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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / FND / forecast
BLDR (60) BCC (52) QXO (26) TSCO (68) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Floor & Decor Holdings Inc. (FND) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$47.59 -5.46% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $47.03

Floor & Decor Holdings Inc. (FND) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $5.36B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on FND Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FND stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-02, Floor & Decor Holdings Inc. (NYSE: FND) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $47.59 (-5.46% 1D, market cap $5.36B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, FND ranks #431 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FND compare to BLDR and BCC in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
▼

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (RETAIL: Building Materials), FND carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 25.7x, gross margin of 43.6%, and ROIC of 11.0%. By comparison, BLDR (Builders FirstSource Inc.) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 15.6x, ROIC 8.8%, cap $6.79B) and BCC (Boise Cascade L.L.C.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 20.4x, ROIC 7.1%, cap $2.72B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BLDR leads on earnings multiple (15.6x) while TSCO leads on capital efficiency (27.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FND?
▼

Per FND's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-25, CIK 0001507079), Floor & Decor Holdings Inc. generated $4.68B in revenue (+5.1% YoY), $208.6M in net income, and $171.1M in free cash flow against $5.47B in total assets and $193.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $47.03 (-1.17%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 3.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510056
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Cash (11)Whales (11)SEC (14)Macro (7)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target
$81 Bull$47 Base$37 Bear
📬 FREE FND RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FND)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FND SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.62 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+13/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (58.7) create a -13 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
48
Grade D$44.72+1.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
51
Grade C-$45.21+7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
53
Grade C-$48.38-1.6% Next Q
Current
56
Grade D+$47.59-0.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (48) → D+ (56)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FND Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, FND faces multiple-compression risk if 25.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 41.1% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($47.62) or 200D SMA ($54.38) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($47.16) toward Bear Floor ($36.78).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FND• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FND Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 24, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your FND Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $47.59: 210.1 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $36.78
$7,729
$-2,271 (-22.7%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $47.16
$9,910
$-90 (-0.9%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $81.33
$17,090
+$7,090 (+70.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$4974%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$7669%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$4258%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FND)

  • ✓Walkthrough of FND's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
FND // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.31%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $47.55H $50.34L $47.55C $47.59VOL 4.28M
RES: $70.55SUP: $42.38SMA50: $47.62SMA200: $54.38
$69.51$62.23$54.94$47.66$40.38RES $70.55SUP $42.38$47.592026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FND Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FND Butterfly Map → + Track FND →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
19.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FND today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FND. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FND today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FND)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #431 of 1011 ⚔️ BLDR vs FND Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (FND vs. BLDR, BCC, QXO, TSCO)

Industry: RETAIL: Building Materials (17 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Floor & Decor Holdings Inc. (FND) ranks #431 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #260 by equity capitalization ($5.36B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BLDR leads on earnings valuation at 15.6x trailing P/E, while TSCO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 27.9% ROIC and 36.4% gross margin. TSCO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with FND at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
FND ACTIVE
Floor & Decor Holdings Inc.
D+ 56/100 25.7x 43.6% 11.0% -5.46% $5.36B Benchmark Subject
BLDR
Builders FirstSource Inc.
C- 60/100 15.6x 30.4% 8.8% +2.93% $6.79B /bldr-vs-fnd →
BCC
Boise Cascade L.L.C.
D+ 52/100 20.4x — 7.1% +1.26% $2.72B /bcc-vs-fnd →
QXO
QXO Inc.
E 26/100 — 23.0% -1.9% -2.99% $11.81B /qxo-vs-fnd →
TSCO
Tractor Supply Company
C+ 68/100 16.0x 36.4% 27.9% +0.86% $17.53B /tsco-vs-fnd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-25 • CIK 0001507079

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-25), Floor & Decor Holdings Inc. (FND) reported GAAP revenue of $4.68B (+5.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.46B , and +6.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $208.6M, operating cash flow of $381.8M, and free cash flow of $171.1M (-57.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, FND closed FY2025 with $5.47B in total assets against $193.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.62, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-25 $4.68B $208.6M $381.8M $171.1M $5.47B $193.6M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-26 $4.46B $205.9M $603.2M $402.6M $5.05B $194.5M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-28 $4.41B $246.0M $803.6M $605.0M $5.30B $1.24B

