Should I buy, hold, or sell SHOO stock right now?

Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C (Hold — HOLD) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. Solid 42% profit margin (7% return on capital), mixed timing at 74x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is SHOO's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

SHOO's 12-month base price target is $44.31 (range $34.56 to $52.29), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / SHOO

BIRK (54) WWW (71) CROX (68) DECK (75) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$43.53 +0.07% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $43.45

Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $3.18B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SHOO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SHOO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Steven Madden Ltd. (NASDAQ: SHOO) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $43.53 (+0.07% 1D, market cap $3.18B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SHOO ranks #285 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SHOO compare to BIRK and WWW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Shoe Manufacturing), SHOO carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 73.6x, gross margin of 41.6%, and ROIC of 6.5%. By comparison, BIRK (Birkenstock Holding plc) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $5.52B) and WWW (Wolverine World Wide Inc.) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 17.6x, ROIC 12.4%, cap $1.71B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DECK leads on earnings multiple (11.0x) while DECK leads on capital efficiency (73.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SHOO?

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Per SHOO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000913241), Steven Madden Ltd. generated $2.52B in revenue (+11.0% YoY), $44.7M in net income, and $119.5M in free cash flow against $1.91B in total assets and $234.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (42% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $43.45 (-0.18%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 4.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SHOO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SHOO SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 5.00 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.7% FCF Margin ($119.5M FCF) & 41.6% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (46.6) create a -10 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$44.75+0.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$45.06-5.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$42.78+1.8% Next Q

Current

Grade C$43.53+0.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (70) → C (62)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SHOO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, SHOO faces multiple-compression risk if 73.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Priced at 74x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($43.91) or 200D SMA ($41.35) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($44.31) toward Bear Floor ($34.56).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SHOO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SHOO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 62%NO 38%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

46.630 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

5.00>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

8 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE66% OF RANGE

L: $31$43.53H: $50

1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (42% profit margin and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: BRQD 15 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on SHOO

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (75)

6.5% ROIC with 41.6% gross margin and 3.64% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (80)

Altman-Z 5.00 and Piotroski 8/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (52)

21/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like SHOO

✓Strong cash generator (42% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Priced at 74x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (SHOO Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

SHOO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +19.52%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL

2026-11-03O $44.93H $44.93L $43.50C $43.53VOL 1.22M

RES: $46.71SUP: $42.05SMA50: $43.91SMA200: $41.35

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SHOO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SHOO Butterfly Map → + Track SHOO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

47.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SHOO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SHOO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SHOO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SHOO)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #285 of 1011 ⚔️ BIRK vs SHOO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (SHOO vs. BIRK, WWW, CROX, DECK)

Industry: Shoe Manufacturing (9 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) ranks #285 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #349 by equity capitalization ($3.18B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DECK leads on earnings valuation at 11.0x trailing P/E, while DECK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 73.9% ROIC and 57.7% gross margin. DECK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with SHOO at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SHOO ACTIVE Steven Madden Ltd.	C	62/100	73.6x	41.6%	6.5%	+0.07%	$3.18B	Benchmark Subject
BIRK Birkenstock Holding plc	D+	54/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	+6.31%	$5.52B	/birk-vs-shoo →
WWW Wolverine World Wide Inc.	B-	71/100	17.6x	47.3%	12.4%	+2.89%	$1.71B	/www-vs-shoo →
CROX Crocs Inc.	C+	68/100	—	58.3%	4.9%	+1.73%	$6.88B	/crox-vs-shoo →
DECK Deckers Outdoor Corporation	B	75/100	11.0x	57.7%	73.9%	+3.67%	$10.94B	/deck-vs-shoo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000913241

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) reported GAAP revenue of $2.52B (+11.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.27B , and +27.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $44.7M, operating cash flow of $162.2M, and free cash flow of $119.5M (-30.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, SHOO closed FY2025 with $1.91B in total assets against $234.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.00, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$2.52B	$44.7M	$162.2M	$119.5M	$1.91B	$234.2M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.27B	$169.4M	$198.1M	$172.2M	$1.41B	$0
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.97B	$171.6M	$229.2M	$229.2M	—	—

3. SHOO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SHOO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does SHOO compare to BIRK and WWW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SHOO?

