What is ASPN's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for ASPN.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ASPN / options

ZKH (46) GRWG (28) BCC (52) SMJF (29) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$5.05 -6.31% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.98

Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 28/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $419.1M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ASPN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ASPN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Aspen Aerogels Inc. (NYSE: ASPN) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $5.05 (-6.31% 1D, market cap $419.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ASPN ranks #901 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ASPN compare to ZKH and GRWG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (RETAIL: Building Materials), ASPN carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 17.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ZKH (ZKH Group Limited each representing thirty-five (35) (Class A)) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $260.6M) and GRWG (GrowGeneration Corp.) posts a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -30.1%, cap $88.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCC leads on earnings multiple (20.4x) while BCC leads on capital efficiency (7.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASPN?

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Per ASPN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001145986), Aspen Aerogels Inc. generated $271.1M in revenue (-40.1% YoY), -$389.6M in net income, and -$4.6M in free cash flow against $406.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.98 (-1.33%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ASPN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (28/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ASPN SCORES 28/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+8/20 pts (29% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 46% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 44.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+7/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±10.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$5.47-2.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$5.33+1.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$5.39-6.3% Next Q

Current

Grade E$5.05-10% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (36) → E (28)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ASPN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ASPN currently carries a cautious 28/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.25) and Max Pain ($5.30) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.64.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ASPN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ASPN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 28%NO 72%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±10.5%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ASPN)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ASPN.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ASPN)

✓Walkthrough of ASPN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ASPN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +30.15%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-03O $5.39H $5.39L $5.05C $5.05VOL 1.18M

RES: $9.91SUP: $4.98SMA50: $5.25SMA200: $4.69

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ASPN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ASPN Butterfly Map → + Track ASPN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -40.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ASPN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ASPN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ASPN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ASPN)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #901 of 1011 ⚔️ ZKH vs ASPN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ASPN vs. ZKH, GRWG, BCC, SMJF)

Industry: RETAIL: Building Materials (17 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) ranks #901 by composite RQD confidence (28/100, grade E) and #605 by equity capitalization ($419.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BCC leads on earnings valuation at 20.4x trailing P/E, while BCC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.1% ROIC and — gross margin. BCC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 52/100 (D+) compared with ASPN at 28/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ASPN ACTIVE Aspen Aerogels Inc.	E	28/100	—	17.0%	-35.0%	-6.31%	$419.1M	Benchmark Subject
ZKH ZKH Group Limited each representing thirty-five (35) (Class A)	D	46/100	—	—	—	+7.90%	$260.6M	/zkh-vs-aspn →
GRWG GrowGeneration Corp.	E	28/100	—	26.8%	-30.1%	0.00%	$88.4M	/grwg-vs-aspn →
BCC Boise Cascade L.L.C.	D+	52/100	20.4x	—	7.1%	+1.26%	$2.75B	/bcc-vs-aspn →
SMJF SMJ International Holdings Inc. (Class A)	E	29/100	—	34.6%	—	+0.65%	$42.9M	/smjf-vs-aspn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001145986

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) reported GAAP revenue of $271.1M (-40.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $452.7M , and +13.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$389.6M, operating cash flow of $32.9M, and free cash flow of -$4.6M (+88.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, ASPN closed FY2025 with $406.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$271.1M	-$389.6M	$32.9M	-$4.6M	$406.7M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$452.7M	$13.4M	$45.5M	-$40.7M	$895.1M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$238.7M	-$45.8M	-$42.6M	-$42.6M	—	—

3. ASPN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ASPN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ASPN compare to ZKH and GRWG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASPN?

Where is ASPN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ASPN last traded at $5.05 (-6.31% on volume of 1,182,061 shares), positioning the stock -3.81% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.25) and +7.68% above its 200-day simple moving average ($4.69). Across its 52-week range of $2.30 to $8.23, ASPN sits at the 46.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.5% ($4.52 to $5.58).

Direct Sub-Reports: ASPN RQD Cockpit ASPN 12M Forecast ASPN Earnings & Move ASPN Dividends & DRIP ASPN Insiders & 13F ASPN Whale Options ASPN Profit Sankey ASPN News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 28/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ASPN — Aspen Aerogels Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:36:21Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ASPN scores 31 out of a possible 100, earning a letter grade of E and the verdict "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." Across the five pillars:

Fundamental Cash Engine (5 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is -35% and FCF yield is -1.02%. This is the weakest pillar and signals that the business is not currently generating returns on capital or free cash for shareholders. The investor implication is that any valuation case must rest on a future turnaround rather than present cash generation.
Whale 13F Flow (10 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. The score is moderate-low, suggesting institutional interest is present but not strongly directional.
Insider Conviction (3 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow scores very low. For a prospective investor, the absence of meaningful insider conviction removes one common signal of management confidence.
Macro Regime Fit (8 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, Beta is 1.0 and sector sensitivity is noted. The stock tracks broad market moves without a demonstrated defensive or regime-specific advantage.
Forensic Balance Sheet (5 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, Altman Z is 0.2, Piotroski F is 3/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. The Altman Z reading is in the range that the rating's methodology treats as distress-associated, which is the central forensic concern.

