Holley Inc. (HLLY) β€” RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$2.75 +4.56% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.77

Holley Inc. (HLLY) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $318.8M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HLLY Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HLLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Holley Inc. (NYSE: HLLY) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $2.75 (+4.56% 1D, market cap $318.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HLLY ranks #513 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HLLY compare to CPS and STRT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
β–Ό

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Parts:O.E.M.), HLLY carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.8x, gross margin of 43.4%, and ROIC of 7.0%. By comparison, CPS (Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc.) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 85.0%, cap $356.6M) and STRT (STRATTEC SECURITY CORPORATION) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 12.5x, ROIC 15.2%, cap $250.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, STRT leads on earnings multiple (12.5x) while CPS leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HLLY?
β–Ό

Per HLLY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001822928), Holley Inc. generated $613.5M in revenue (+1.9% YoY), $19.2M in net income, and $33.9M in free cash flow against $1.16B in total assets and $516.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.77 (+0.63%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) β€’ 5.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 50.1% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D+
025507510052
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ Β· Rk D
Cash (8)Whales (8)SEC (10)Macro (9)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.5% Base Target
$5 Bull$3 Base$2 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE HLLY RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HLLY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±9.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY HLLY SCORES 52/100 (D+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (33% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (19% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.32 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 7/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
44
Grade D$2.54-0.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
47
Grade D$2.52+2.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
49
Grade D$2.58+6.6% Next Q
Current
52
Grade D+$2.75-1.1% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: D (44) β†’ D+ (52)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HLLY Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While HLLY currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.61) and Max Pain ($2.89) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $4.70.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HLLYβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œHLLY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
54.230 Oversold Β· 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)
1.32>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
7 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE22% OF RANGE
L: $2$2.75H: $4
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 8 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 19 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on HLLY

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (40)

7.0% ROIC with 43.4% gross margin and 10.51% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 1.32 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (57)

25/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 9/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like HLLY
  • βœ“Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HLLY)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of HLLY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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HLLY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -15.38%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $2.66H $2.75L $2.63C $2.75VOL 569.3K
RES: $3.58SUP: $2.23SMA50: $2.61SMA200: $2.99
$3.62$3.25$2.88$2.51$2.13RES $3.58SUP $2.23$2.752026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HLLY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
9.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HLLY today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HLLY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HLLY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HLLY)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #513 of 1011 βš”οΈ CPS vs HLLY Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (HLLY vs. CPS, STRT, MPAA, SRI)

Industry: Auto Parts:O.E.M. (36 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Holley Inc. (HLLY) ranks #513 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #639 by equity capitalization ($318.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, STRT leads on earnings valuation at 12.5x trailing P/E, while CPS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 11.9% gross margin. MPAA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 56/100 (D+) compared with HLLY at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HLLY ACTIVE
Holley Inc.
D+ 52/100 16.8x 43.4% 7.0% +4.56% $318.8M Benchmark Subject
CPS
Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc.
D- 42/100 β€” 11.9% 85.0% +4.04% $356.6M /cps-vs-hlly β†’
STRT
STRATTEC SECURITY CORPORATION
D+ 54/100 12.5x 16.5% 15.2% +1.31% $250.0M /strt-vs-hlly β†’
MPAA
Motorcar Parts of America Inc.
D+ 56/100 16.3x 20.2% 21.6% +0.87% $195.2M /mpaa-vs-hlly β†’
SRI
Stoneridge Inc.
D- 40/100 β€” 19.9% -24.1% +1.59% $162.0M /sri-vs-hlly β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001822928

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Holley Inc. (HLLY) reported GAAP revenue of $613.5M (+1.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $602.2M , and -7.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $19.2M, operating cash flow of $46.2M, and free cash flow of $33.9M (-15.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, HLLY closed FY2025 with $1.16B in total assets against $516.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.32, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $613.5M $19.2M $46.2M $33.9M $1.16B $516.1M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $602.2M -$23.2M $46.9M $40.1M $1.13B $545.4M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $659.7M $19.2M $88.1M $88.1M β€” β€”

3. HLLY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HLLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Holley Inc. (NYSE: HLLY) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $2.75 (+4.56% 1D, market cap $318.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HLLY ranks #513 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HLLY compare to CPS and STRT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Parts:O.E.M.), HLLY carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.8x, gross margin of 43.4%, and ROIC of 7.0%. By comparison, CPS (Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc.) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 85.0%, cap $356.6M) and STRT (STRATTEC SECURITY CORPORATION) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 12.5x, ROIC 15.2%, cap $250.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, STRT leads on earnings multiple (12.5x) while CPS leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HLLY?