Where is SHOO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SHOO last traded at $43.53 (+0.07% on volume of 1,313,639 shares), positioning the stock -0.87% below its 50-day simple moving average ($43.91) and +5.27% above its 200-day simple moving average ($41.35). Across its 52-week range of $31.33 to $49.70, SHOO sits at the 66.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.5% ($40.27 to $46.79).

Direct Sub-Reports: SHOO RQD Cockpit SHOO 12M Forecast SHOO Earnings & Move SHOO Dividends & DRIP SHOO Insiders & 13F SHOO Whale Options SHOO Profit Sankey SHOO News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 62/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SHOO — Steven Madden Ltd.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 62/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $43.53 (+0.07% 1D, market capitalization $3.18B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 6.5%, gross margin of 41.6%, operating margin of 3.2%, and free cash flow yield of 3.64%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 5.00, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.27x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Shoe Manufacturing industry. Per the recent news wire, the company's brand grew from a $1,100 start in 1990 to selling more than $1 billion in merchandise annually. FY 2025 revenue was $2.52B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) reported $2.52B in annual revenue (up from $2.27B in FY2024, +11.0% YoY) and $44.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.97B revenue, $171.6M net income) through FY2025, SHOO scaled operating cash flow to $162.2M and free cash flow to $119.5M, backed by $1.91B in total assets against $234.2M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 62/100): Strong cash generator (42% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $31.33 – $49.70 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 73.6x trailing P/E and 29.1x EV/EBITDA against 3.2% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Shoe Manufacturing (Consumer Discretionary), SHOO carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 41.6%.

Key Question #1: Can SHOO sustain or expand its 3.2% operating margin and 6.5% ROIC against Shoe Manufacturing peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.52B and free cash flow of $119.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $234.2M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is SHOO's 68.4x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

SHOO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SHOO Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 20h ago

Steven Madden (SHOO): buy, sell, or hold post Q2 earnings?

Yahoo Finance report covering Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 23h ago

Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) - What Are Brokerages Saying About This Stock?

MarketBeat report covering Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Steven Madden Gears Up to Report Q3 Earnings: What Should You Expect?

Yahoo Finance report covering Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Steven Madden (NASDAQ:SHOO) Stock Crosses Above Fifty Day Moving Average - Time to Sell?

MarketBeat report covering Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Steve Madden Started His Shoe Business in 1990 With Just $1,100; 30 Years Later, His Brand Was Selling More Than $1 Billion in Merchandise Annually

Yahoo Finance report covering Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE ad-hoc-news.de • 1d ago

Argus lowers target to USD 47.00 for Steven Madden stock

ad-hoc-news.de report covering Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Steven Madden (SHOO) Expected to Post Earnings on Thursday

MarketBeat report covering Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 1d ago

Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) Stock Forecasts

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SHOO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $43.53?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SHOO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $53.94 (+24.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet scores 16/20 with an Altman Z of 5 and a Piotroski F of 8/9, supporting solvency quality.

Here is why I am bullish on SHOO here at $43.50: Forensic balance sheet scores 16/20 with an Altman Z of 5 and a Piotroski F of 8/9, supporting solvency quality.. Compare SHOO's 3.2% operating margin and 6.5% ROIC against the rest of Shoe Manufacturing. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $41.32 are getting bought.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Fair point on 73.6x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Shoe Manufacturing. If gross margin (41.6%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $36.98 (-15.0%)

Spot @ $43.50

Trailing P/E of 73.6 against ROIC of 6.5% and an operating margin of 3.2% leaves little room for earnings disappointment.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short SHOO above $43.50. Trailing P/E of 73.6 against ROIC of 6.5% and an operating margin of 3.2% leaves little room for earnings disappointment.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20) and FCF yield (3.64%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $49.70.