AeroVironment Inc. (AVAV) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$126.11 -6.50% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $124.39

AeroVironment Inc. (AVAV) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 31/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E β€’ RED ALERT Cap $6.85B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AVAV Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AVAV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-02, AeroVironment Inc. (NASDAQ: AVAV) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 31/100 at a spot price of $126.11 (-6.50% 1D, market cap $6.85B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, AVAV ranks #400 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AVAV compare to SARO and JOBY in the Industrials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Industrials sector (Aerospace), AVAV carries a Roarable E (31/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 25.3%, and ROIC of -7.6%. By comparison, SARO (StandardAero Inc.) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 18.3x, ROIC 10.7%, cap $7.87B) and JOBY (Joby Aviation Inc.) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $5.05B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SARO leads on earnings multiple (18.3x) while AIR leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVAV?
β–Ό

Per AVAV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-04-30, CIK 0001368622), AeroVironment Inc. generated $1.98B in revenue (+140.9% YoY), -$265.1M in net income, and -$140.9M in free cash flow against $5.36B in total assets and $727.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $124.39 (-1.36%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) β€’ 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (31/100 Β· E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ E
025507510031
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E Β· Rk E
Cash (5)Whales (8)SEC (7)Macro (6)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-12.1% Base Target
$429 Bull$111 Base$86 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE AVAV RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AVAV)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±11.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (31/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY AVAV SCORES 31/100 (E) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+8/20 pts (26% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (Β±11.8% realized swing band)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+7/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.07 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 4/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
39
Grade E$127.13-7.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
36
Grade E$117.63+7.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
34
Grade E$126.73-0.5% Next Q
Current
31
Grade E$126.11-9.4% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: E (39) β†’ E (31)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AVAV Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While AVAV currently carries a cautious 31/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($140.38) and Max Pain ($132.42) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $428.66.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AVAVβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œAVAV Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 28, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
0.6% Total Yield
0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 0.6% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
74/100 β€’ REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
0% (100% Reinvested)
Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (15.1% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years β†’ $40,809

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $245/yr
$11.5K
Yr 1
$13.2K
Yr 2
$15.2K
Yr 3
$17.6K
Yr 4
$20.2K
Yr 5
$23.3K
Yr 6
$26.8K
Yr 7
$30.8K
Yr 8
$35.5K
Yr 9
$40.8K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AVAV)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of AVAV's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
AVAV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -30.04%β–Ό DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $126.0H $134.9L $126.0C $126.1VOL 1.73M
RES: $197.5SUP: $110.6SMA50: $140.4SMA200: $182.9
$281.7$236.0$190.3$144.6$98.98RES $197.5SUP $110.6$126.12026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AVAV Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
26.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +140.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AVAV today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AVAV. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AVAV today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AVAV)

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (AVAV vs. SARO, JOBY, BETA, AIR)

Industry: Aerospace (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, AeroVironment Inc. (AVAV) ranks #400 by composite RQD confidence (31/100, grade E) and #123 by equity capitalization ($6.85B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SARO leads on earnings valuation at 18.3x trailing P/E, while AIR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.0% ROIC and 18.8% gross margin. SARO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 58/100 (D+) compared with AVAV at 31/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AVAV ACTIVE
AeroVironment Inc.
E 31/100 β€” 25.3% -7.6% -6.50% $6.85B Benchmark Subject
SARO
StandardAero Inc.
D+ 58/100 18.3x 14.8% 10.7% -1.72% $7.87B /saro-vs-avav β†’
JOBY
Joby Aviation Inc.
D- 38/100 β€” β€” -35.0% -3.54% $5.05B /joby-vs-avav β†’
BETA
Beta Technologies Inc. (Class A)
D- 43/100 β€” 72.2% -35.0% -2.53% $4.81B /beta-vs-avav β†’
AIR
AAR Corp.
D 50/100 22.4x 18.8% 12.0% -4.08% $4.20B /air-vs-avav β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2026-04-30 β€’ CIK 0001368622

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-04-30), AeroVironment Inc. (AVAV) reported GAAP revenue of $1.98B (+140.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $820.6M , and +175.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$265.1M, operating cash flow of -$78.4M, and free cash flow of -$140.9M (-575.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, AVAV closed FY2025 with $5.36B in total assets against $727.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.07, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-04-30 $1.98B -$265.1M -$78.4M -$140.9M $5.36B $727.9M
FY2024 (FY) 2025-04-30 $820.6M $43.6M -$1.3M -$20.9M $1.05B $25.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2024-04-30 $716.7M $59.7M $15.3M -$17.0M $3.77B $882.2M

3. AVAV Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AVAV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, AeroVironment Inc. (NASDAQ: AVAV) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 31/100 at a spot price of $126.11 (-6.50% 1D, market cap $6.85B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, AVAV ranks #400 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AVAV compare to SARO and JOBY in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Aerospace), AVAV carries a Roarable E (31/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 25.3%, and ROIC of -7.6%. By comparison, SARO (StandardAero Inc.) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 18.3x, ROIC 10.7%, cap $7.87B) and JOBY (Joby Aviation Inc.) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $5.05B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SARO leads on earnings multiple (18.3x) while AIR leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVAV?

