Stock Ratings / Materials / NL / options

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NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$7.11 +1.72% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.12

NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $341.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, NLI Holdings Inc. (NYSE: NL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $7.11 (+1.72% 1D, market cap $341.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 4/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, NL ranks #163 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NL compare to ASPI and SLI in the Materials sector?

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Within the Materials sector (Major Chemicals), NL carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 30.4%, and ROIC of 3.4%. By comparison, ASPI (ASP Isotopes Inc.) holds a E grade (21/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $326.5M) and SLI (Standard Lithium Ltd.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $358.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NL leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NL leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NL?

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Per NL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000072162), NLI Holdings Inc. generated $158.3M in revenue (+8.5% YoY), -$37.8M in net income, and -$40.1M in free cash flow against $464.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.12 (+0.12%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NL SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.8% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$6.74-1.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$6.65+0% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$6.65+6.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D$7.11-6.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (37) → D (45)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NL currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.84) and Max Pain ($7.47) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.03.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±6.8%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (NL)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for NL.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NL)

✓Walkthrough of NL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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NL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +20.51%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $7.04H $7.11L $6.99C $7.11VOL 13.3K

RES: $7.77SUP: $6.66SMA50: $6.84SMA200: $6.28

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NL Butterfly Map → + Track NL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

14.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NL)

Materials Rank #163 of 270 ⚔️ ASPI vs NL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (NL vs. ASPI, SLI, ADUR, OEC)

Industry: Major Chemicals (67 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) ranks #163 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #192 by equity capitalization ($341.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NL leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while NL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.4% ROIC and 30.4% gross margin. NL currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NL ACTIVE NLI Holdings Inc.	D	45/100	—	30.4%	3.4%	+1.72%	$341.8M	Benchmark Subject
ASPI ASP Isotopes Inc.	E	21/100	—	14.3%	-35.0%	-5.16%	$326.5M	/aspi-vs-nl →
SLI Standard Lithium Ltd.	D	45/100	—	—	—	-0.69%	$358.0M	/sli-vs-nl →
ADUR Aduro Clean Technologies Inc.	D	45/100	—	—	—	-1.07%	$367.4M	/adur-vs-nl →
OEC Orion S.A.	D-	39/100	—	19.9%	2.2%	+1.08%	$313.1M	/oec-vs-nl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000072162

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) reported GAAP revenue of $158.3M (+8.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $145.9M , and -1.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$37.8M, operating cash flow of -$36.4M, and free cash flow of -$40.1M (-266.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, NL closed FY2025 with $464.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$158.3M	-$37.8M	-$36.4M	-$40.1M	$464.2M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$145.9M	$67.2M	$25.6M	$24.1M	$578.3M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$161.3M	-$2.3M	$37.0M	$37.0M	—	—

3. NL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does NL compare to ASPI and SLI in the Materials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NL?

Where is NL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NL last traded at $7.11 (+1.72% on volume of 18,186 shares), positioning the stock +3.95% above its 50-day simple moving average ($6.84) and +13.22% above its 200-day simple moving average ($6.28). Across its 52-week range of $5.04 to $8.60, NL sits at the 58.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.8% ($6.63 to $7.59).

NL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is NL's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for NL.

Direct Sub-Reports: NL RQD Cockpit NL 12M Forecast NL Earnings & Move NL Dividends & DRIP NL Insiders & 13F NL Whale Options NL Profit Sankey NL News & Why

Sector Peer Dials

Standard Lithium Ltd.

45 /100

ADUR D

Aduro Clean Technologies Inc.

NL Core Snapshot

Market Cap $341.8M

Trailing / Fwd P/E — / —

Gross Profit Margin 30.4%

Return on Capital (ROIC) 3.4%

Free Cash Flow Yield -11.75%

12M Base Price Target $6.69

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NL Wire

Why It Moved →

Direct Company Event Yahoo Finance • 8h ago

NLI HOLDINGS ANNOUNCES QUARTERLY DIVIDEND FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2026 AT $.10 PER SHARE

Direct Company Event TradingView • 11h ago

NLI Holdings Declares $0.10 Per-Share Dividend for Q4 2026

Direct Company Event marketscreener.com • 14h ago

NLI Holdings Keeps Quarterly Dividend at $0.10 a Share, Payable Dec. 15 to Shareholders of Record on Nov. 19

Direct Company Event Yahoo Finance • 17h ago

NLI HOLDINGS ANNOUNCES EXPECTED THIRD QUARTER 2026 EARNINGS RELEASE DATE

Direct Company Event Fintel • 3d ago

NL Industries, Inc. Announces Quarterly Dividend of $0.10 Per Share

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 45/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

