Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ASPN scores 31 out of a possible 100, earning a letter grade of E and the verdict "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." Across the five pillars:

• Fundamental Cash Engine (5 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is -35% and FCF yield is -1.02%. This is the weakest pillar and signals that the business is not currently generating returns on capital or free cash for shareholders. The investor implication is that any valuation case must rest on a future turnaround rather than present cash generation.
• Whale 13F Flow (10 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. The score is moderate-low, suggesting institutional interest is present but not strongly directional.
• Insider Conviction (3 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow scores very low. For a prospective investor, the absence of meaningful insider conviction removes one common signal of management confidence.
• Macro Regime Fit (8 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, Beta is 1.0 and sector sensitivity is noted. The stock tracks broad market moves without a demonstrated defensive or regime-specific advantage.
• Forensic Balance Sheet (5 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, Altman Z is 0.2, Piotroski F is 3/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. The Altman Z reading is in the range that the rating's methodology treats as distress-associated, which is the central forensic concern.

Taken together, the investor takeaway is that upside drivers are limited to a possible operating turnaround, institutional accumulation, and the sharp prior range, while the principal tradeoffs are negative margins, negative ROIC, weak balance-sheet forensics, and absent insider conviction. The rating itself frames the stock as avoid-oriented. This is educational analysis, not personalized advice.

Per the SEC financials, FY 2025 revenue fell from $452.7M to $271.1M, and operating income swung from $54.5M to $-378.2M. Per the market data, gross margin is 17%, operating margin is -60%, and net margin is -60%, with ROIC at -35%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 0.2 and the Piotroski F-Score is 3/9. Cash declined from $220.9M to $156.9M across the last two reported years, and debt is listed as N/A in the filings, with Debt/Equity at 0.5 per the RQD rating.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no upstream or downstream supply-chain dependencies, butterfly links, or proprietary sector signals are mapped for ASPN. Sector correlations and 2nd-order bottleneck analysis therefore cannot be drawn from the source data. The investor should note that the graph's absence of mapped links means ripple effects from suppliers, customers, or peers are not quantified here.

• What drove the FY 2025 revenue decline from $452.7M to $271.1M, and is it cyclical or structural?
• Why is debt reported as N/A in the filings while Debt/Equity is 0.5 per the RQD rating?
• What is the Q3 2026 earnings release date, and what are management's guidance expectations?
• What is the basis for the reported $-389.6M FY 2025 net loss relative to the $-378.2M operating loss, and what non-operating items contributed?
• What do the institutional and passive holders (including the AIGH Capital Management stake) indicate about positioning, given the absence of holder detail in the source data?