation Inc.
C- 59/100 — 49.7% 5.6% -9.16% $10.89B Benchmark Subject
RRX
Regal Rexnord Corporation
D+ 58/100 39.0x 37.4% 4.9% -3.90% $10.90B /rrx-vs-onto →
DRS
Leonardo DRS Inc.
C 63/100 38.1x 23.8% 9.2% -4.94% $10.58B /drs-vs-onto →
PNR
Pentair plc. Ordinary Share
C+ 69/100 16.1x 40.5% 12.5% +0.64% $10.51B /pnr-vs-onto →
LII
Lennox International Inc.
C- 59/100 14.8x 33.4% 34.9% -1.16% $11.91B /lii-vs-onto →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-03 • CIK 0000704532

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03), Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) reported GAAP revenue of $1.01B (+1.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $987.3M , and +23.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $136.8K, operating cash flow of $328.3M, and free cash flow of $299.8M (+40.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, ONTO closed FY2025 with $2.37B in total assets against $120.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 26.00, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-01-03 $1.01B $136.8K $328.3M $299.8M $2.37B $120.2M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-28 $987.3M $201.7K $245.7M $213.8M $2.12B $86.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-30 $815.9M $121.2K $172.0M $135.3M $5.99B $1.40B

3. ONTO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ONTO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Onto Innovation Inc. (NYSE: ONTO) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $201.57 (-9.16% 1D, market cap $10.89B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, ONTO ranks #138 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ONTO compare to RRX and DRS in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), ONTO carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 49.7%, and ROIC of 5.6%. By comparison, RRX (Regal Rexnord Corporation) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 39.0x, ROIC 4.9%, cap $10.90B) and DRS (Leonardo DRS Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 38.1x, ROIC 9.2%, cap $10.58B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LII leads on earnings multiple (14.8x) while LII leads on capital efficiency (34.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ONTO?

Per ONTO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03, CIK 0000704532), Onto Innovation Inc. generated $1.01B in revenue (+1.8% YoY), $136.8K in net income, and $299.8M in free cash flow against $2.37B in total assets and $120.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ONTO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ONTO last traded at $201.57 (-9.16% on volume of 1,085,275 shares), positioning the stock -23.04% below its 50-day simple moving average ($261.92) and -22.79% below its 200-day simple moving average ($261.07). Across its 52-week range of $118.97 to $386.46, ONTO sits at the 30.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.4% ($180.61 to $222.53).

ONTO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is ONTO's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Jan 2, 2027.

How much is ONTO stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±10.4% event move for ONTO, spanning a range between $180.61 and $222.53.

Direct Sub-Reports: ONTO RQD Cockpit ONTO 12M Forecast ONTO Earnings & Move ONTO Dividends & DRIP ONTO Insiders & 13F ONTO Whale Options ONTO Profit Sankey ONTO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 59/100 (C-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ONTO — Onto Innovation Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:16:08Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ONTO scores 59 out of 100, a letter grade of C-, with a verdict label of "Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral." The five pillars break down as follows:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 14 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 5.6% and an FCF yield of 2.75%. For a prospective investor, this indicates the business generates cash, but the return on invested capital and free-cash-flow yield are modest relative to the current share price.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 6 / 20. This pillar captures institutional accumulation and options positioning. The low score signals that the source data does not show strong institutional accumulation momentum.
  • Insider Conviction: 12 / 20. This pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The mid-range score indicates no decisive insider-buying signal in either direction.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 9 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.1 and the score reflects sector sensitivity. For a prospective investor, this suggests the stock is somewhat more volatile than the broad market and is exposed to sector-level swings.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 18 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this is the strongest pillar, citing Altman Z of 26, Piotroski F of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.05. For a prospective investor, the balance sheet is a clear strength and limits solvency risk.

Taken together, the rating points to a stock whose balance sheet is a clear strength, whose cash generation and institutional/insider signals are only moderate, and whose sector-sensitive valuation carries tradeoffs. Upside drivers would need to come from improving returns on capital and renewed institutional interest. Valuation tradeoffs are visible in the EV/EBITDA of 67.8 against a 2.75% FCF yield. This is educational analysis, not personalized financial advice.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$1005.3M$132.9M$0.1MN/A$299.8M$346.1M$120.2M
FY 2024$987.3M$187.1M$0.2MN/A$213.8M$212.9M$86.0M
FY 2023$815.9M$116.1M$0.1MN/A$135.3MN/A$1401.4M

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $815.9M in FY 2023 to $1005.3M in FY 2025, while reported net income remained near breakeven across all three periods. Per the market data, net margin is 0% and ROIC is 5.6%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 26 and the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, with Debt/Equity of 0.05. Per the SEC financials, FY 2025 cash of $346.1M exceeds debt of $120.2M.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the news wire, six items reference ONTO: a Yahoo Finance Singapore market-wire item, a Seeking Alpha piece titled "Onto Innovation: Fall Buyers Rewarded With 2027 Growth" (marked as a catalyst), a Trefis item on a six-day winning streak with a 17% gain (catalyst), a Yahoo Finance item noting the stock declined while the market improved, a Yahoo! Finance Canada market-wire item, and a Yahoo Finance valuation piece asking whether the stock's valuation makes sense. The news wire assigns green-light tags to the Seeking Alpha and Trefis items and yellow-light tags to the remaining four. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What are the reported EPS and P/E (TTM) figures, given that the source lists them as unavailable and reports net income near $0.1M–$0.2M?
  • What drives the gap between the 67.8 EV/EBITDA and the 2.75% FCF yield?
  • Who are the institutional and insider holders, and what is their recent activity?
  • What is the consensus analyst rating and price target?
  • What customers, end markets, and supply-chain dependencies sit behind the reported revenue?

ONTO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ONTO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ONTO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $201.57?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ONTO 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ONTO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $239.64 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ONTO (C- • RQD 59/100) a Buy at $221.89?

Welcome to the ONTO (Onto Innovation Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 59/100 (Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral) in Industrial Machinery/Components. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $181.95 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $221.89

Pump the brakes on ONTO — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ONTO, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 49.7% gross margins. Unless Onto Innovation Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $279.58 (+26.0%)
Spot @ $221.89

ONTO cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ONTO, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Industrial Machinery/Components and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $221.89 (52-wk range $118.97 - $386.46), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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