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Materion Corporation (MTRN) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$216.84 -2.30% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $215.53

Materion Corporation (MTRN) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $4.62B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MTRN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Materion Corporation (NYSE: MTRN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $216.84 (-2.30% 1D, market cap $4.62B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, MTRN ranks #162 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MTRN compare to AZZ and MAS in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Specialties), MTRN carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 66.8x, gross margin of 17.3%, and ROIC of 6.4%. By comparison, AZZ (AZZ Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 13.0x, ROIC 11.3%, cap $4.02B) and MAS (Masco Corporation) posts a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 19.1x, ROIC 46.7%, cap $15.54B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TRS leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while MAS leads on capital efficiency (46.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTRN?
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Per MTRN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001104657), Materion Corporation generated $1.79B in revenue (+6.0% YoY), $74.8M in net income, and $103.2M in free cash flow against $1.80B in total assets and $436.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $215.54 (-0.60%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 5.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510056
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk C+
Cash (13)Whales (7)SEC (15)Macro (12)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target
$341 Bull$215 Base$168 Bear
📬 FREE MTRN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MTRN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MTRN SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 5.8% FCF Margin ($103.2M FCF) & 17.3% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
64
Grade C+$271.84-11.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
61
Grade C$239.72-1.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
59
Grade C$235.63-8% Next Q
Current
56
Grade D+$216.84-0.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (64) → D+ (56)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MTRN Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, MTRN faces multiple-compression risk if 66.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Priced at 67x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($253.01) or 200D SMA ($212.74) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($214.89) toward Bear Floor ($167.61).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MTRN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MTRN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your MTRN Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $216.84: 46.1 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $167.61
$7,730
$-2,270 (-22.7%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $214.89
$9,910
$-90 (-0.9%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $341.24
$15,737
+$5,737 (+57.4%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$22374%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$32169%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$19158%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MTRN)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MTRN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MTRN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +14.49%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $239.8H $239.8L $216.8C $216.8VOL 198.2K
RES: $333.2SUP: $211.6SMA50: $253.0SMA200: $212.7
$338.5$282.5$226.5$170.6$114.6RES $333.2SUP $211.6$216.82026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MTRN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MTRN Butterfly Map → + Track MTRN →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
44.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MTRN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MTRN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MTRN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MTRN)

Industrials Rank #162 of 485 ⚔️ AZZ vs MTRN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (MTRN vs. AZZ, MAS, TRS, XPEL)

Industry: Industrial Specialties (55 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Materion Corporation (MTRN) ranks #162 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #151 by equity capitalization ($4.62B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TRS leads on earnings valuation at 11.5x trailing P/E, while MAS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 46.7% ROIC and 35.4% gross margin. MAS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with MTRN at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MTRN ACTIVE
Materion Corporation
D+ 56/100 66.8x 17.3% 6.4% -2.30% $4.62B Benchmark Subject
AZZ
AZZ Inc.
C 65/100 13.0x 23.9% 11.3% +1.93% $4.02B /azz-vs-mtrn →
MAS
Masco Corporation
B+ 76/100 19.1x 35.4% 46.7% +3.56% $15.54B /mas-vs-mtrn →
TRS
TriMas Corporation
D 51/100 11.5x 21.4% 4.8% +4.67% $1.37B /trs-vs-mtrn →
XPEL
XPEL Inc.
B 72/100 24.6x 42.2% 21.6% -1.76% $1.26B /xpel-vs-mtrn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001104657

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Materion Corporation (MTRN) reported GAAP revenue of $1.79B (+6.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.68B , and +7.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $74.8M, operating cash flow of $103.2M, and free cash flow of $103.2M (+438.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, MTRN closed FY2025 with $1.80B in total assets against $436.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.79B $74.8M $103.2M $103.2M $1.80B $436.3M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.68B $5.9M $87.8M $19.2M $1.70B $407.7M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.67B $95.7M $144.4M $144.4M — —

3. MTRN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MTRN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Materion Corporation (NYSE: MTRN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $216.84 (-2.30% 1D, market cap $4.62B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, MTRN ranks #162 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MTRN compare to AZZ and MAS in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Specialties), MTRN carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 66.8x, gross margin of 17.3%, and ROIC of 6.4%. By comparison, AZZ (AZZ Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 13.0x, ROIC 11.3%, cap $4.02B) and MAS (Masco Corporation) posts a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 19.1x, ROIC 46.7%, cap $15.54B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TRS leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while MAS leads on capital efficiency (46.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTRN?

Per MTRN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001104657), Materion Corporation generated $1.79B in revenue (+6.0% YoY), $74.8M in net income, and $103.2M in free cash flow against $1.80B in total assets and $436.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MTRN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MTRN last traded at $216.84 (-2.30% on volume of 190,634 shares), positioning the stock -14.30% below its 50-day simple moving average ($253.01) and +1.93% above its 200-day simple moving average ($212.74). Across its 52-week range of $110.69 to $324.99, MTRN sits at the 49.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.0% ($192.99 to $240.69).

Direct Sub-Reports: MTRN RQD Cockpit MTRN 12M Forecast MTRN Earnings & Move MTRN Dividends & DRIP MTRN Insiders & 13F MTRN Whale Options MTRN Profit Sankey MTRN News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 56/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MTRN — Materion Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Materion Corporation (MTRN) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 56/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $216.84 (-2.30% 1D, market capitalization $4.62B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 6.4%, gross margin of 17.3%, operating margin of 6.1%, and free cash flow yield of 2.07%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (9/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.46x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Materion Corporation (MTRN) is a NYSE-listed operating company in the Industrial Specialties industry (Industrials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $4.62B. The business operates with a gross margin of 17.3%, an operating margin of 6.1%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 6.4% (free cash flow yield of 2.07%). Within the Industrial Specialties peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Materion Corporation (MTRN) reported $1.79B in annual revenue (up from $1.68B in FY2024, +6.0% YoY) and $74.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.67B revenue, $95.7M net income) through FY2025, MTRN scaled operating cash flow to $103.2M and free cash flow to $103.2M, backed by $1.80B in total assets against $436.3M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 56/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 2.07% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $110.69 – $324.99 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 66.8x trailing P/E and 49.4x EV/EBITDA against 6.1% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Industrial Specialties (Industrials), MTRN carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 17.3%.

  • Key Question #1: Can MTRN sustain or expand its 6.1% operating margin and 6.4% ROIC against Industrial Specialties peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.79B and free cash flow of $103.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $436.3M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MTRN's 62.1x forward P/E multiple to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

MTRN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Materion Corporation (MTRN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MTRN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MTRN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $216.84?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MTRN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MTRN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $272.99 (+23.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Balance-sheet forensics are the strongest pillar, with Piotroski F 8/9, Altman Z 2.5, and Debt/Equity 0.46 supporting financial resilie

The street is overcomplicating Materion Corporation (MTRN). Balance-sheet forensics are the strongest pillar, with Piotroski F 8/9, Altman Z 2.5, and Debt/Equity 0.46 supporting financial resilience.. With an RQD score of 56/100 (D+) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 15/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $239.70.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — MTRN's 15/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $181.99 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $221.94

Valuation is stretched at P/E (TTM) 66.8 and EV/EBITDA 49.4 while ROIC is only 6.4% and FCF yield 2.07%.

Valuation is stretched at P/E (TTM) 66.8 and EV/EBITDA 49.4 while ROIC is only 6.4% and FCF yield 2.07%.. Look at the math on MTRN: paying 66.8x trailing P/E for 6.4% ROIC and 6.1% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Industrial Specialties demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $195.31 before getting long.

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