Joby Aviation Inc. (JOBY) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$4.90 -3.54% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.86

Joby Aviation Inc. (JOBY) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 38/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $5.05B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is JOBY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Joby Aviation Inc. (NYSE: JOBY) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $4.90 (-3.54% 1D, market cap $5.05B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, JOBY ranks #355 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does JOBY compare to BETA and AIR in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Aerospace), JOBY carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, BETA (Beta Technologies Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $4.81B) and AIR (AAR Corp.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 22.4x, ROIC 12.0%, cap $4.20B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AIR leads on earnings multiple (22.4x) while AIR leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JOBY?
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Per JOBY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001819848), Joby Aviation Inc. generated $53.4M in revenue (+39183.1% YoY), -$929.8M in net income, and -$563.8M in free cash flow against $1.80B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.86 (-0.83%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510038
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (9)Whales (5)SEC (14)Macro (4)CEO (6)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9% Base Target
$18 Bull$4 Base$3 Bear
📬 FREE JOBY RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for JOBY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (38/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY JOBY SCORES 38/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (37% of score)

Altman Z-Score 5.32 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (43.9) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
46
Grade D$4.95-6.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
43
Grade D$4.65+7.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
41
Grade D$5.01-2.2% Next Q
Current
38
Grade D-$4.90-7.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (46) → D- (38)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a JOBY Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While JOBY currently carries a cautious 38/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.84) and Max Pain ($5.15) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $17.96.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $JOBY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “JOBY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
43.930 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
5.32>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)
5 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE4% OF RANGE
L: $4$4.90H: $17
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 9 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 11 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on JOBY

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (45)

-35.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -11.17% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (70)

Altman-Z 5.32 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (25)

11/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 4/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like JOBY
  • ✓Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring JOBY)

  • ✓Walkthrough of JOBY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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JOBY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -44.70%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $5.08H $5.08L $4.90C $4.90VOL 16.75M
RES: $5.02SUP: $3.92SMA50: $5.84SMA200: $8.52
$14.10$11.48$8.86$6.24$3.62RES $5.02SUP $3.92$4.902026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

JOBY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
11.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +180.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on JOBY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for JOBY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for JOBY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (JOBY)

Industrials Rank #355 of 485 ⚔️ BETA vs JOBY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (JOBY vs. BETA, AIR, AVAV, ACHR)

Industry: Aerospace (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Joby Aviation Inc. (JOBY) ranks #355 by composite RQD confidence (38/100, grade D-) and #143 by equity capitalization ($5.05B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AIR leads on earnings valuation at 22.4x trailing P/E, while AIR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.0% ROIC and 18.8% gross margin. AIR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 50/100 (D) compared with JOBY at 38/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
JOBY ACTIVE
Joby Aviation Inc.
D- 38/100 — — -35.0% -3.54% $5.05B Benchmark Subject
BETA
Beta Technologies Inc. (Class A)
D- 43/100 — 72.2% -35.0% -2.53% $4.81B /beta-vs-joby →
AIR
AAR Corp.
D 50/100 22.4x 18.8% 12.0% -4.08% $4.20B /air-vs-joby →
AVAV
AeroVironment Inc.
E 31/100 — 25.3% -7.6% -6.50% $6.85B /avav-vs-joby →
ACHR
Archer Aviation Inc.
E 33/100 — 33.3% -35.0% -4.11% $3.41B /achr-vs-joby →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001819848

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Joby Aviation Inc. (JOBY) reported GAAP revenue of $53.4M (+39183.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $136.0K , and +5076.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$929.8M, operating cash flow of -$509.9M, and free cash flow of -$563.8M (-18.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, JOBY closed FY2025 with $1.80B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.32, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $53.4M -$929.8M -$509.9M -$563.8M $1.80B $0
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $136.0K -$608.0M -$436.3M -$476.9M $1.20B $131.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.0M -$513.0M -$313.8M -$313.9M $2.78B $649.8M

3. JOBY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is JOBY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Joby Aviation Inc. (NYSE: JOBY) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $4.90 (-3.54% 1D, market cap $5.05B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, JOBY ranks #355 in composite RQD confidence.

How does JOBY compare to BETA and AIR in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Aerospace), JOBY carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, BETA (Beta Technologies Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $4.81B) and AIR (AAR Corp.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 22.4x, ROIC 12.0%, cap $4.20B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AIR leads on earnings multiple (22.4x) while AIR leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JOBY?