3. FND Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FND stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Floor & Decor Holdings Inc. (NYSE: FND) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $47.59 (-5.46% 1D, market cap $5.36B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, FND ranks #431 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FND compare to BLDR and BCC in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (RETAIL: Building Materials), FND carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 25.7x, gross margin of 43.6%, and ROIC of 11.0%. By comparison, BLDR (Builders FirstSource Inc.) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 15.6x, ROIC 8.8%, cap $6.79B) and BCC (Boise Cascade L.L.C.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 20.4x, ROIC 7.1%, cap $2.72B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BLDR leads on earnings multiple (15.6x) while TSCO leads on capital efficiency (27.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FND?

Per FND's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-25, CIK 0001507079), Floor & Decor Holdings Inc. generated $4.68B in revenue (+5.1% YoY), $208.6M in net income, and $171.1M in free cash flow against $5.47B in total assets and $193.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FND trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FND last traded at $47.59 (-5.46% on volume of 5,621,162 shares), positioning the stock -0.06% below its 50-day simple moving average ($47.62) and -12.49% below its 200-day simple moving average ($54.38). Across its 52-week range of $42.64 to $77.46, FND sits at the 14.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.7% ($42.97 to $52.21).

FND Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is FND's 12-month stock price target?

Floor & Decor Holdings Inc. (FND) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $47.16 (-0.9% from $47.59), with a bull-case target of $81.33 and a bear-case floor of $36.78.

Is FND stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates FND D+ (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 56/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: FND RQD Cockpit FND 12M Forecast FND Earnings & Move FND Dividends & DRIP FND Insiders & 13F FND Whale Options FND Profit Sankey FND News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 56/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

FND — Floor & Decor Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:20:23Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, FND scores 56 out of 100, a D+ grade labeled "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20 (ROIC 11%; FCF yield 3.19%), Whale 13F Flow 11/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction 13/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit 7/20 (Beta 1.1; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet 14/20 (Altman Z 2.62; Piotroski F 9/9; Debt/Equity 0.08). For a prospective investor, the rating points to a mixed picture: the balance sheet pillar is the strongest, while cash generation, macro fit, and institutional flow are only moderate. The FCF yield of 3.19% and a trailing P/E of 25.7 indicate that the current price already embeds meaningful growth expectations relative to reported cash returns. The rating's verdict is a trim-oriented signal, meaning the scoring framework views the risk-reward as unfavorable at present rather than as a basis for accumulation. This is an analytical framing for education, not personalized advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
50.34$5.36B25.723.910.91.960%1.1$42.64 - $77.4611%

Open Questions

  • What are the cash and EPS figures for FY 2023 through FY 2025, which the financials table lists as N/A or not reported?
  • What drove the decline in free cash flow from $605.0M (FY 2023) to $171.1M (FY 2025) while revenue grew?
  • What specific margin pressures did BofA cite, and how do they relate to the 5.8% operating margin?
  • What is the analyst consensus rating and full set of price targets?
  • How does the FCF yield of 3.19% compare with the company's cost of capital, given the 11% ROIC?

FND Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Floor & Decor Holdings Inc. (FND) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to FND Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

FND Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $47.59?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON FND 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on FND:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $54.37 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is FND (D+ • RQD 56/100) a Buy at $50.34?

Welcome to the FND (Floor & Decor Holdings Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 56/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in RETAIL: Building Materials. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $41.78 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $50.34

Pump the brakes on FND — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on FND, but look at what you are paying: 25.7x trailing P/E with 43.6% gross margins. Unless Floor & Decor Holdings Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $60.41 (+20.0%)
Spot @ $50.34

FND cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on FND, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in RETAIL: Building Materials and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $50.34 (52-wk range $42.64 - $77.46), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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