MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 21h ago
Certara (CERT) Stock Fair Value Edges Higher As Analysts Weigh Turnaround ProgressYahoo Finance report covering Certara Inc. (CERT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why CERT Stock dropped -2.81% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$10.71 -2.81% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.64
Certara Inc. (CERT) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $1.68B
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Is CERT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Certara Inc. (NASDAQ: CERT) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $10.71 (-2.81% 1D, market cap $1.68B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, CERT ranks #170 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does CERT compare to PDFS and IQMX in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), CERT carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 1.4%. By comparison, PDFS (PDF Solutions Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.6%, cap $1.73B) and IQMX (IQM Quantum Computers Oyj) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.63B). Among the 5-stock peer group, XZO leads on earnings multiple (19.3x) while XZO leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CERT?
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Per CERT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001827090), Certara Inc. generated $418.8M in revenue (+8.7% YoY), -$1.6M in net income, and $94.6M in free cash flow against $1.56B in total assets and $290.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.64 (-0.70%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 22.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.2% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CERT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CERT SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (27% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±10.9% realized swing band)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (25% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 84% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 64.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)
Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 11 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$9.60+1.9% Next Q
55
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$9.78+12% Next Q
58
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$10.95-2.2% Next Q
60
CurrentGrade C$10.71+0.9% Hist 90D α
63
Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CERT Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 63/100 (C) score, CERT faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($9.13) or 200D SMA ($7.28) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($10.95) toward Bear Floor ($8.54).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CERT• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CERT Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why CERT Stock dropped -2.81% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Certara Inc. (CERT) dropped -2.81% to $10.71, trading at 84% of its 52-week range ($4.45 – $11.88). Solid steady margins (1% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 84% of its 52-week range ($4.45 – $11.88) with RSI-14 at 64.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±10.9% around $10.71 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $94.6M annual free cash flow.
Live CERT Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREYahoo Finance Australia • 1d ago
Certara, Inc. (CERT) stock price, news, quote and historyYahoo Finance Australia report covering Certara Inc. (CERT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
CATALYSTInvesting.com • 1d ago
InvestingPro Fair Value analysis captures 67% gain on Certara stock By Investing.comInvesting.com report covering Certara Inc. (CERT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIRESeeking Alpha • 1d ago
Certara: Software Bookings Are Improving, But Cash Flow Has Yet To Follow (NASDAQ:CERT)Seeking Alpha report covering Certara Inc. (CERT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
CATALYSTSimply Wall St • 1d ago
Certara Stock Gains Fresh Analyst Backing for AI TurnaroundSimply Wall St report covering Certara Inc. (CERT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
RISK WATCHYahoo Finance • 1d ago
Certara (CERT) Stock May Trade Above Fair Value On Its 75% SlumpYahoo Finance report covering Certara Inc. (CERT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREMarketBeat • 1d ago
Certara (CERT) Institutional Ownership 2026 $CERTMarketBeat report covering Certara Inc. (CERT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREad-hoc-news.de • 1d ago
KeyCorp lifts Certara stock target to USD 12.00ad-hoc-news.de report covering Certara Inc. (CERT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 3d ago
Absci Sinks 8%, Schrödinger and Recursion Slide as AI Drug Discovery Stocks Give Back RallyKey TakeawaysAbsci fell 8% today as AI drug discovery peers Schrödinger and Recursion slid in a Nasdaq sell-off. These stocks trade together on sentiment, so the drop says little about Absci’s business.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 8d ago
Certara to Report Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results on November 5th, 2026RADNOR, Pa., Oct. 26, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Certara, Inc. (Nasdaq: CERT), a global leader in model-informed drug development, today announced that it will release financial results for the third quarter of 2026 before
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (CERT Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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CERT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +73.02%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $11.20H $11.20L $10.71C $10.71VOL 1.95M
RES: $11.94SUP: $8.74SMA50: $9.13SMA200: $7.28
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
CERT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +8.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CERT today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CERT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CERT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CERT)
Technology Rank #170 of 715
⚔️ PDFS vs CERT Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (CERT vs. PDFS, IQMX, EVCM, XZO)
Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Certara Inc. (CERT) ranks #170 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #309 by equity capitalization ($1.68B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, XZO leads on earnings valuation at 19.3x trailing P/E, while XZO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 60.4% gross margin. XZO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with CERT at 63/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CERT
ACTIVE
Certara Inc. | C | 63/100 | — | — | 1.4% | -2.81% | $1.68B | Benchmark Subject |
| PDFS PDF Solutions Inc. | D- | 37/100 | — | 72.3% | 1.6% | -4.95% | $1.73B | /pdfs-vs-cert → |
| IQMX IQM Quantum Computers Oyj | D | 45/100 | — | — | — | -2.91% | $1.63B | /iqmx-vs-cert → |
| EVCM EverCommerce Inc. | D | 49/100 | 91.9x | — | 4.2% | -5.89% | $1.62B | /evcm-vs-cert → |
| XZO Exzeo Group Inc. | B | 73/100 | 19.3x | 60.4% | 85.0% | +2.18% | $1.61B | /xzo-vs-cert → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001827090 ↗In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Certara Inc. (CERT) reported GAAP revenue of $418.8M (+8.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $385.1M , and +18.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$1.6M, operating cash flow of $96.3M, and free cash flow of $94.6M (+19.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, CERT closed FY2025 with $1.56B in total assets against $290.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.40, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $418.8M | -$1.6M | $96.3M | $94.6M | $1.56B | $290.1M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $385.1M | -$12.1M | $80.5M | $78.8M | $1.58B | $292.4M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $354.3M | -$55.4M | $82.8M | $82.8M | — | — |
3. CERT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs CERT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, Certara Inc. (NASDAQ: CERT) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $10.71 (-2.81% 1D, market cap $1.68B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, CERT ranks #170 in composite RQD confidence.
