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Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$38.61 +1.15% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.62

Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $11.61B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ALLY Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ALLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Ally Financial Inc. (NYSE: ALLY) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $38.61 (+1.15% 1D, market cap $11.61B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ALLY ranks #448 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ALLY compare to FHN and WTFC in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), ALLY carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.1%. By comparison, FHN (First Horizon Corporation) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 11.4x, ROIC 3.1%, cap $11.02B) and WTFC (Wintrust Financial Corporation) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 12.6x, ROIC 3.1%, cap $10.28B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FHN leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while ALLY leads on capital efficiency (4.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALLY?
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Per ALLY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000040729), Ally Financial Inc. generated $1.24B in revenue (+3.8% YoY), $852.0M in net income, and $3.67B in free cash flow against $196.00B in total assets and $14.41B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.62 (+0.02%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 295.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510058
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Cash (10)Whales (8)SEC (15)Macro (8)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target
$50 Bull$39 Base$30 Bear
📬 FREE ALLY RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ALLY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ALLY SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (45.4) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
50
Grade C-$36.74+5.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
53
Grade C-$38.69+0.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
55
Grade C$38.80-0.5% Next Q
Current
58
Grade D+$38.61+0% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (50) → D+ (58)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ALLY Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, ALLY faces multiple-compression risk if 14.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($39.57) or 200D SMA ($41.85) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($38.61) toward Bear Floor ($30.12).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ALLY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ALLY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 58%NO 42%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your ALLY Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $38.61: 259.0 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $30.12
$7,801
$-2,199 (-22.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $38.61
$10,000
+$0 (+0.0%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $49.65
$12,859
+$2,859 (+28.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$4074%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$4769%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$3458%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ALLY)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ALLY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ALLY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -10.27%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $39.64H $39.64L $38.17C $38.61VOL 5.87M
RES: $40.55SUP: $33.85SMA50: $39.57SMA200: $41.85
$48.07$44.84$41.62$38.39$35.17RES $40.55SUP $33.85$38.612026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ALLY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ALLY Butterfly Map → + Track ALLY →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
6.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ALLY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ALLY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ALLY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ALLY)

Financials Rank #448 of 1097 ⚔️ FHN vs ALLY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ALLY vs. FHN, WTFC, UMBF, SSB)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) ranks #448 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #168 by equity capitalization ($11.61B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FHN leads on earnings valuation at 11.4x trailing P/E, while ALLY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 4.1% ROIC and — gross margin. WTFC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with ALLY at 58/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ALLY ACTIVE
Ally Financial Inc.
D+ 58/100 14.2x — 4.1% +1.15% $11.61B Benchmark Subject
FHN
First Horizon Corporation
D+ 58/100 11.4x — 3.1% +1.59% $11.02B /fhn-vs-ally →
WTFC
Wintrust Financial Corporation
B- 70/100 12.6x — 3.1% +3.29% $10.28B /wtfc-vs-ally →
UMBF
UMB Financial Corporation
C+ 67/100 14.7x — 2.5% +2.22% $10.21B /umbf-vs-ally →
SSB
SouthState Bank Corporation
C- 60/100 12.9x — 3.0% +1.75% $10.20B /ssb-vs-ally →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000040729 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) reported GAAP revenue of $1.24B (+3.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.20B , and +28.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $852.0M, operating cash flow of $3.73B, and free cash flow of $3.67B (-17.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, ALLY closed FY2025 with $196.00B in total assets against $14.41B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.24B $852.0M $3.73B $3.67B $196.00B $14.41B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.20B $668.0M $4.53B $4.47B $191.84B $12.68B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $968.0M $957.0M $4.56B $4.51B $6.63B $1.55B

3. ALLY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ALLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Ally Financial Inc. (NYSE: ALLY) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $38.61 (+1.15% 1D, market cap $11.61B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ALLY ranks #448 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ALLY compare to FHN and WTFC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), ALLY carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.1%. By comparison, FHN (First Horizon Corporation) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 11.4x, ROIC 3.1%, cap $11.02B) and WTFC (Wintrust Financial Corporation) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 12.6x, ROIC 3.1%, cap $10.28B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FHN leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while ALLY leads on capital efficiency (4.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALLY?

Per ALLY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000040729), Ally Financial Inc. generated $1.24B in revenue (+3.8% YoY), $852.0M in net income, and $3.67B in free cash flow against $196.00B in total assets and $14.41B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ALLY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ALLY last traded at $38.61 (+1.15% on volume of 3,559,650 shares), positioning the stock -2.43% below its 50-day simple moving average ($39.57) and -7.74% below its 200-day simple moving average ($41.85). Across its 52-week range of $35.92 to $47.29, ALLY sits at the 23.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.4% ($36.53 to $40.69).

Direct Sub-Reports: ALLY RQD Cockpit ALLY 12M Forecast ALLY Earnings & Move ALLY Dividends & DRIP ALLY Insiders & 13F ALLY Whale Options ALLY Profit Sankey ALLY News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 58/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ALLY — Ally Financial Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 58/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $38.61 (+1.15% 1D, market capitalization $11.61B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 4.1%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 75.0%, and free cash flow yield of 22.00%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 0.88x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) is a NYSE-listed operating company in the Major Banks industry (Financials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $11.61B. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 75%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 4.1% (free cash flow yield of 22%). Within the Major Banks peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) reported $1.24B in annual revenue (up from $1.20B in FY2024, +3.8% YoY) and $852.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($968.0M revenue, $957.0M net income) through FY2025, ALLY scaled operating cash flow to $3.73B and free cash flow to $3.67B, backed by $196.00B in total assets against $14.41B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 58/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $35.92 – $47.29 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 14.2x trailing P/E and 15.1x EV/EBITDA against 75.0% operating margins and a 0.88x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Major Banks (Financials), ALLY carries a macro regime beta of 0.88 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can ALLY sustain or expand its 75.0% operating margin and 4.1% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.24B and free cash flow of $3.67B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $14.41B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ALLY's 13.2x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.88x)?

ALLY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ALLY Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ALLY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $38.61?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ALLY 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ALLY:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $45.42 (+19.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction scores 17/20 and the balance sheet scores 15/20 (Piotroski F 8/9), with a 22% FCF yield and a 14.2 trailing P/E.

Don't sleep on ALLY's setup in Financials. Insider conviction scores 17/20 and the balance sheet scores 15/20 (Piotroski F 8/9), with a 22% FCF yield and a 14.2 trailing P/E.. Beta of 0.88 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (58/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — ALLY's 15/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $30.92 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $38.17

ROIC is only 4.1% and macro regime fit scores 8/20, with TD Cowen cutting its price target on reserve-build concerns.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short ALLY above $38.17. ROIC is only 4.1% and macro regime fit scores 8/20, with TD Cowen cutting its price target on reserve-build concerns.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20) and FCF yield (22.0%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $47.29.

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