NL — NLI Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:38:10Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, NL scores 45 out of 100 with a letter grade of D, labeled "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 8 / 20. The rating cites ROIC of 3.4% and FCF yield of -11.75%. For an investor, this pillar carries the most weight against the stock: the business is currently not generating free cash relative to its market value.
Whale 13F Flow: 11 / 20. Described as institutional accumulation and options positioning. The underlying holder data is not provided (see Analyst View section), so the score cannot be traced to specific filings.
Insider Conviction: 4 / 20. The lowest pillar score, reflecting SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow as weak in the rating's assessment. This is the clearest negative signal on insider conviction.
Macro Regime Fit: 11 / 20. Beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity are cited. A beta of 1.0 means the rating treats the stock as moving in line with the market; it does not indicate a defensive profile.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 11 / 20. The rating cites Altman Z of 2.5, Piotroski F of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5. These are middling readings rather than distress or strength.

Investor implications: upside, if it comes, would need to be driven by an improvement in cash generation, since the cash engine pillar is the weakest fundamental input and the rating does not identify a catalyst that resolves it. The 5.15% dividend yield and 16.7x EV/EBITDA are presented in the data, but the negative FCF yield raises the question of how sustainable the yield is relative to cash generation. The overall rating is a distribution warning, meaning the framework reads the current setup as unfavorable for accumulation.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$158.3M	$10.7M	$-37.8M	N/A	$-40.1M	$110.6M	N/A
FY 2024	$145.9M	$37.9M	$67.2M	N/A	$24.1M	$163.2M	N/A
FY 2023	$161.3M	$14.1M	$-2.3M	N/A	$37.0M	N/A	N/A

Per the SEC financials and market data, gross margin is 30.4%, operating margin 6.7%, and net margin -23.9%. ROIC is 3.4%. The rating cites an Altman Z-Score of 2.5 and a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9. Cash declined from $163.2M (FY 2024) to $110.6M (FY 2025) while FY 2025 free cash flow was negative at $-40.1M; debt is Not available in source data, though Debt/Equity of 0.5 is cited in the rating.

Open Questions

What are NL's specific products, customers, and revenue drivers behind the $158.3M FY 2025 revenue?
What drove the swing from FY 2024 net income of $67.2M to FY 2025 net loss of $-37.8M despite positive operating income of $10.7M?
What is the total debt figure, and how does it reconcile with the cited Debt/Equity of 0.5?
How is the 5.15% dividend yield being funded given the -11.75% FCF yield?
Which institutional and insider holders are behind the Whale 13F and Insider pillar scores?

NL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NL Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 8h ago

NLI HOLDINGS ANNOUNCES QUARTERLY DIVIDEND FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2026 AT $.10 PER SHARE

Yahoo Finance report covering NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 11h ago

NLI Holdings Declares $0.10 Per-Share Dividend for Q4 2026

TradingView report covering NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST marketscreener.com • 14h ago

NLI Holdings Keeps Quarterly Dividend at $0.10 a Share, Payable Dec. 15 to Shareholders of Record on Nov. 19

marketscreener.com report covering NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 17h ago

NLI HOLDINGS ANNOUNCES EXPECTED THIRD QUARTER 2026 EARNINGS RELEASE DATE

Yahoo Finance report covering NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Fintel • 3d ago

NL Industries, Inc. Announces Quarterly Dividend of $0.10 Per Share

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 40d ago

NL Upgraded to Outperform on CompX Strength, Kronos Recovery

NLI Holdings' "Outperform" upgrade reflects stronger CompX margins, broad Security Products demand and improved Kronos execution after restructuring.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 172d ago

NL INDUSTRIES, INC. ANNOUNCES QUARTERLY DIVIDEND AND RESULTS OF ANNUAL SHAREHOLDER MEETING

Dallas, Texas, May 14, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- NL Industries, Inc. (NYSE: NL) announced that its board of directors has declared a quarterly dividend of ten cents ($0.10) per share on its common stock, payable on June 2

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 180d ago

NL REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS

Dallas, Texas, May 06, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- NL Industries, Inc. (NYSE: NL) today reported net income attributable to NL stockholders of $4.3 million, or $.09 per share, in the first quarter of 2026 compared to $.7 mi

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $7.11?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NL 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $6.15 (-12.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is NL (D • RQD 45/100) a Buy at $6.99?

Welcome to the NL (NLI Holdings Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 45/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Major Chemicals. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $5.52 (-21.0%)

Spot @ $6.99

Pump the brakes on NL — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on NL, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 30.4% gross margins. Unless NLI Holdings Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $7.97 (+14.0%)

Spot @ $6.99

NL cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on NL, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Major Chemicals and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $6.99 (52-wk range $5.04 - $8.60), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.