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Stock Ratings / Health Care / CBIO / forecast
DMAC (43) OVID (40) GYRE (43) OCS (47) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Crescent Biopharma Inc. (CBIO) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$13.48 -4.19% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.35

Crescent Biopharma Inc. (CBIO) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 29/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (29/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →
ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $500.7M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CBIO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CBIO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Crescent Biopharma Inc. (NASDAQ: CBIO) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $13.48 (-4.19% 1D, market cap $500.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, CBIO ranks #827 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CBIO compare to DMAC and OVID in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), CBIO carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, DMAC (DiaMedica Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $498.8M) and OVID (Ovid Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -28.5%, cap $496.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GYRE leads on earnings multiple (72.3x) while GYRE leads on capital efficiency (25.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CBIO?
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Per CBIO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001253689), Crescent Biopharma Inc. generated $10.8M in revenue (-90.3% YoY), $153.9K in net income, and -$72.5M in free cash flow against $240.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.35 (-0.94%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (29/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510029
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (5)Whales (5)SEC (13)Macro (3)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.1% Base Target
$29 Bull$12 Base$9 Bear
📬 FREE CBIO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CBIO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (29/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CBIO SCORES 29/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (45% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.36 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+5/20 pts (17% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
21
Grade E$12.91+1.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
24
Grade E$13.07+1.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
26
Grade E$13.27+1.6% Next Q
Current
29
Grade E$13.48-9.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (21) → E (29)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CBIO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CBIO currently carries a cautious 29/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($15.49) and Max Pain ($14.15) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $28.78.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CBIO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CBIO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 29%NO 71%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your CBIO Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $13.48: 741.8 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $9.14
$6,780
$-3,220 (-32.2%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $11.72
$8,694
$-1,306 (-13.1%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $28.78
$21,350
+$11,350 (+113.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$1274%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$2769%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$1058%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CBIO)

  • ✓Walkthrough of CBIO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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CBIO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -24.78%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $14.07H $14.07L $13.48C $13.48VOL 189.5K
RES: $22.21SUP: $11.28SMA50: $15.49SMA200: $15.89
$23.27$20.16$17.04$13.93$10.81RES $22.21SUP $11.28$13.482026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CBIO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CBIO Butterfly Map → + Track CBIO →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CBIO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CBIO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CBIO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CBIO)

Health Care Rank #827 of 1016 ⚔️ DMAC vs CBIO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (CBIO vs. DMAC, OVID, GYRE, OCS)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Crescent Biopharma Inc. (CBIO) ranks #827 by composite RQD confidence (29/100, grade E) and #443 by equity capitalization ($500.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GYRE leads on earnings valuation at 72.3x trailing P/E, while GYRE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 25.4% ROIC and 95.4% gross margin. OCS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 47/100 (D) compared with CBIO at 29/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CBIO ACTIVE
Crescent Biopharma Inc.
E 29/100 — — -35.0% -4.19% $500.7M Benchmark Subject
DMAC
DiaMedica Therapeutics Inc.
D- 43/100 — — -35.0% -2.84% $498.8M /dmac-vs-cbio →
OVID
Ovid Therapeutics Inc.
D- 40/100 — — -28.5% -0.78% $496.1M /ovid-vs-cbio →
GYRE
Gyre Therapeutics Inc.
D- 43/100 72.3x 95.4% 25.4% -28.94% $507.9M /gyre-vs-cbio →
OCS
Oculis Holding AG
D 47/100 — — — +0.24% $508.7M /ocs-vs-cbio →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001253689

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Crescent Biopharma Inc. (CBIO) reported GAAP revenue of $10.8M (-90.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $112.1M , and -90.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $153.9K, operating cash flow of -$71.5M, and free cash flow of -$72.5M (-132.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, CBIO closed FY2025 with $240.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.36, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $10.8M $153.9K -$71.5M -$72.5M $240.3M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $112.1M $37.9K -$31.1M -$31.1M $35.6M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $110.0M $36.9K -$34.9M -$34.9M — —

3. CBIO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CBIO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Crescent Biopharma Inc. (NASDAQ: CBIO) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $13.48 (-4.19% 1D, market cap $500.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, CBIO ranks #827 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CBIO compare to DMAC and OVID in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), CBIO carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, DMAC (DiaMedica Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $498.8M) and OVID (Ovid Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -28.5%, cap $496.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GYRE leads on earnings multiple (72.3x) while GYRE leads on capital efficiency (25.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CBIO?