How does CERT compare to PDFS and IQMX in the Technology sector?
Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), CERT carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 1.4%. By comparison, PDFS (PDF Solutions Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.6%, cap $1.73B) and IQMX (IQM Quantum Computers Oyj) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.63B). Among the 5-stock peer group, XZO leads on earnings multiple (19.3x) while XZO leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CERT?
Per CERT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001827090), Certara Inc. generated $418.8M in revenue (+8.7% YoY), -$1.6M in net income, and $94.6M in free cash flow against $1.56B in total assets and $290.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is CERT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
CERT last traded at $10.71 (-2.81% on volume of 1,952,020 shares), positioning the stock +17.31% above its 50-day simple moving average ($9.13) and +47.12% above its 200-day simple moving average ($7.28). Across its 52-week range of $4.45 to $11.88, CERT sits at the 84.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.9% ($9.54 to $11.88).
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 63/100 (C)
✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED
CERT — Certara Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31
1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Certara Inc. (CERT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 63/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $10.71 (-2.81% 1D, market capitalization $1.68B).
- Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 1.4%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 5.0%, and free cash flow yield of 5.54%.
- Whale 13F & Options Flow (17/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
- Macro Regime Fit (16/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.40, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.27x.
2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory
Certara Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Technology sector, operating in the Computer Software: Prepackaged Software industry. Market capitalization is $1.7B.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Certara Inc. (CERT) reported $418.8M in annual revenue (up from $385.1M in FY2024, +8.7% YoY) and -$1.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($354.3M revenue, -$55.4M net income) through FY2025, CERT scaled operating cash flow to $96.3M and free cash flow to $94.6M, backed by $1.56B in total assets against $290.1M in total debt.
3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff
- 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 63/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of 5.54% and institutional whale pillar of 17/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 17/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $4.45 – $11.88 52-week range.
- 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation and 80.4x EV/EBITDA against 5.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.
4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch
Operating in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (Technology), CERT carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.
- Key Question #1: Can CERT sustain or expand its 5.0% operating margin and 1.4% ROIC against Computer Software: Prepackaged Software peers over the next 4 quarters?
- Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $418.8M and free cash flow of $94.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $290.1M in total debt?
- Key Question #3: How sensitive is CERT's equity valuation to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?
CERT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Certara Inc. (CERT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 21h ago
Certara (CERT) Stock Fair Value Edges Higher As Analysts Weigh Turnaround Progress Yahoo Finance report covering Certara Inc. (CERT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance Australia • 1d ago
Certara, Inc. (CERT) stock price, news, quote and history Yahoo Finance Australia report covering Certara Inc. (CERT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟢 CATALYST Investing.com • 1d ago
InvestingPro Fair Value analysis captures 67% gain on Certara stock By Investing.com Investing.com report covering Certara Inc. (CERT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago
Certara: Software Bookings Are Improving, But Cash Flow Has Yet To Follow (NASDAQ:CERT) Seeking Alpha report covering Certara Inc. (CERT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟢 CATALYST Simply Wall St • 1d ago
Certara Stock Gains Fresh Analyst Backing for AI Turnaround Simply Wall St report covering Certara Inc. (CERT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 1d ago
Certara (CERT) Stock May Trade Above Fair Value On Its 75% Slump Yahoo Finance report covering Certara Inc. (CERT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago
Certara (CERT) Institutional Ownership 2026 $CERT MarketBeat report covering Certara Inc. (CERT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE ad-hoc-news.de • 1d ago
KeyCorp lifts Certara stock target to USD 12.00 ad-hoc-news.de report covering Certara Inc. (CERT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE
3 Active Posts & Replies
CERT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $10.71?
🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CERT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH
🎯 Target: $13.77 (+25.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate Institutional whale 13F flow scores 17/20 and operating income swung to $21.0M in FY 2025, showing improving operating momentum.
Don't sleep on CERT's setup in Technology. Institutional whale 13F flow scores 17/20 and operating income swung to $21.0M in FY 2025, showing improving operating momentum.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (63/100) backs up the fundamental quality.
CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL
@MacroHawk_NYC Agree on the RQD 63/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $11.02 and keeping dry powder in case we test $10.25.
ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH
🎯 Target: $8.27 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $11.02 ROIC of 1.4% and EV/EBITDA of 80.4 leave the valuation resting on thin returns, with a RED risk-watch alert on a 75% slump.
Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on CERT: ROIC of 1.4% and EV/EBITDA of 80.4 leave the valuation resting on thin returns, with a RED risk-watch alert on a 75% slump.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software triggers a 12-15% air pocket.