Per HLLY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001822928), Holley Inc. generated $613.5M in revenue (+1.9% YoY), $19.2M in net income, and $33.9M in free cash flow against $1.16B in total assets and $516.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HLLY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HLLY last traded at $2.75 (+4.56% on volume of 579,493 shares), positioning the stock +5.36% above its 50-day simple moving average ($2.61) and -8.03% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.99). Across its 52-week range of $2.25 to $4.48, HLLY sits at the 22.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±9.9% ($2.48 to $3.02).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 52/100 (D+) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

HLLY β€” Holley Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:38:28Z

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

HLLY scores 52 out of 100, a letter grade of D+, with the verdict "Roarable Sell β€” Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 8 / 20. Per the RQD rating, ROIC is 7% and FCF yield is 10.51%. The ROIC figure is modest, and the FCF yield is the strongest cash-generation signal in the pillar, but the pillar scores low overall.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 8 / 20. The RQD rating labels this pillar as institutional accumulation and options positioning.
  • Insider Conviction: 17 / 20. The highest pillar, described in the RQD rating as SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The underlying transactions are not itemized in the source data, so the strength of this signal cannot be independently verified here.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 9 / 20. Per the RQD rating, beta is 1.0 with sector sensitivity noted. Market data confirms beta of 1.0.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 10 / 20. Per the RQD rating, Altman Z is 1.32, Piotroski F is 7/9, and Debt/Equity is 1.15. The Altman Z-score sits in a range that the RQD rating treats as weak, which is the main driver of the pillar's modest score.

For a prospective investor, the rating's message is that cash generation and insider activity are the supportive elements, while the balance sheet, ROIC, and institutional signal weigh the score down. The upside case rests on the strength of the FCF yield and insider cluster flow continuing; the valuation tradeoff is that the stock trades at 16.8x trailing earnings and 8.6x EV/EBITDA while carrying leverage. Ripple effects from debt service would matter most if operating income weakens, as the FY 2024 figures illustrate. This is an analytical reading of the rating, not personalized advice.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Holley Inc. (HLLY) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Auto Parts:O.E.M. Industry. The company reported FY 2025 revenue of $613.5M. Per the market data, gross margin is 43.4% and operating margin is 13.4%.

Revenue moved from $659.7M in FY 2023 to $602.2M in FY 2024 before recovering to $613.5M in FY 2025, while operating income ranged from $14.7M to $94.0M across the same periods. Per the market data, net margin is 3.1% and ROIC is 7%. The Altman Z-Score is 1.32 and the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9. Debt/Equity is 1.15 per the RQD rating, and the FY 2025 debt of $516.1M against cash of $37.2M shows meaningful leverage.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case: Insider cluster flow (17/20) and a 10.51% FCF yield point to cash-generation support despite leverage. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 (ROIC 7.0%, FCF yield 10.51%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $2.25 – $4.48 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case: A 1.32 Altman Z-Score and $516.1M of debt against $37.2M of cash leave a weak balance sheet with thin 7% ROIC. Investors must weigh 16.8x trailing P/E and 8.6x EV/EBITDA against 13.4% operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector context is the Consumer Discretionary / Auto Parts:O.E.M. Classification. Investors should watch whether the Flowmaster filtration expansion and any integration of the acquired business affect margins, given the company's existing debt load.

  • Key Question #1: What are the terms and size of the SXTH Element acquisition, and how is it financed against existing debt of $516.1M?
  • Key Question #2: What drove the swing from FY 2023 operating income of $94.0M to FY 2024 operating income of $14.7M, and has the FY 2025 recovery to $82.5M been sustained?
  • Key Question #3: What specific institutional holders and 13F positions underlie the 8/20 whale-flow score?

HLLY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Holley Inc. (HLLY) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to HLLY Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HLLY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $2.75?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HLLY 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HLLY:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing FCF Compounder Hunter πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $3.42 (+30.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Insider cluster flow (17/20) and a 10.51% FCF yield point to cash-generation support despite leverage.

Here is why I am bullish on HLLY here at $2.63: Insider cluster flow (17/20) and a 10.51% FCF yield point to cash-generation support despite leverage.. Compare HLLY's 13.4% operating margin and 7.0% ROIC against the rest of Auto Parts:O.E.M.. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $2.50 are getting bought.

ArenaChamp_24 πŸ‚ BULL

@CashFlowKing Agree on the RQD 52/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $2.63 and keeping dry powder in case we test $2.45.

BE BearTrap_Alert Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.21 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $2.63

A 1.32 Altman Z-Score and $516.1M of debt against $37.2M of cash leave a weak balance sheet with thin 7% ROIC.

Careful chasing HLLY at $2.63. A 1.32 Altman Z-Score and $516.1M of debt against $37.2M of cash leave a weak balance sheet with thin 7% ROIC.. Gross margin is 43.4%, but operating margin is 13.4%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $2.21 on multiple compression.

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