Valmont Industries Inc. (VMI) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$422.10 -2.46% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $419.43

Valmont Industries Inc. (VMI) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $8.28B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is VMI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-02, Valmont Industries Inc. (NYSE: VMI) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $422.10 (-2.46% 1D, market cap $8.28B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, VMI ranks #122 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does VMI compare to TKR and NPO in the Industrials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Industrials sector (Metal Fabrications), VMI carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 23.6x, gross margin of 30.2%, and ROIC of 14.7%. By comparison, TKR (Timken Company) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 27.6x, ROIC 9.1%, cap $7.96B) and NPO (Enpro Inc.) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 148.7x, ROIC 6.1%, cap $6.02B). Among the 5-stock peer group, VMI leads on earnings multiple (23.6x) while WTS leads on capital efficiency (19.5% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VMI?
β–Ό

Per VMI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-27, CIK 0000102729), Valmont Industries Inc. generated $4.10B in revenue (+0.7% YoY), $350.3M in net income, and $311.4M in free cash flow against $3.37B in total assets and $795.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $419.44 (-0.63%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) β€’ 7.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 53.9% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C-
025507510061
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- Β· Rk C
Cash (14)Whales (6)SEC (18)Macro (7)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.4% Base Target
$615 Bull$428 Base$334 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE VMI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VMI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±6.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (61/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY VMI SCORES 61/100 (C-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.17 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 7/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
69
Grade B-$471.96-4.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
66
Grade B-$450.68-3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
64
Grade C+$436.96-3.4% Next Q
Current
61
Grade C-$422.10+0.5% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: B- (69) β†’ C- (61)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the VMI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 61/100 (C-) score, VMI faces multiple-compression risk if 23.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 27.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($463.02) or 200D SMA ($477.84) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($427.80) toward Bear Floor ($333.68).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VMIβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œVMI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 26, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±6.7%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (VMI)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for VMI.

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FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating VMI & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • βœ“Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on VMI
  • βœ“How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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VMI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -16.76%πŸ›‘οΈ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $434.6H $434.6L $422.1C $422.1VOL 204.0K
RES: $477.8SUP: $416.2SMA50: $463.0SMA200: $477.8
$597.9$547.3$496.7$446.2$395.6RES $477.8SUP $416.2$422.12026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VMI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
17.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +0.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VMI today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VMI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VMI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VMI)

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (VMI vs. TKR, NPO, WTS, CR)

Industry: Metal Fabrications (47 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Valmont Industries Inc. (VMI) ranks #122 by composite RQD confidence (61/100, grade C-) and #112 by equity capitalization ($8.28B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VMI leads on earnings valuation at 23.6x trailing P/E, while WTS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.5% ROIC and 49.5% gross margin. WTS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with VMI at 61/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
VMI ACTIVE
Valmont Industries Inc.
C- 61/100 23.6x 30.2% 14.7% -2.46% $8.28B Benchmark Subject
TKR
Timken Company
D+ 58/100 27.6x 30.4% 9.1% -3.42% $7.96B /tkr-vs-vmi β†’
NPO
Enpro Inc.
D+ 53/100 148.7x 42.6% 6.1% -4.54% $6.02B /npo-vs-vmi β†’
WTS
Watts Water Technologies Inc.
C+ 68/100 34.4x 49.5% 19.5% -0.94% $11.71B /wts-vs-vmi β†’
CR
Crane Company
C+ 67/100 32.4x 42.2% 12.4% -3.78% $11.90B /cr-vs-vmi β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-27 β€’ CIK 0000102729

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-27), Valmont Industries Inc. (VMI) reported GAAP revenue of $4.10B (+0.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.08B , and -1.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $350.3M, operating cash flow of $456.5M, and free cash flow of $311.4M (-36.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, VMI closed FY2025 with $3.37B in total assets against $795.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.17, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-27 $4.10B $350.3M $456.5M $311.4M $3.37B $795.1M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-28 $4.08B $348.3M $572.7M $493.2M $3.33B $729.9M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-30 $4.17B $150.8M $306.8M $118.9M $5.01B $1.17B

3. VMI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VMI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Valmont Industries Inc. (NYSE: VMI) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $422.10 (-2.46% 1D, market cap $8.28B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, VMI ranks #122 in composite RQD confidence.

How does VMI compare to TKR and NPO in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Metal Fabrications), VMI carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 23.6x, gross margin of 30.2%, and ROIC of 14.7%. By comparison, TKR (Timken Company) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 27.6x, ROIC 9.1%, cap $7.96B) and NPO (Enpro Inc.) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 148.7x, ROIC 6.1%, cap $6.02B). Among the 5-stock peer group, VMI leads on earnings multiple (23.6x) while WTS leads on capital efficiency (19.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VMI?

Per VMI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-27, CIK 0000102729), Valmont Industries Inc. generated $4.10B in revenue (+0.7% YoY), $350.3M in net income, and $311.4M in free cash flow against $3.37B in total assets and $795.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is VMI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VMI last traded at $422.10 (-2.46% on volume of 165,906 shares), positioning the stock -8.84% below its 50-day simple moving average ($463.02) and -11.66% below its 200-day simple moving average ($477.84). Across its 52-week range of $378.02 to $585.71, VMI sits at the 21.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±6.7% ($393.82 to $450.38).