Per AVAV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-04-30, CIK 0001368622), AeroVironment Inc. generated $1.98B in revenue (+140.9% YoY), -$265.1M in net income, and -$140.9M in free cash flow against $5.36B in total assets and $727.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AVAV trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AVAV last traded at $126.11 (-6.50% on volume of 1,040,942 shares), positioning the stock -10.17% below its 50-day simple moving average ($140.38) and -31.05% below its 200-day simple moving average ($182.90). Across its 52-week range of $113.15 to $408.25, AVAV sits at the 4.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±11.8% ($111.23 to $140.99).

AVAV Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

Does AVAV pay a dividend and is it safe?

AeroVironment Inc. (AVAV) offers a 0% cash dividend yield ($0.00 annualized) and 0.6% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 31/100 (E) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AVAV β€” AeroVironment Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:18:46Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, AVAV carries an RQD Score of 31 with a letter grade of E, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell β€” Forensic Risk / Avoid." Across the five pillars, the Fundamental Cash Engine scores 5 / 20 (ROIC -7.6%; FCF yield -2.06%), indicating that the business is not currently generating returns above its cost of capital or positive free cash flow relative to market value. Whale 13F Flow scores 8 / 20 for institutional accumulation and options positioning, and Insider Conviction scores 5 / 20 based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Macro Regime Fit scores 6 / 20 (Beta 0.94; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet scores 7 / 20 (Altman Z 2.07; Piotroski F 4/9; Debt/Equity 0.26). For a prospective investor, the practical implication is that the cash-generation and insider-signal pillars are the weakest, which means the stock's valuation depends on future earnings improvement rather than current cash returns. The balance-sheet metrics are middling rather than distressed, so the forensic concern is primarily about earnings quality and cash conversion rather than immediate solvency. Upside drivers would need to come from a sustained turn in operating profitability; the current negative ROIC and FCF yield mean the stock offers no cash-yield cushion while that turn is pending.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025 (filed 2026-04-30)$1976.8M$-311.0M$-265.1MN/A$-140.9M$289.9M$727.9M
FY 2024 (filed 2025-04-30)$820.6M$40.8M$43.6MN/A$-20.9M$47.0M$25.0M
FY 2023 (filed 2024-04-30)$716.7M$71.8M$59.7MN/A$-17.0MN/A$882.2M

Per the market data, the operating margin is -15.7% and the net margin is -13.4%, with ROIC at -7.6%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.07 and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9. The Debt/Equity ratio is 0.26 per the RQD forensic pillar. The FY 2025 swing from positive operating income in FY 2024 to a $-311.0M operating loss is the central financial development in the source data.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts section, the headlines are mixed. A RISK WATCH item, "AeroVironment Is Now Down 43% This Year. Is It Time to Sell This Dropping Drone Stock?" (24/7 Wall St. and Yahoo Finance coverage), flags declining share performance. Another RISK WATCH headline, "AeroVironment (AVAV) Stock Looks Reasonable As Shares Fell 65%," reports the sharp drawdown while suggesting valuation has reset. A CATALYST-tagged item reports that Macquarie initiated coverage with an outperform rating. A MARKET WIRE headline, "AeroVironment Lands Major Army Deals as AVAV Stock Looks More Attractive," references major Army deals, though the source does not detail contract values or timing. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists supply_chain as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What are the specific drivers of the FY 2025 operating loss of $-311.0M, and are they recurring or one-time?
  • What is the TTM P/E and EV/EBITDA, given that both are marked unavailable in the source data?
  • What do the Army contracts referenced in the news wire represent in dollar value and timing?
  • What is the composition of the reported debt of $727.9M, and what are its maturities and terms?
  • Who holds the stock institutionally, and how have 13F and insider positions changed over recent periods?

AVAV Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for AeroVironment Inc. (AVAV) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to AVAV Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AVAV Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $126.11?

πŸ‚ 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AVAV 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AVAV:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $118.69 (-12.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is AVAV (E β€’ RQD 31/100) a Buy at $134.88?

Welcome to the AVAV (AeroVironment Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 31/100 (Roarable Strong Sell β€” Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Aerospace. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $111.95 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $134.88

Pump the brakes on AVAV β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on AVAV, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 25.3% gross margins. Unless AeroVironment Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $155.11 (+15.0%)
Spot @ $134.88

AVAV cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on AVAV, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Aerospace and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $134.88 (52-wk range $113.15 - $408.25), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

LIVE TAPE SPY $755.72 -0.38% QQQ $690.49 -1.44% DIA $517.13 -0.37% IWM $279.33 +0.96% NVDA $204.64 -4.22% AAPL $344.63 -1.23% MSFT $521.91 -1.55% TSLA $399.81 -0.86% PLTR $184.11 -6.27% SOFI $16.76 -4.83% IBIT $43.36 -0.94% GLD $355.78 -1.34%