Nike Inc. (NKE) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

NKE scores 61 out of 100, grading C- and carrying the verdict "Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral." The five pillars are:

• Fundamental Cash Engine: 14 / 20. this pillar reflects ROIC of 21.2% and an FCF yield of 3.83%. Strong capital returns sit alongside a modest free-cash yield at the current price, which suggests the stock is not cheap on cash generation even though the business earns well on invested capital.
• Whale 13F Flow: 11 / 20. this pillar measures institutional accumulation and options positioning. The score is below midpoint, indicating institutional flow is not a strong tailwind in the source data.
• Insider Conviction: 15 / 20. this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow.
• Macro Regime Fit: 7 / 20. this pillar reflects beta of 1.16 and sector sensitivity. This is the weakest pillar and signals that the stock is exposed to broader market and sector swings.
• Forensic Balance Sheet: 14 / 20. this pillar reflects Altman Z of 3.82, Piotroski F of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5. Balance sheet health is reasonable rather than exceptional.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the rating points to a balanced but unexciting picture. The upside case rests on high returns on capital, a 4.22% dividend yield, and a forward P/E of 17.1 that sits below the trailing 18.4. The main valuation tradeoff is that the weakest pillar, macro regime fit, reflects elevated sensitivity to market moves, and the recent news flow is largely negative in tone. The rating frames NKE as a hold-oriented candidate for further evaluation rather than a clear accumulation signal.

Nike Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Shoe Manufacturing industry. The market capitalization is $57.1B. — for product detail, customer segments, or revenue mix beyond the figures below. Per the market data, the company reports a gross margin of 42.9%, an operating margin of 8.2%, and a net margin of 6.7%.

Revenue was broadly flat between FY 2024 and FY 2025 while net income declined, and operating income fell from $6.73B in FY 2023 to $3.67B in FY 2025. Per the market data, the operating margin is 8.2% and the net margin is 6.7%. ROIC is 21.2%, the Altman Z-Score is 3.82, and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9. Debt/Equity is 0.5. Debt fell from $14.42B in FY 2023 to $7.02B in FY 2025, while cash declined from $7.98B to $6.97B over the same two years.

• 🐂 Primary Bull Case: NKE trades at a forward P/E of 17.1 with ROIC of 21.2% and a 4.22% dividend yield. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 (ROIC 21.2%, FCF yield 3.83%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 11/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $31.97 – $69.14 52-week range.
• 🐻 Primary Bear Case: Macro regime fit scores only 7 of 20 with beta of 1.16, and a Morningstar report cuts fair value by 44% on intensifying competition. Investors must weigh 18.4x trailing P/E and 13.1x EV/EBITDA against 8.2% operating margins and a 1.16 macro beta if sector demand softens.

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph records no upstream or downstream links, no sector correlations, and no proprietary signals. Within the news feed, the recurring themes are China exposure and competitive pressure in core brands, which point to revenue sensitivity outside the supply chain. The data does not quantify these ripples.

• Key Question #1: What drove the drop in operating income from FY 2023 to FY 2025, and how much of it reflects China or core-brand weakness versus other factors?
• Key Question #2: Why is EPS reported as N/A across all three periods, and how does it reconcile with the TTM EPS of 2.09?
• Key Question #3: What is the basis for the Morningstar fair value cut, and what competitive dynamics does it cite?