Per CBIO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001253689), Crescent Biopharma Inc. generated $10.8M in revenue (-90.3% YoY), $153.9K in net income, and -$72.5M in free cash flow against $240.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CBIO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CBIO last traded at $13.48 (-4.19% on volume of 189,524 shares), positioning the stock -12.98% below its 50-day simple moving average ($15.49) and -15.17% below its 200-day simple moving average ($15.89). Across its 52-week range of $8.72 to $27.41, CBIO sits at the 25.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($11.79 to $15.17).

Direct Sub-Reports: CBIO RQD Cockpit CBIO 12M Forecast CBIO Earnings & Move CBIO Dividends & DRIP CBIO Insiders & 13F CBIO Whale Options CBIO Profit Sankey CBIO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 29/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

CBIO — Crescent Biopharma Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:35:26Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

The Roarable RQD rating assigns a score of 29 out of 100, a letter grade of E, and a verdict label of "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." Per the Roarable RQD rating, the five pillars score as follows:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (5 / 20): Reflects an ROIC of -35% and an FCF yield of -13.86%. For a prospective investor, this indicates the business is not currently generating cash returns on invested capital, and free cash flow is negative relative to the market value.
  • Whale 13F Flow (5 / 20): Covers institutional accumulation and options positioning.
  • Insider Conviction (3 / 20): Based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The low score signals limited evidence of insider conviction in the stock.
  • Macro Regime Fit (3 / 20): Reflects a beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity. A beta of 1.0 means the stock is expected to move in line with the broader market, offering no defensive cushion, while the low score signals weak alignment with the current macro regime.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet (13 / 20): The strongest pillar, reflecting an Altman Z-Score of 6.36, a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5. The Altman figure points to a financially sturdier balance sheet than the cash-flow pillars, while the weak Piotroski score signals deteriorating fundamental quality.

Taken together, the pillar scores show that the balance sheet is the only area of relative strength; cash generation, institutional and insider signals, and macro fit all score poorly. For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the rating implies that upside depends on a turnaround in operating economics that the current data does not yet show, and that valuation cannot be anchored to earnings or cash flow because those measures are negative or unavailable. This is an analytical reading of the rating, not personalized financial advice.

Business

Crescent Biopharma Inc. (CBIO) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. The profile reports a market capitalization of $0.5B. Customer base and product-level revenue sources are —

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts section, the feed contains six items, all tagged with a YELLOW light and MARKET WIRE impact label:

  • Inducement award grants announced (Yahoo Finance).
  • Estimates coverage (TradingView).
  • Stifel reiterated a Buy rating with a $28 target (Investing.com).
  • A notice that three talks will be webcast live, with replays available for 90 days (Stock Titan).
  • H.C. Wainwright reiterated a buy rating (Investing.com).
  • H.C. Wainwright & Co. reiterated a Buy rating with a $36 price target (TradingView).

Key catalysts are the reiterated analyst Buy ratings and their stated price targets. Risk watch items include the negative operating income and free cash flow reported in the financials. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph records no supply-chain relationships and no butterfly links, so upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the source data.

Analyst View & Smart Money Ownership

Per the news feed, Stifel and H.C. Wainwright have reiterated Buy ratings, with price targets of $28 and $36 respectively. Consensus rating and aggregate price targets are — Per the holders section, no SEC Form 4 insider, 13F whale, or Congressional trade data is available.

Open Questions

  • What is the path to positive operating income, given FY 2025 operating income of $-152.6M against revenue of $10.8M?
  • Which specific revenue sources generated the FY 2025 revenue, and how durable are they?
  • What explains the reported 1.4% net margin when operating income is deeply negative?
  • What debt obligations sit behind the Debt/Equity figure, given that debt is reported as N/A in the financials?
  • What is the consensus rating and price target distribution beyond the two reiterated ratings in the news feed?

CBIO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Crescent Biopharma Inc. (CBIO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CBIO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CBIO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $13.48?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CBIO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CBIO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $17.52 (+30.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Balance sheet is the strongest pillar, with an Altman Z-Score of 6.36 and cash of $213.2M reported for FY 2025.

Here is why I am bullish on CBIO here at $13.48: Balance sheet is the strongest pillar, with an Altman Z-Score of 6.36 and cash of $213.2M reported for FY 2025.. Compare CBIO's -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against the rest of Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $12.81 are getting bought.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@ShortSeller_Dan Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $10.51 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $13.48

Operating income of $-152.6M and FCF of $-72.5M in FY 2025 against $10.8M of revenue, with ROIC at -35%.

Careful chasing CBIO at $13.48. Operating income of $-152.6M and FCF of $-72.5M in FY 2025 against $10.8M of revenue, with ROIC at -35%.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is -60.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $10.51 on multiple compression.

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