Should I buy, hold, or sell MGM stock right now?

MGM Resorts International (MGM) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 46/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 35x P/E (12% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is MGM's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

MGM's 12-month base price target is $28.91 (range $22.55 to $54.17), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / MGM

WYNN (54) CZR (54) LTH (53) WH (53) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

MGM Resorts International (MGM) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$30.56 +2.00% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $30.61

MGM Resorts International (MGM) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $7.58B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MGM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $30.56 (+2.00% 1D, market cap $7.58B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MGM ranks #626 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MGM compare to WYNN and CZR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels/Resorts), MGM carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 35.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.0%. By comparison, WYNN (Wynn Resorts Limited) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 23.3x, ROIC 10.0%, cap $7.69B) and CZR (Caesars Entertainment Inc.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 10.3%, cap $5.93B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WYNN leads on earnings multiple (23.3x) while WH leads on capital efficiency (16.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MGM?

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Per MGM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000789570), MGM Resorts International generated $17.54B in revenue (+1.7% YoY), $205.9M in net income, and $1.46B in free cash flow against $41.37B in total assets and $6.23B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $30.61 (+0.17%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 8.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk E

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MGM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MGM SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (33% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 8.3% FCF Margin ($1.46B FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (47.2) create a -15 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$28.96-0.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$28.87-5.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$27.27+12.1% Next Q

Current

Grade D$30.56-6.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (38) → D (46)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MGM Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MGM currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($33.94) and Max Pain ($32.09) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $54.17.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MGM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MGM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

47.230 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

0.71>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

6 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE15% OF RANGE

L: $27$30.56H: $52

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: CRQD 13 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 22 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: ERQD 11 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on MGM

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (65)

12.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 20.02% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (30)

Altman-Z 0.71 and Piotroski 6/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (45)

22/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 5/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like MGM

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MGM)

✓Walkthrough of MGM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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MGM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -20.08%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-03O $28.83H $30.56L $28.83C $30.56VOL 9.94M

SUP: $26.40SMA50: $33.94SMA200: $38.96

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MGM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MGM Butterfly Map → + Track MGM →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

27.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MGM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MGM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MGM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MGM)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #626 of 1009 ⚔️ WYNN vs MGM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MGM vs. WYNN, CZR, LTH, WH)

Industry: Hotels/Resorts (35 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MGM Resorts International (MGM) ranks #626 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #204 by equity capitalization ($7.58B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WYNN leads on earnings valuation at 23.3x trailing P/E, while WH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.2% ROIC and — gross margin. WYNN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 54/100 (D+) compared with MGM at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MGM ACTIVE MGM Resorts International	D	46/100	35.4x	—	12.0%	+2.00%	$7.58B	Benchmark Subject
WYNN Wynn Resorts Limited	D+	54/100	23.3x	—	10.0%	+4.03%	$7.69B	/wynn-vs-mgm →
CZR Caesars Entertainment Inc.	D+	54/100	—	—	10.3%	-0.34%	$5.93B	/czr-vs-mgm →
LTH Life Time Group Holdings Inc.	D+	53/100	27.1x	47.6%	8.6%	-2.84%	$10.13B	/lth-vs-mgm →
WH Wyndham Hotels & Resorts Inc.	D+	53/100	29.1x	—	16.2%	+4.43%	$5.48B	/wh-vs-mgm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000789570 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MGM Resorts International (MGM) reported GAAP revenue of $17.54B (+1.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $17.24B , and +8.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $205.9M, operating cash flow of $2.53B, and free cash flow of $1.46B (+20.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, MGM closed FY2025 with $41.37B in total assets against $6.23B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.71, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$17.54B	$205.9M	$2.53B	$1.46B	$41.37B	$6.23B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$17.24B	$746.6M	$2.36B	$1.21B	$42.23B	$6.36B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$16.16B	$1.14B	$2.69B	$1.96B	$19.40B	$4.54B

3. MGM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MGM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MGM compare to WYNN and CZR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MGM?

Where is MGM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MGM last traded at $30.56 (+2.00% on volume of 7,844,674 shares), positioning the stock -9.96% below its 50-day simple moving average ($33.94) and -21.56% below its 200-day simple moving average ($38.96). Across its 52-week range of $26.71 to $51.59, MGM sits at the 15.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.7% ($27.90 to $33.22).

