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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / HLLY / forecast
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Holley Inc. (HLLY) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$2.75 +4.56% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.77

Holley Inc. (HLLY) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $318.8M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HLLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Holley Inc. (NYSE: HLLY) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $2.75 (+4.56% 1D, market cap $318.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HLLY ranks #511 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HLLY compare to CPS and STRT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Parts:O.E.M.), HLLY carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.8x, gross margin of 43.4%, and ROIC of 7.0%. By comparison, CPS (Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc.) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 85.0%, cap $356.6M) and STRT (STRATTEC SECURITY CORPORATION) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 12.5x, ROIC 15.2%, cap $250.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, STRT leads on earnings multiple (12.5x) while CPS leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HLLY?
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Per HLLY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001822928), Holley Inc. generated $613.5M in revenue (+1.9% YoY), $19.2M in net income, and $33.9M in free cash flow against $1.16B in total assets and $516.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.77 (+0.63%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 5.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510052
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D
Cash (8)Whales (8)SEC (10)Macro (9)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.5% Base Target
$5 Bull$3 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE HLLY RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HLLY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HLLY SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (33% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (19% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.32 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
44
Grade D$2.54-0.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
47
Grade D$2.52+2.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
49
Grade D$2.58+6.6% Next Q
Current
52
Grade D+$2.75-1.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (44) → D+ (52)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HLLY Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While HLLY currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.61) and Max Pain ($2.89) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $4.70.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HLLY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HLLY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 52%NO 48%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your HLLY Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $2.75: 3636.4 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $2.09
$7,600
$-2,400 (-24.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $2.68
$9,745
$-255 (-2.5%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $4.70
$17,091
+$7,091 (+70.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$374%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$469%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$258%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HLLY)

  • ✓Walkthrough of HLLY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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HLLY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -15.38%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $2.66H $2.75L $2.63C $2.75VOL 569.3K
RES: $3.58SUP: $2.23SMA50: $2.61SMA200: $2.99
$3.62$3.25$2.88$2.51$2.13RES $3.58SUP $2.23$2.752026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HLLY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HLLY Butterfly Map → + Track HLLY →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
9.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HLLY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HLLY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HLLY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HLLY)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #511 of 1009 ⚔️ CPS vs HLLY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (HLLY vs. CPS, STRT, MPAA, SRI)

Industry: Auto Parts:O.E.M. (36 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Holley Inc. (HLLY) ranks #511 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #637 by equity capitalization ($318.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, STRT leads on earnings valuation at 12.5x trailing P/E, while CPS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 11.9% gross margin. MPAA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 56/100 (D+) compared with HLLY at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HLLY ACTIVE
Holley Inc.
D+ 52/100 16.8x 43.4% 7.0% +4.56% $318.8M Benchmark Subject
CPS
Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc.
D- 42/100 — 11.9% 85.0% +4.04% $356.6M /cps-vs-hlly →
STRT
STRATTEC SECURITY CORPORATION
D+ 54/100 12.5x 16.5% 15.2% +1.31% $250.0M /strt-vs-hlly →
MPAA
Motorcar Parts of America Inc.
D+ 56/100 16.3x 20.2% 21.6% +0.87% $195.2M /mpaa-vs-hlly →
SRI
Stoneridge Inc.
D- 40/100 — 19.9% -24.1% +1.59% $162.0M /sri-vs-hlly →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001822928 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Holley Inc. (HLLY) reported GAAP revenue of $613.5M (+1.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $602.2M , and -7.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $19.2M, operating cash flow of $46.2M, and free cash flow of $33.9M (-15.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, HLLY closed FY2025 with $1.16B in total assets against $516.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.32, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $613.5M $19.2M $46.2M $33.9M $1.16B $516.1M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $602.2M -$23.2M $46.9M $40.1M $1.13B $545.4M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $659.7M $19.2M $88.1M $88.1M — —

3. HLLY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HLLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Holley Inc. (NYSE: HLLY) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $2.75 (+4.56% 1D, market cap $318.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HLLY ranks #511 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HLLY compare to CPS and STRT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Parts:O.E.M.), HLLY carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.8x, gross margin of 43.4%, and ROIC of 7.0%. By comparison, CPS (Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc.) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 85.0%, cap $356.6M) and STRT (STRATTEC SECURITY CORPORATION) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 12.5x, ROIC 15.2%, cap $250.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, STRT leads on earnings multiple (12.5x) while CPS leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HLLY?

Per HLLY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001822928), Holley Inc. generated $613.5M in revenue (+1.9% YoY), $19.2M in net income, and $33.9M in free cash flow against $1.16B in total assets and $516.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HLLY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HLLY last traded at $2.75 (+4.56% on volume of 579,493 shares), positioning the stock +5.36% above its 50-day simple moving average ($2.61) and -8.03% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.99). Across its 52-week range of $2.25 to $4.48, HLLY sits at the 22.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.9% ($2.48 to $3.02).

Direct Sub-Reports: HLLY RQD Cockpit HLLY 12M Forecast HLLY Earnings & Move HLLY Dividends & DRIP HLLY Insiders & 13F HLLY Whale Options HLLY Profit Sankey HLLY News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 52/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

HLLY — Holley Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Holley Inc. (HLLY) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 52/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $2.75 (+4.56% 1D, market capitalization $318.8M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 7.0%, gross margin of 43.4%, operating margin of 13.4%, and free cash flow yield of 10.51%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.32, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.15x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Holley Inc. (HLLY) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Auto Parts:O.E.M. Industry. The company reported FY 2025 revenue of $613.5M. Per the market data, gross margin is 43.4% and operating margin is 13.4%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Holley Inc. (HLLY) reported $613.5M in annual revenue (up from $602.2M in FY2024, +1.9% YoY) and $19.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($659.7M revenue, $19.2M net income) through FY2025, HLLY scaled operating cash flow to $46.2M and free cash flow to $33.9M, backed by $1.16B in total assets against $516.1M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 52/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 10.51% and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.25 – $4.48 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 16.8x trailing P/E and 8.6x EV/EBITDA against 13.4% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector context is the Consumer Discretionary / Auto Parts:O.E.M. Classification. Investors should watch whether the Flowmaster filtration expansion and any integration of the acquired business affect margins, given the company's existing debt load.

  • Key Question #1: Can HLLY sustain or expand its 13.4% operating margin and 7.0% ROIC against Auto Parts:O.E.M. Peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $613.5M and free cash flow of $33.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $516.1M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is HLLY's 15.6x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

HLLY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Holley Inc. (HLLY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HLLY Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HLLY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.75?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HLLY 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HLLY:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $3.42 (+30.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider cluster flow (17/20) and a 10.51% FCF yield point to cash-generation support despite leverage.

Here is why I am bullish on HLLY here at $2.63: Insider cluster flow (17/20) and a 10.51% FCF yield point to cash-generation support despite leverage.. Compare HLLY's 13.4% operating margin and 7.0% ROIC against the rest of Auto Parts:O.E.M.. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $2.50 are getting bought.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@CashFlowKing Agree on the RQD 52/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $2.63 and keeping dry powder in case we test $2.45.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.21 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $2.63

A 1.32 Altman Z-Score and $516.1M of debt against $37.2M of cash leave a weak balance sheet with thin 7% ROIC.

Careful chasing HLLY at $2.63. A 1.32 Altman Z-Score and $516.1M of debt against $37.2M of cash leave a weak balance sheet with thin 7% ROIC.. Gross margin is 43.4%, but operating margin is 13.4%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $2.21 on multiple compression.

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