VMI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

What is VMI's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for VMI.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 61/100 (C-) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

VMI β€” Valmont Industries Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:17:37Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, VMI scores 61 out of 100, a C- grade labeled "Roarable Hold β€” Cautious Neutral." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 (ROIC 14.7%; FCF yield 3.76%), Whale 13F Flow at 6/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 16/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 7/20 (Beta 0.9; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 18/20 (Altman Z 6.17; Piotroski F 7/9; Debt/Equity 0.49). The strongest pillar is the forensic balance sheet, which indicates low financial-distress risk per the SEC financials and rating inputs. The weakest pillars are institutional flow (6/20) and macro regime fit (7/20), which suggest limited whale-driven momentum and only moderate alignment with the current macro backdrop. The fundamental cash engine score (14/20) reflects a respectable ROIC alongside a modest 3.76% FCF yield, meaning the stock is not cheap on free cash flow relative to its price. Taken together, the rating points to a balanced, cautious posture: financial quality supports the case, while valuation and flow signals temper enthusiasm. A prospective investor should weigh the balance-sheet strength against a 23.6 trailing P/E and a 16.5 EV/EBITDA multiple, and recognize that a Hold rating does not imply an immediate directional catalyst.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
$432.76$8.28B23.621.916.518.30.63%0.9$378.02 - $585.7114.7%

Business

Valmont Industries Inc. is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, within the Metal Fabrications industry, per the company profile. Per the market data, the company reports a gross margin of 30.2%, an operating margin of 10.1%, and a net margin of 8.5%. The source data does not provide a detailed description of its products, customers, or revenue model beyond these classifications.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$4104.1M$415.6M$350.3MN/A$311.4M$187.1M$795.1M
FY 2024$4075.0M$524.6M$348.3MN/A$493.2M$164.3M$729.9M
FY 2023$4174.6M$291.6M$150.8MN/A$118.9MN/A$1172.2M

Per the SEC financials, revenue was broadly flat across the three reported periods, while operating income peaked in FY 2024 at $524.6M before declining to $415.6M in FY 2025. Free cash flow followed a similar pattern, falling from $493.2M to $311.4M, and debt declined from $1172.2M in FY 2023 to $795.1M in FY 2025. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 6.17 and the Piotroski F-Score is 7 of 9, with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.49, which together describe a financially sound balance sheet. ROIC of 14.7% per the market data indicates healthy capital efficiency.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts feed, the most prominent items are headlines describing VMI's Q3 earnings topping estimates and a Q3 earnings narrative emphasizing a utility growth story despite cost pressure, the latter flagged as a GREEN catalyst. Stifel is reported as reiterating a Buy rating with a $623 target, and MarketBeat reports a move down to "Hold" by Wall Street Zen. A Seeking Alpha item references a 2026 Q3 earnings call presentation dated 2026-10-21. The feed's other items are generally flagged YELLOW as market-wire coverage. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as NONE, with no butterfly links or proprietary signals. Risk watch items supported by the sources include the cost-pressure reference in the Q3 coverage and the Hold downgrade noted by MarketBeat. The source data does not specify the magnitude of the earnings beat or the cost drivers.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is NONE, with an empty list of butterfly links and no proprietary signals. The source data therefore does not identify specific upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector correlations. Investors should note that the company's sector classification (Industrials; Metal Fabrications) and the Q3 narrative referencing a utility growth story suggest exposure to utility-related end markets, but the source data does not quantify or specify these dependencies. Any second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the provided data.

Open Questions

  • What are the specific drivers of the Q3 earnings beat and the cost pressures referenced in the news coverage, and how do they affect margins going forward?
  • What is the consensus analyst rating and price target distribution, beyond the single Stifel reference?
  • What insider, 13F institutional, and Congressional trades underlie the insider and whale-flow pillar scores?
  • Why did reported EPS remain N/A across all three fiscal periods, and how does it reconcile with the TTM EPS of 18.3?
  • What products, end markets, and customers drive revenue, and how exposed is the company to utility-sector demand?

VMI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Valmont Industries Inc. (VMI) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to VMI Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

VMI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $422.10?

πŸ‚ 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON VMI 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on VMI:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk βš–οΈ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $467.38 (+8.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is VMI (C- β€’ RQD 61/100) a Buy at $432.76?

Welcome to the VMI (Valmont Industries Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 61/100 (Roarable Hold β€” Cautious Neutral) in Metal Fabrications. Bulls point to capital efficiency (14.7% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

BE BearTrap_Alert Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $337.55 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $432.76

Pump the brakes on VMI β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on VMI, but look at what you are paying: 23.6x trailing P/E with 30.2% gross margins. Unless Valmont Industries Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $540.95 (+25.0%)
Spot @ $432.76

VMI cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on VMI, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Metal Fabrications and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $432.76 (52-wk range $378.02 - $585.71), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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