Should I buy, hold, or sell MPAA stock right now?

Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell — SELL) with 56/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 16x P/E (22% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is MPAA's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

MPAA's 12-month base price target is $10.31 (range $8.04 to $19.03), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / MPAA

SRI (40) STRT (54) CAAS (49) CVGI (41) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$10.40 +0.87% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.40

Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $195.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MPAA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (NASDAQ: MPAA) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $10.40 (+0.87% 1D, market cap $195.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MPAA ranks #426 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MPAA compare to SRI and STRT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Parts:O.E.M.), MPAA carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.3x, gross margin of 20.2%, and ROIC of 21.6%. By comparison, SRI (Stoneridge Inc.) holds a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.1%, cap $162.0M) and STRT (STRATTEC SECURITY CORPORATION) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 12.5x, ROIC 15.2%, cap $250.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, STRT leads on earnings multiple (12.5x) while MPAA leads on capital efficiency (21.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MPAA?

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Per MPAA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0000918251), Motorcar Parts of America Inc. generated $789.8M in revenue (+4.3% YoY), $12.0M in net income, and $15.5M in free cash flow against $991.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.40 (-0.03%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MPAA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MPAA SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (32% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.41 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$10.59-3.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$10.22-0.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$10.14+2.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$10.40-0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (64) → D+ (56)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MPAA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, MPAA faces multiple-compression risk if 16.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($10.74) or 200D SMA ($11.78) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($10.31) toward Bear Floor ($8.04).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MPAA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MPAA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

4630 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

1.41>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

7 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE13% OF RANGE

L: $9$10.40H: $18

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (20.2% gross margin), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 11 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 22 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on MPAA

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (55)

21.6% ROIC with 20.2% gross margin and 7.93% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (60)

Altman-Z 1.41 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (55)

23/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like MPAA

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MPAA)

✓Walkthrough of MPAA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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MPAA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -6.64%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $10.30H $10.40L $10.30C $10.40VOL 51.9K

RES: $10.91SUP: $9.76SMA50: $10.74SMA200: $11.78

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MPAA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MPAA Butterfly Map → + Track MPAA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

9.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MPAA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MPAA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MPAA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MPAA)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #426 of 1009 ⚔️ SRI vs MPAA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MPAA vs. SRI, STRT, CAAS, CVGI)

Industry: Auto Parts:O.E.M. (36 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) ranks #426 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #690 by equity capitalization ($195.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, STRT leads on earnings valuation at 12.5x trailing P/E, while MPAA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 21.6% ROIC and 20.2% gross margin. MPAA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MPAA ACTIVE Motorcar Parts of America Inc.	D+	56/100	16.3x	20.2%	21.6%	+0.87%	$195.2M	Benchmark Subject
SRI Stoneridge Inc.	D-	40/100	—	19.9%	-24.1%	+1.59%	$162.0M	/sri-vs-mpaa →
STRT STRATTEC SECURITY CORPORATION	D+	54/100	12.5x	16.5%	15.2%	+1.31%	$250.0M	/strt-vs-mpaa →
CAAS China Automotive Systems Inc. Ordinary Share	D	49/100	—	19.0%	16.3%	-0.93%	$129.7M	/caas-vs-mpaa →
CVGI Commercial Vehicle Group Inc.	D-	41/100	—	10.5%	-0.2%	+0.32%	$128.4M	/cvgi-vs-mpaa →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-03-31 • CIK 0000918251 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31), Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) reported GAAP revenue of $789.8M (+4.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $757.4M , and +10.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $12.0M, operating cash flow of $19.2M, and free cash flow of $15.5M (-62.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, MPAA closed FY2025 with $991.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.41, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-03-31	$789.8M	$12.0M	$19.2M	$15.5M	$991.3M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2025-03-31	$757.4M	-$19.0M	$45.5M	$40.9M	$949.5M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2024-03-31	$717.7M	-$49.0M	$39.2M	$39.2M	—	—

3. MPAA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MPAA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MPAA compare to SRI and STRT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MPAA?

