Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$18.23 -1.30% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.15

Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $14.55B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NYSE: NLY) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $18.23 (-1.30% 1D, market cap $14.55B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, NLY ranks #704 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NLY compare to WY and OHI in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), NLY carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.0%. By comparison, WY (Weyerhaeuser Company) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E 43.9x, ROIC 4.1%, cap $14.23B) and OHI (Omega Healthcare Investors Inc.) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.0%, cap $14.19B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NLY leads on earnings multiple (7.1x) while REG leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NLY?
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Per NLY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001043219), Annaly Capital Management Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $2.05B in net income, and $692.9M in free cash flow against $135.61B in total assets and $53.75B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.15 (-0.42%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 17.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510048
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+
Cash (5)Whales (5)SEC (15)Macro (6)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target
$26 Bull$17 Base$14 Bear
📬 FREE NLY RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NLY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NLY SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (35% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (31% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
40
Grade D$18.16+0.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
43
Grade D$18.29+0.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
45
Grade D$18.34-0.6% Next Q
Current
48
Grade D$18.23-5.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (40) → D (48)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NLY Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NLY currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NLY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NLY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
4330 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
7 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE8% OF RANGE
L: $18$18.23H: $25
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 5 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 22 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on NLY

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (25)

4.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 3.50% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (75)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (47)

22/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 6/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like NLY
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
  • ✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NLY)

  • ✓Walkthrough of NLY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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NLY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -18.43%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $18.29H $18.47L $18.23C $18.23VOL 8.76M
RES: $25.01SUP: $17.12SMA50: $20.11SMA200: $21.89
$24.34$22.54$20.74$18.94$17.14RES $25.01SUP $17.12$18.232026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NLY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-7.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NLY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NLY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NLY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NLY)

Financials Rank #704 of 1096 ⚔️ WY vs NLY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (NLY vs. WY, OHI, WPC, REG)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) ranks #704 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #141 by equity capitalization ($14.55B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NLY leads on earnings valuation at 7.1x trailing P/E, while REG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.4% ROIC and — gross margin. OHI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with NLY at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NLY ACTIVE
Annaly Capital Management Inc.
D 48/100 7.1x — 4.0% -1.30% $14.55B Benchmark Subject
WY
Weyerhaeuser Company
D 45/100 43.9x — 4.1% +3.04% $14.23B /wy-vs-nly →
OHI
Omega Healthcare Investors Inc.
C+ 66/100 — — 0.0% +0.30% $14.19B /ohi-vs-nly →
WPC
W. P. Carey Inc.
C- 60/100 32.0x — 3.7% -1.22% $14.93B /wpc-vs-nly →
REG
Regency Centers Corporation
C 64/100 26.0x — 11.4% -0.52% $13.73B /reg-vs-nly →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001043219

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $2.05B, operating cash flow of $692.9M, and free cash flow of $692.9M (-79.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, NLY closed FY2025 with $135.61B in total assets against $53.75B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $0 $2.05B $692.9M $692.9M $135.61B $53.75B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $0 $1.01B $3.31B $3.31B $103.56B $40.89B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $0 -$1.64B $2.37B $2.37B $8.00B $1.87B

3. NLY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NYSE: NLY) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $18.23 (-1.30% 1D, market cap $14.55B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, NLY ranks #704 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NLY compare to WY and OHI in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), NLY carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.0%. By comparison, WY (Weyerhaeuser Company) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E 43.9x, ROIC 4.1%, cap $14.23B) and OHI (Omega Healthcare Investors Inc.) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.0%, cap $14.19B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NLY leads on earnings multiple (7.1x) while REG leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NLY?

Per NLY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001043219), Annaly Capital Management Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $2.05B in net income, and $692.9M in free cash flow against $135.61B in total assets and $53.75B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NLY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NLY last traded at $18.23 (-1.30% on volume of 13,045,167 shares), positioning the stock -9.35% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.11) and -16.72% below its 200-day simple moving average ($21.89). Across its 52-week range of $17.70 to $24.52, NLY sits at the 7.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.8% ($17.35 to $19.11).

NLY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell NLY stock right now?

Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 48/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 7x P/E (4% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is NLY's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

NLY's 12-month base price target is $17.41 (range $13.58 to $25.75), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 48/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

NLY — Annaly Capital Management Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:14:49Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, NLY holds an RQD Score of 48, graded D, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 5 / 20. Scored on ROIC of 4% and FCF yield of 3.5%. This is the weakest-contributing pillar in terms of cash generation relative to the scoring frame.
  • Whale / 13F Flow: 5 / 20. Institutional accumulation and options positioning are scored at the low end, indicating limited evidence of large-holder accumulation in the rating inputs.
  • Insider Conviction: 17 / 20. SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow are the strongest pillar, indicating the most favorable signal in the rating.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 6 / 20. Scored on Beta of 1.15 and sector sensitivity, indicating the rating treats the stock as exposed to the current regime.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 15 / 20. Supported by Altman Z of 2.5, Piotroski F of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5.

For a prospective investor, the rating's signal is that the cash-generation and institutional-flow pillars drag the score, while insider flow and balance-sheet forensics offer partial support. Upside drivers implied by the data are the insider-conviction and balance-sheet pillars; the valuation tradeoff is visible in the market data, where a P/E (TTM) of 7.1 and a dividend yield of 11.5% sit alongside an ROIC of 4% and FCF yield of 3.5%. The high yield and low earnings multiple should be weighed against the weak return-on-capital and cash-yield pillars. This is an analytical framing, not personalized financial advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
18.47$14.55B7.16.618.22.611.5%1.15$17.7 - $24.524%

Business

Per the Profile, Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry, with a market capitalization of $14.6B. The source data does not describe specific products, customers, or revenue-generation mechanics. Per the market data, the operating margin is 61.4% and net margin is 50.4%, while the gross margin is reported as 0%. Revenue is reported as $0.0M in each financial period in the source data.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$0.0M$2421.0M$2051.7MN/A$692.9MN/A$53752.5M
FY 2024$0.0M$1193.9M$1011.8MN/A$3310.7MN/A$40886.7M
FY 2023$0.0M$-1933.4M$-1638.5MN/A$2367.2MN/A$1872.8M

Per the SEC financials, net income moved from $-1638.5M in FY 2023 to $1011.8M in FY 2024 and $2051.7M in FY 2025, while reported debt rose from $1872.8M to $40886.7M and then $53752.5M over the same periods. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the forensic inputs are an Altman Z-Score of 2.5, a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and a Debt/Equity of 0.5; ROIC is 4% per the market data. Free cash flow fell from $3310.7M in FY 2024 to $692.9M in FY 2025 per the SEC financials. Cash is reported as N/A in all periods.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts feed, the following items are reported (all flagged YELLOW in the feed):

  • A Yahoo Finance report on NLY borrowing "$7 for Every $1 of Equity" and what that buys.
  • A Seeking Alpha piece on the dividend and a valuation discount.
  • An Investing.com report that the stock hit a 52-week low at 17.81 USD.
  • A Yahoo Finance report on a Series I Preferred redemption.
  • A MarketBeat report on a new 52-week low and a sell question.
  • A Seeking Alpha piece on a preferred share with a 9.31% dividend yield (NLY.PR.F).

Risk watch items implied by the feed: repeated 52-week-low reporting and leverage commentary. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no proprietary signals are reported.

Open Questions

  • What are the reported revenue and cash balances, given that revenue is shown as $0.0M and cash as N/A across all periods?
  • What drove the swing in debt from $1872.8M in FY 2023 to $53752.5M in FY 2025, and how does it relate to the reported Debt/Equity of 0.5?
  • What explains the decline in FCF from $3310.7M in FY 2024 to $692.9M in FY 2025?
  • How does the 11.5% dividend yield relate to the reported ROIC of 4% and FCF yield of 3.5%?
  • What is the basis for the Series I Preferred redemption referenced in the news feed, and how does it affect common shareholders?

NLY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NLY Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NLY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $18.23?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NLY 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NLY:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $19.95 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is NLY (D • RQD 48/100) a Buy at $18.47?

Welcome to the NLY (Annaly Capital Management Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 48/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Real Estate Investment Trusts. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RI RiskArb_Desk Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $14.78 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $18.47

Pump the brakes on NLY — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on NLY, but look at what you are paying: 7.1x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Annaly Capital Management Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MA MacroHawk_NYC Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $23.64 (+28.0%)
Spot @ $18.47

NLY cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on NLY, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Real Estate Investment Trusts and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $18.47 (52-wk range $17.70 - $24.52), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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