Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$199.22 -3.26% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $197.67

Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $82.13B
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HWM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Howmet Aerospace Inc. (NYSE: HWM) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $199.22 (-3.26% 1D, market cap $82.13B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, HWM ranks #85 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HWM compare to PH and RS in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Metal Fabrications), HWM carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 54.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 21.6%. By comparison, PH (Parker-Hannifin Corporation) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 33.2x, ROIC 16.6%, cap $117.09B) and RS (Reliance Inc.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 30.3x, ROIC 9.6%, cap $22.40B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MLI leads on earnings multiple (15.9x) while MLI leads on capital efficiency (41.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HWM?
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Per HWM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000004281), Howmet Aerospace Inc. generated $8.25B in revenue (+11.1% YoY), $1.51B in net income, and $1.43B in free cash flow against $11.18B in total assets and $2.86B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $197.67 (-0.78%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.32% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 17.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510065
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C+
Cash (18)Whales (7)SEC (18)Macro (9)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.2% Base Target
$326 Bull$206 Base$160 Bear
📬 FREE HWM RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HWM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HWM SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 17.3% FCF Margin ($1.43B FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 10.53 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
73
Grade B$216.84-2.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
70
Grade B$211.63-9.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
68
Grade B-$191.99+3.8% Next Q
Current
65
Grade C$199.22+1.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (73) → C (65)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HWM Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, HWM faces multiple-compression risk if 54.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Priced at 55x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($226.57) or 200D SMA ($248.51) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($205.50) toward Bear Floor ($160.29).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HWM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HWM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
0.6% Total Yield
0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 0.6% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
74/100 • REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
0% (100% Reinvested)
Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (6.7% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $19,127

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $115/yr
$10.7K
Yr 1
$11.4K
Yr 2
$12.1K
Yr 3
$13.0K
Yr 4
$13.8K
Yr 5
$14.8K
Yr 6
$15.7K
Yr 7
$16.8K
Yr 8
$17.9K
Yr 9
$19.1K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Cash-Flow & Quality Compounder Desk

Cash-Fortress Compounders: Auditing Free Cash Flow & Yield Safety in HWM & A-Rated Leaders

  • ✓12-month Bull/Base/Bear fair-value walkthrough on HWM and its top sector peer
  • ✓Top Roarable A-Rated cash compounders with verified executive & 13F accumulation
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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HWM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -16.89%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $195.2H $205.9L $195.2C $199.2VOL 5.83M
RES: $339.3SUP: $177.2SMA50: $226.6SMA200: $248.5
$318.9$282.2$245.5$208.8$172.1RES $339.3SUP $177.2$199.22026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HWM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
38.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HWM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HWM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HWM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HWM)

Industrials Rank #85 of 485 ⚔️ PH vs HWM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (HWM vs. PH, RS, RBC, MLI)

Industry: Metal Fabrications (47 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) ranks #85 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #17 by equity capitalization ($82.13B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MLI leads on earnings valuation at 15.9x trailing P/E, while MLI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 41.1% ROIC and — gross margin. RS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with HWM at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HWM ACTIVE
Howmet Aerospace Inc.
C 65/100 54.5x — 21.6% -3.26% $82.13B Benchmark Subject
PH
Parker-Hannifin Corporation
C 62/100 33.2x 36.9% 16.6% -3.08% $117.09B /ph-vs-hwm →
RS
Reliance Inc.
B 72/100 30.3x — 9.6% -0.64% $22.40B /rs-vs-hwm →
RBC
RBC Bearings Incorporated
C- 61/100 54.6x 44.4% 8.6% -6.76% $15.69B /rbc-vs-hwm →
MLI
Mueller Industries Inc.
C+ 67/100 15.9x — 41.1% -2.19% $12.16B /mli-vs-hwm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000004281

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) reported GAAP revenue of $8.25B (+11.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.43B , and +24.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.51B, operating cash flow of $1.88B, and free cash flow of $1.43B (+46.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, HWM closed FY2025 with $11.18B in total assets against $2.86B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 10.53, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $8.25B $1.51B $1.88B $1.43B $11.18B $2.86B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $7.43B $1.16B $1.30B $977.0M $10.52B $3.31B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $6.64B $765.0M $901.0M $602.2M $45.17B $10.57B

3. HWM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HWM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Howmet Aerospace Inc. (NYSE: HWM) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $199.22 (-3.26% 1D, market cap $82.13B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, HWM ranks #85 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HWM compare to PH and RS in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Metal Fabrications), HWM carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 54.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 21.6%. By comparison, PH (Parker-Hannifin Corporation) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 33.2x, ROIC 16.6%, cap $117.09B) and RS (Reliance Inc.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 30.3x, ROIC 9.6%, cap $22.40B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MLI leads on earnings multiple (15.9x) while MLI leads on capital efficiency (41.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HWM?