Per JOBY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001819848), Joby Aviation Inc. generated $53.4M in revenue (+39183.1% YoY), -$929.8M in net income, and -$563.8M in free cash flow against $1.80B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is JOBY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

JOBY last traded at $4.90 (-3.54% on volume of 16,258,667 shares), positioning the stock -16.10% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.84) and -42.49% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.52). Across its 52-week range of $4.43 to $17.10, JOBY sits at the 3.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.2% ($4.40 to $5.40).

JOBY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell JOBY stock right now?

Joby Aviation Inc. (JOBY) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 38/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is JOBY's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

JOBY's 12-month base price target is $4.46 (range $3.48 to $17.96), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 38/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

JOBY — Joby Aviation Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:20:50Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, JOBY scores 38 out of 100, a letter grade of D-, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The fundamental cash engine pillar scores 9 of 20, reflecting ROIC of -35% and an FCF yield of -11.17%; for a prospective investor, this means the business is not currently generating cash returns on capital. The whale 13F flow pillar scores 5 of 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), signaling weak institutional support in the source data. The insider conviction pillar scores 6 of 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), indicating limited insider signal strength. The macro regime fit pillar scores 4 of 20, with beta of 0.88 and sector sensitivity noted as the drivers. The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 14 of 20, supported by Altman Z 5.32, Piotroski F 5/9, and Debt/Equity 0.5; this is the strongest pillar and the main offset to the weaker operating and flow readings. Taken together, the rating frames JOBY as a stock whose balance sheet is comparatively sturdier than its cash generation and flow profile. Upside drivers would need to come from improving cash returns; the data shows the current valuation rests on future execution rather than present earnings, and the wide 52-week range of $4.43 - $17.1 illustrates the volatility an investor should weigh.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$53.4M$-719.6M$-929.8MN/A$-563.8M$240.8M$0.0M
FY 2024$0.1M$-596.8M$-608.0MN/A$-476.9M$199.6M$131.0M
FY 2023$1.0M$-472.1M$-513.0MN/A$-313.9MN/A$649.8M

Per the SEC financials, the company reported operating and net losses in every period shown, with operating margin and net margin both at -60% in the market data. Gross margin is 0%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is -35%. The forensic balance sheet readings are an Altman Z-Score of 5.32 and a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, with Debt/Equity of 0.5. Reported debt fell from $649.8M (FY 2023) to $0.0M (FY 2025) while cash rose to $240.8M in FY 2025, a posture the forensic pillar scores as comparatively stable despite persistent losses.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, six headlines cover JOBY, sourced from Yahoo Finance, The Motley Fool, and Trefis. Two items carry a "RISK WATCH" or RED light: a Trefis piece on how large the next decline could be, flagged RED, and the remaining items are YELLOW "MARKET WIRE" reports. Recurring headline themes include the stock hitting a 52-week low and investment-return framing. The feed's summaries are generic market-action descriptions and do not contain specific operational catalysts. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no supply-chain links or proprietary signals are recorded (supply_chain: NONE).

Open Questions

  • What specific products, customers, and revenue sources generate the reported FY 2025 revenue of $53.4M?
  • What drove the reduction in reported debt from $649.8M to $0.0M, and what is the company's funding runway given negative FCF of $-563.8M?
  • What is the EPS trajectory, given the FY figures show EPS as N/A and TTM EPS of -0.94?
  • What explains the gap between the forward P/E of 18 and the negative trailing earnings?
  • How do the insider and institutional flow signals (pillar scores 6/20 and 5/20) reconcile with the forensic strength of the balance sheet?

JOBY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Joby Aviation Inc. (JOBY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to JOBY Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

JOBY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $4.90?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON JOBY 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on JOBY:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.47 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is JOBY (D- • RQD 38/100) a Buy at $5.08?

Welcome to the JOBY (Joby Aviation Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 38/100 (Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Aerospace. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.22 (-16.9%)
Spot @ $5.08

Pump the brakes on JOBY — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on JOBY, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Joby Aviation Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $6.10 (+20.1%)
Spot @ $5.08

JOBY cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on JOBY, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Aerospace and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $5.08 (52-wk range $4.43 - $17.10), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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