Where is MPAA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MPAA last traded at $10.40 (+0.87% on volume of 85,498 shares), positioning the stock -3.17% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.74) and -11.71% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.78). Across its 52-week range of $9.29 to $18.12, MPAA sits at the 12.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.2% ($9.65 to $11.15).

Direct Sub-Reports: MPAA RQD Cockpit MPAA 12M Forecast MPAA Earnings & Move MPAA Dividends & DRIP MPAA Insiders & 13F MPAA Whale Options MPAA Profit Sankey MPAA News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 56/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MPAA — Motorcar Parts of America Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2026-03-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 56/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $10.40 (+0.87% 1D, market capitalization $195.2M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 21.6%, gross margin of 20.2%, operating margin of 8.3%, and free cash flow yield of 7.93%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (18/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.41, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Motorcar Parts of America Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed company classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Auto Parts:O.E.M. Industry,. The profile describes the company as operating in this industry with a market capitalization of $0.2B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-03-31), Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) reported $789.8M in annual revenue (up from $757.4M in FY2024, +4.3% YoY) and $12.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($717.7M revenue, -$49.0M net income) through FY2025, MPAA scaled operating cash flow to $19.2M and free cash flow to $15.5M, backed by $991.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 56/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 7.93% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $9.29 – $18.12 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 16.3x trailing P/E and 2.6x EV/EBITDA against 8.3% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector correlations beyond the stated Consumer Discretionary and Auto Parts:O.E.M.

Key Question #1: Can MPAA sustain or expand its 8.3% operating margin and 21.6% ROIC against Auto Parts:O.E.M. Peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $789.8M and free cash flow of $15.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is MPAA's 15.2x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

MPAA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MPAA Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 21h ago

Motorcar Parts of America to Present at Gabelli Funds 50th Annual Automotive Symposium

Yahoo Finance report covering Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. Estimates – NASDAQ:MPAA

TradingView report covering Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE GuruFocus • 1d ago

Motorcar Parts of America Inc (MPAA) Stock Up 3.1% but GF Value Says Overvalued -- GF Score: 70/100

GuruFocus report covering Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

All interested investors can join the Nov. 9 results call.

Stock Titan report covering Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Motorcar Parts (MPAA) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Q2 Release

Yahoo Finance report covering Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Motorcar Parts of America (MPAA) Expected to Post Earnings on Monday

MarketBeat report covering Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE https://www.dars.gov.et/ • 1d ago

Motorcar Parts of America (MPAA) Slips 0.38% to $10.35, Holding Above $9.83 Support - Moving Average Ribbon

https://www.dars.gov.et/ report covering Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Motorcar Parts of America Q2 2027 Earnings Date and Estimates

MarketBeat report covering Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MPAA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $10.40?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MPAA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $12.99 (+26.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Insider-conviction pillar at 18 of 20 and a 21.6% ROIC with a 7.93% FCF yield signal strong cash generation and insider support against

Long MPAA at $10.31 targeting $12.99. Insider-conviction pillar at 18 of 20 and a 21.6% ROIC with a 7.93% FCF yield signal strong cash generation and insider support against a 16.3x trailing P/E.. Institutional whale score is 5/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $9.29 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@ForensicBear Fair point on 16.3x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Auto Parts:O.E.M.. If gross margin (20.2%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.76 (-15.0%)

Spot @ $10.31

A 1.5% net margin, Altman Z-Score of 1.41, and an institutional-flow pillar of only 5 of 20 leave thin earnings and weak whale accumula

Fading this rally in MPAA at $10.31. A 1.5% net margin, Altman Z-Score of 1.41, and an institutional-flow pillar of only 5 of 20 leave thin earnings and weak whale accumulation behind the cash-yield story.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $10.31 (52-wk range $9.29–$18.12), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.