Taken together, the investor takeaway is that upside drivers are limited to a possible operating turnaround, institutional accumulation, and the sharp prior range, while the principal tradeoffs are negative margins, negative ROIC, weak balance-sheet forensics, and absent insider conviction. The rating itself frames the stock as avoid-oriented. This is educational analysis, not personalized advice.

Business

Aspen Aerogels Inc. is classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the RETAIL: Building Materials industry, trading on the NYSE. the company has a market capitalization of $0.4B.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts section, the feed contains six items, all related to ASPN:

RISK WATCH (red light): A Yahoo Finance report titled "What Aspen Aerogels Bears Saw Before The Fall," flagged as the only red-light item.
MARKET WIRE (yellow light): Simply Wall St stock forecast and analyst predictions coverage; a Benzinga Q2 2026 earnings call transcript; TradingView estimates coverage; a Stock Titan item reporting a passive stake above 5% by AIGH Capital Management; and a Yahoo Finance notice scheduling the Third Quarter 2026 earnings release and conference call.

The passive-stake disclosure is the most concrete ownership event in the feed. The Q3 2026 scheduling item establishes an upcoming catalyst date, though the date itself is — Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, sector is Consumer Discretionary, industry is RETAIL: Building Materials, supply chain is NONE, butterfly links are empty, and there are no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no upstream or downstream supply-chain dependencies, butterfly links, or proprietary sector signals are mapped for ASPN. Sector correlations and 2nd-order bottleneck analysis therefore cannot be drawn from the source data. The investor should note that the graph's absence of mapped links means ripple effects from suppliers, customers, or peers are not quantified here.

Open Questions

What drove the FY 2025 revenue decline from $452.7M to $271.1M, and is it cyclical or structural?
Why is debt reported as N/A in the filings while Debt/Equity is 0.5 per the RQD rating?
What is the Q3 2026 earnings release date, and what are management's guidance expectations?
What is the basis for the reported $-389.6M FY 2025 net loss relative to the $-378.2M operating loss, and what non-operating items contributed?
What do the institutional and passive holders (including the AIGH Capital Management stake) indicate about positioning, given the absence of holder detail in the source data?

ASPN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ASPN Debate Forum (3) ↓

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 19h ago

What Aspen Aerogels Bears Saw Before The Fall

Yahoo Finance report covering Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 22h ago

Aspen Aerogels (NYSE:ASPN) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions

Simply Wall St report covering Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 1d ago

Aspen Aerogels Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Benzinga report covering Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Aspen Aerogels, Inc. Estimates – NYSE:ASPN

TradingView report covering Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

A passive stake exceeds 5% at Aspen Aerogels (ASPN), with AIGH Capital Management reporting ownership.

Stock Titan report covering Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Aspen Aerogels, Inc. Schedules Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call

Yahoo Finance report covering Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) Short Interest & Short Float | Updated Oct 2026

MarketBeat report covering Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Simply Wall St • 1d ago

What Investors Got Wrong About Aspen Aerogels Before The Drop

Simply Wall St report covering Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ASPN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $5.05?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ASPN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $6.41 (+26.9%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional interest is present, with 13F flow scoring 10/20 and a passive stake above 5% disclosed by AIGH Capital Management.

Institutional interest is present, with 13F flow scoring 10/20 and a passive stake above 5% disclosed by AIGH Capital Management.. When you look under the hood at ASPN, Fundamental Cash Engine is 5/20 with 17.0% gross margins and -35.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (7/20) has been quietly accumulating below $8.23. My 12M target is $6.41.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — ASPN's 5/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

FO ForensicBear 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.94 (-22.0%)

Spot @ $5.05

The forensic balance sheet scores 5/20 with an Altman Z of 0.2 and Piotroski F of 3/9, alongside -35% ROIC and -60% operating margin.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on ASPN: The forensic balance sheet scores 5/20 with an Altman Z of 0.2 and Piotroski F of 3/9, alongside -35% ROIC and -60% operating margin.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in RETAIL: Building Materials triggers a 12-15% air pocket.