Per HWM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000004281), Howmet Aerospace Inc. generated $8.25B in revenue (+11.1% YoY), $1.51B in net income, and $1.43B in free cash flow against $11.18B in total assets and $2.86B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HWM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HWM last traded at $199.22 (-3.26% on volume of 3,739,967 shares), positioning the stock -12.07% below its 50-day simple moving average ($226.57) and -19.83% below its 200-day simple moving average ($248.51). Across its 52-week range of $183.52 to $310.00, HWM sits at the 12.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.3% ($182.68 to $215.76).

HWM Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Does HWM pay a dividend and is it safe?

Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) offers a 0% cash dividend yield ($0.00 annualized) and 0.6% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 65/100 (C) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

HWM — Howmet Aerospace Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:10:13Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, HWM carries an RQD Score of 65 out of 100, a letter grade of C, and a verdict label of "Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 18 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 21.6% and an FCF yield of 1.74%. The strong return on invested capital is the main upside driver in this pillar, while the low FCF yield signals that the cash generated is large relative to the price paid only in a limited sense: investors are paying a high multiple for each dollar of free cash flow.
  • Whale / 13F Flow: 7 / 20. Per the RQD rating, institutional accumulation and options positioning score weakly. This is the lowest-scoring pillar and indicates limited evidence of smart-money conviction in the source data.
  • Insider Conviction: 13 / 20. Per the RQD rating, SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow score moderately, indicating some insider signal without a strong cluster.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 9 / 20. Per the RQD rating, beta of 1.1 and sector sensitivity place this pillar at a middling-to-weak level, meaning the stock is somewhat more volatile than the market and exposed to cyclical conditions.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 18 / 20. Per the RQD rating, Altman Z of 10.53, Piotroski F of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.53 indicate a strong balance sheet with low financial-distress risk.

For a prospective investor, the combination is a high-quality, financially sound business (strong returns, clean balance sheet) priced at a demanding valuation (P/E TTM of 54.5 and EV/EBITDA of 34.7 per the market data), with weak institutional flow and a middling macro fit. The "Hold" verdict reflects this balance of quality against valuation and flow risk. This is an analytical framing, not personalized financial advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
205.94$82.13B54.550.734.73.780%1.1$183.52 - $31021.6%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$8252.0M$2046.0M$1508.0MN/A$1431.0M$742.0M$2859.0M
FY 2024$7430.0M$1633.0M$1155.0MN/A$977.0M$564.0M$3309.0M
FY 2023$6640.0M$1203.0M$765.0MN/A$602.2MN/A$10570.0M

Per the SEC financials, revenue, operating income, net income, and free cash flow grew across the three reported periods, and debt declined from $10570.0M in FY 2023 to $2859.0M in FY 2025. Per the market data, operating margin is 24.8%, net margin is 18.3%, and ROIC is 21.6%. Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 10.53 and the Piotroski F-Score is 9/9, both consistent with strong financial health; Debt/Equity is 0.53. Gross margin is reported as 0% in the market data, which does not appear to be a meaningful figure and should be treated with caution.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, six headlines were captured, all related to HWM:

  • Yahoo Finance (RISK WATCH, RED): a report on the stock falling amid a market uptick.
  • Moomoo (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW): a report explaining why the stock is down on the day.
  • Seeking Alpha (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW): a report titled as a strong quarter but with a rich valuation.
  • Trefis (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW): a report describing five consecutive red trading days and a 16% decline.
  • StockInvest.us (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW): a price forecast and buy-question piece.
  • Yahoo! Finance Canada (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW): a general quote and history page.

Per the news feed, the summaries are generic and do not disclose specific fundamental catalysts. The single RED-flagged item is the RISK WATCH headline. Per the butterfly supply-chain graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What are the specific products, end markets, and customers driving revenue, since the source data provides only sector classification?
  • What is the reported EPS for each period, given that the financials list EPS as N/A for all three years?
  • What explains the 52-week decline from $310 to a low of $183.52, and what drove the five consecutive red days noted in the news feed?
  • What is the source of the cash balance and debt trajectory, particularly the drop in debt from $10570.0M to $2859.0M?
  • What supply-chain dependencies and sector correlations exist, given that the butterfly graph records none?

HWM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HWM Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HWM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $199.22?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HWM 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HWM:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $222.42 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is HWM (C • RQD 65/100) a Buy at $205.94?

Welcome to the HWM (Howmet Aerospace Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 65/100 (Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Metal Fabrications. Bulls point to capital efficiency (21.6% ROIC), while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (54.5x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $160.63 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $205.94

Pump the brakes on HWM — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on HWM, but look at what you are paying: 54.5x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Howmet Aerospace Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MA MacroHawk_NYC Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $247.13 (+20.0%)
Spot @ $205.94

HWM cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on HWM, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Metal Fabrications and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $205.94 (52-wk range $183.52 - $310.00), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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