Should I buy, hold, or sell ARCO stock right now?

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 48/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 7x P/E (19% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is ARCO's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ARCO's 12-month base price target is $6.43 (range $5.02 to $10.24), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ARCO

WEN (49) BJRI (61) SG (31) CBRL (70) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$6.73 -2.46% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.69

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.42B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ARCO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: ARCO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $6.73 (-2.46% 1D, market cap $1.42B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ARCO ranks #591 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ARCO compare to WEN and BJRI in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), ARCO carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.9x, gross margin of 96.0%, and ROIC of 18.9%. By comparison, WEN (Wendy's Company) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 8.3x, ROIC 10.7%, cap $1.37B) and BJRI (BJ's Restaurants Inc.) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 27.6x, ROIC 10.7%, cap $1.33B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARCO leads on earnings multiple (6.9x) while ARCO leads on capital efficiency (18.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARCO?

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Per ARCO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001508478), Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) generated $4.68B in revenue (+4.7% YoY), $212.1M in net income, and $15.0M in free cash flow against $3.89B in total assets and $1.13B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.69 (-0.63%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 0.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARCO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ARCO SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (33% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.16% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.3% FCF Margin ($15.0M FCF) & 98.1% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$7.99+1.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$8.14-14% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$7.00-3.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D$6.73-5.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ARCO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ARCO currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($7.69) and Max Pain ($7.07) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $10.24.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.16% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARCO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ARCO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

33.430 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDWATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)

2.10>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

8 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE2% OF RANGE

L: $7$6.73H: $10

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (96.0% gross margin), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: CRQD 13 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 19 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 16 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on ARCO

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (65)

18.9% ROIC with 96.0% gross margin and 1.03% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (55)

Altman-Z 2.10 and Piotroski 8/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (40)

19/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 5/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ARCO

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ARCO)

✓Walkthrough of ARCO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ARCO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.20%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $6.90H $6.90L $6.73C $6.73VOL 2.20M

RES: $8.14SUP: $6.27SMA50: $7.69SMA200: $8.20

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARCO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARCO Butterfly Map → + Track ARCO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

-8.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARCO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARCO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARCO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARCO)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #591 of 1009 ⚔️ WEN vs ARCO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ARCO vs. WEN, BJRI, SG, CBRL)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) ranks #591 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #462 by equity capitalization ($1.42B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARCO leads on earnings valuation at 6.9x trailing P/E, while ARCO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.9% ROIC and 96.0% gross margin. CBRL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with ARCO at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ARCO ACTIVE Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A)	D	48/100	6.9x	96.0%	18.9%	-2.46%	$1.42B	Benchmark Subject
WEN Wendy's Company	D	49/100	8.3x	63.6%	10.7%	+0.63%	$1.37B	/wen-vs-arco →
BJRI BJ's Restaurants Inc.	C-	61/100	27.6x	74.7%	10.7%	-1.18%	$1.33B	/bjri-vs-arco →
SG Sweetgreen Inc. (Class A)	E	31/100	—	—	-35.0%	-2.98%	$1.32B	/sg-vs-arco →
CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc	B-	70/100	34.9x	69.0%	5.4%	-3.31%	$1.57B	/cbrl-vs-arco →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001508478 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) reported GAAP revenue of $4.68B (+4.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.47B , and +8.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $212.1M, operating cash flow of $296.3M, and free cash flow of $15.0M (+124.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARCO closed FY2025 with $3.89B in total assets against $1.13B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.10, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$4.68B	$212.1M	$296.3M	$15.0M	$3.89B	$1.13B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$4.47B	$148.8M	$266.8M	-$60.8M	$2.89B	$716.0M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$4.33B	$181.3M	$382.0M	$382.0M	—	—

3. ARCO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARCO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ARCO compare to WEN and BJRI in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARCO?

Where is ARCO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARCO last traded at $6.73 (-2.46% on volume of 2,196,564 shares), positioning the stock -12.48% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.69) and -17.93% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.20). Across its 52-week range of $6.67 to $9.75, ARCO sits at the 1.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.7% ($6.28 to $7.18).

Direct Sub-Reports: ARCO RQD Cockpit ARCO 12M Forecast ARCO Earnings & Move ARCO Dividends & DRIP ARCO Insiders & 13F ARCO Whale Options ARCO Profit Sankey ARCO News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 48/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ARCO — Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 48/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $6.73 (-2.46% 1D, market capitalization $1.42B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 18.9%, gross margin of 96.0%, operating margin of 7.8%, and free cash flow yield of 1.03%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.10, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.46x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Restaurants industry. Specific product lines, customer base, and revenue mechanics are not itemized in the source data. Gross margin is reported at 96% per the market data, operating margin at 7.8%, and net margin at 4.5%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) reported $4.68B in annual revenue (up from $4.47B in FY2024, +4.7% YoY) and $212.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($4.33B revenue, $181.3M net income) through FY2025, ARCO scaled operating cash flow to $296.3M and free cash flow to $15.0M, backed by $3.89B in total assets against $1.13B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 48/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 1.03% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $6.67 – $9.75 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 6.9x trailing P/E and 3.7x EV/EBITDA against 7.8% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Restaurants (Consumer Discretionary), ARCO carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 96.0%.

Key Question #1: Can ARCO sustain or expand its 7.8% operating margin and 18.9% ROIC against Restaurants peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $4.68B and free cash flow of $15.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.13B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is ARCO's 6.4x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ARCO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ARCO Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 22h ago

Should Value Investors Buy Arcos Dorados (ARCO) Stock?

Yahoo Finance report covering Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stocktwits • 1d ago

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc - Ordinary Shares - Class A (ARCO) News, Articles, Events & Latest Updates

Stocktwits report covering Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Motley Fool • 1d ago

Why Arcos Dorados Stock Got Socked Today

The Motley Fool report covering Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Arcos Dorados (ARCO) Surges 13.9%: Is This an Indication of Further Gains?

Yahoo Finance report covering Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Arcos Dorados (NYSE:ARCO) Shares Gap Up - What's Next?

MarketBeat report covering Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Arcos Dorados Holdings (ARCO), What Is Drawing Fresh Attention Now?

Simply Wall St report covering Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Is Arcos Dorados (ARCO) a Solid Growth Stock? 3 Reasons to Think "Yes"

Yahoo Finance report covering Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH StocksToTrade • 1d ago

Arcos Dorados Shares Fall 11% On Brazil Fears And Rating Cut

StocksToTrade report covering Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ARCO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $6.73?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ARCO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $8.48 (+26.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue grew from $4.33B (FY 2023) to $4.68B (FY 2025) while ROIC sits at 18.9% and insider-flow pillar scored 16/20.

Long ARCO at $6.73 targeting $8.48. Revenue grew from $4.33B (FY 2023) to $4.68B (FY 2025) while ROIC sits at 18.9% and insider-flow pillar scored 16/20.. Institutional whale score is 3/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $6.67 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@ShortSeller_Dan Fair point on 6.9x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Restaurants. If gross margin (96.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $5.52 (-18.0%)

Spot @ $6.73

Free cash flow fell to $15.0M in FY 2025 against $1.13B of debt, and institutional flow scored only 3/20 under the RQD rating.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on ARCO: Free cash flow fell to $15.0M in FY 2025 against $1.13B of debt, and institutional flow scored only 3/20 under the RQD rating.. At 6.9x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Restaurants triggers a 12-15% air pocket.