Direct Sub-Reports: MGM RQD Cockpit MGM 12M Forecast MGM Earnings & Move MGM Dividends & DRIP MGM Insiders & 13F MGM Whale Options MGM Profit Sankey MGM News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 46/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MGM — MGM Resorts International: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

MGM Resorts International (MGM) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 46/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $30.56 (+2.00% 1D, market capitalization $7.58B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 12.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 5.7%, and free cash flow yield of 20.02%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (6/20): Incorporates a 1.11x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.71, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 2.56x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

MGM Resorts International (MGM) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, operating in the Hotels/Resorts industry. The profile identifies a market capitalization of $7.3B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), MGM Resorts International (MGM) reported $17.54B in annual revenue (up from $17.24B in FY2024, +1.7% YoY) and $205.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($16.16B revenue, $1.14B net income) through FY2025, MGM scaled operating cash flow to $2.53B and free cash flow to $1.46B, backed by $41.37B in total assets against $6.23B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 46/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 20.02% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $26.71 – $51.59 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 35.4x trailing P/E and 6.0x EV/EBITDA against 5.7% operating margins and a 1.11x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Hotels/Resorts (Consumer Discretionary), MGM carries a macro regime beta of 1.11 and gross margin of —.

Key Question #1: Can MGM sustain or expand its 5.7% operating margin and 12.0% ROIC against Hotels/Resorts peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $17.54B and free cash flow of $1.46B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $6.23B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is MGM's 32.9x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.11x)?

MGM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for MGM Resorts International (MGM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MGM Debate Forum (3) ↓

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 23h ago

MGM Resorts Stock Sinks After Diller Deal Collapse: Overreaction or Warning?

Yahoo Finance report covering MGM Resorts International (MGM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH TradingView • 1d ago

MGM Resorts International Stock 12‑Month Price Target Cut to $49.28, Implies 61% Upside

TradingView report covering MGM Resorts International (MGM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Las Vegas Review-Journal • 1d ago

Inside Gaming: MGM Resorts, Wynn and betting giants hit hard as gaming stocks struggle

Las Vegas Review-Journal report covering MGM Resorts International (MGM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketWatch • 1d ago

MGM Resorts International stock underperforms Friday when compared to competitors

MarketWatch report covering MGM Resorts International (MGM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Reuters • 1d ago

MGM Resorts amends voting agreement after People Inc withdraws takeover proposal

Reuters report covering MGM Resorts International (MGM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

MGM Resorts: The Buyer Walked Away, Not The Business (NYSE:MGM)

Seeking Alpha report covering MGM Resorts International (MGM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Hotel Dive • 1d ago

MGM Resorts amends deal with People Inc., shares Q3 results

Hotel Dive report covering MGM Resorts International (MGM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

MGM Resorts (MGM) Stock Sees Fair Value Cut After Mixed Analyst Target Changes

Yahoo Finance report covering MGM Resorts International (MGM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MGM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $30.56?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MGM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $38.05 (+27.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

A 20.02% FCF yield and 12% ROIC indicate strong cash generation relative to the stock price.

A 20.02% FCF yield and 12% ROIC indicate strong cash generation relative to the stock price.. When you look under the hood at MGM, Fundamental Cash Engine is 13/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 12.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (7/20) has been quietly accumulating below $51.59. My 12M target is $38.05.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@MidwestValue Agree on the RQD 46/100 quality, though with 1.11 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $29.96 and keeping dry powder in case we test $27.86.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $23.97 (-20.0%)

Spot @ $29.96

A 0.71 Altman Z-Score, 2.56 Debt/Equity, and a 35.4 trailing P/E point to leverage and stretched valuation against weak earnings.

A 0.71 Altman Z-Score, 2.56 Debt/Equity, and a 35.4 trailing P/E point to leverage and stretched valuation against weak earnings.. Look at the math on MGM: paying 35.4x trailing P/E for 12.0% ROIC and 5.7% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Hotels/Resorts demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $26.36 before getting long.