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Universal Logistics Holdings Inc. (ULH) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$28.54 +26.34% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.84

Universal Logistics Holdings Inc. (ULH) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 43/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $595.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ULH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Universal Logistics Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: ULH) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $28.54 (+26.34% 1D, market cap $595.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, ULH ranks #316 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ULH compare to CVLG and HTLD in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Trucking Freight/Courier Services), ULH carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -4.2%. By comparison, CVLG (Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E 101.0x, ROIC 0.4%, cap $784.7M) and HTLD (Heartland Express Inc.) posts a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.1%, cap $790.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MRTN leads on earnings multiple (55.1x) while MRTN leads on capital efficiency (2.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ULH?
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Per ULH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001308208), Universal Logistics Holdings Inc. generated $1.56B in revenue (-15.6% YoY), -$99.9M in net income, and -$41.1M in free cash flow against $1.77B in total assets and $682.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.84 (+4.55%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
025507510043
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D-
Cash (9)Whales (15)SEC (8)Macro (8)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.8% Base Target
$31 Bull$27 Base$21 Bear
📬 FREE ULH RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ULH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (43/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ULH SCORES 43/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (35% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
35
Grade E$17.41-7.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
38
Grade E$16.12+2.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
40
Grade D$16.56+72.3% Next Q
Current
43
Grade D-$28.54-6.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (35) → D- (43)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ULH Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ULH currently carries a cautious 43/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($17.83) and Max Pain ($29.97) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $31.40.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ULH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ULH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 43%NO 57%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±12.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ULH)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ULH.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ULH)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ULH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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ULH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +76.94%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $17.42H $28.54L $17.42C $28.54VOL 183.0K
RES: $22.30SUP: $15.94SMA50: $17.83SMA200: $17.42
$29.72$24.84$19.97$15.09$10.22RES $22.30SUP $15.94$28.542026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ULH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ULH Butterfly Map → + Track ULH →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -15.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ULH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ULH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ULH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ULH)

Industrials Rank #316 of 486 ⚔️ CVLG vs ULH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (ULH vs. CVLG, HTLD, MRTN, PAMT)

Industry: Trucking Freight/Courier Services (19 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Universal Logistics Holdings Inc. (ULH) ranks #316 by composite RQD confidence (43/100, grade D-) and #286 by equity capitalization ($595.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MRTN leads on earnings valuation at 55.1x trailing P/E, while MRTN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 2.5% ROIC and — gross margin. MRTN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 47/100 (D) compared with ULH at 43/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ULH ACTIVE
Universal Logistics Holdings Inc.
D- 43/100 — — -4.2% +26.34% $595.6M Benchmark Subject
CVLG
Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A)
D- 36/100 101.0x — 0.4% +8.25% $784.7M /cvlg-vs-ulh →
HTLD
Heartland Express Inc.
E 28/100 — — -5.1% +3.33% $790.3M /htld-vs-ulh →
MRTN
Marten Transport Ltd.
D 47/100 55.1x — 2.5% +2.56% $957.1M /mrtn-vs-ulh →
PAMT
PAMT CORP
D- 35/100 — — -11.4% +4.48% $243.1M /pamt-vs-ulh →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001308208 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Universal Logistics Holdings Inc. (ULH) reported GAAP revenue of $1.56B (-15.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.85B , and -6.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$99.9M, operating cash flow of $183.0M, and free cash flow of -$41.1M (+70.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, ULH closed FY2025 with $1.77B in total assets against $682.7M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.56B -$99.9M $183.0M -$41.1M $1.77B $682.7M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.85B $129.9M $112.4M -$139.2M $1.79B $670.3M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.66B $92.9M $210.2M $210.2M — —

3. ULH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ULH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Universal Logistics Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: ULH) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $28.54 (+26.34% 1D, market cap $595.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, ULH ranks #316 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ULH compare to CVLG and HTLD in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Trucking Freight/Courier Services), ULH carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -4.2%. By comparison, CVLG (Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E 101.0x, ROIC 0.4%, cap $784.7M) and HTLD (Heartland Express Inc.) posts a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.1%, cap $790.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MRTN leads on earnings multiple (55.1x) while MRTN leads on capital efficiency (2.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ULH?

Per ULH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001308208), Universal Logistics Holdings Inc. generated $1.56B in revenue (-15.6% YoY), -$99.9M in net income, and -$41.1M in free cash flow against $1.77B in total assets and $682.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ULH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ULH last traded at $28.54 (+26.34% on volume of 211,759 shares), positioning the stock +60.07% above its 50-day simple moving average ($17.83) and +63.83% above its 200-day simple moving average ($17.42). Across its 52-week range of $11.73 to $25.80, ULH sits at the 100.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($24.97 to $32.11).

Direct Sub-Reports: ULH RQD Cockpit ULH 12M Forecast ULH Earnings & Move ULH Dividends & DRIP ULH Insiders & 13F ULH Whale Options ULH Profit Sankey ULH News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 43/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ULH — Universal Logistics Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Universal Logistics Holdings Inc. (ULH) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 43/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $28.54 (+26.34% 1D, market capitalization $595.6M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -4.2%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -4.1%, and free cash flow yield of -8.95%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (15/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.26x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Universal Logistics Holdings Inc. (ULH) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, within the Trucking Freight/Courier Services industry. The profile describes the company as operating in trucking freight and courier services with a market capitalization of $0.5B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Universal Logistics Holdings Inc. (ULH) reported $1.56B in annual revenue (up from $1.85B in FY2024, -15.6% YoY) and -$99.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.66B revenue, $92.9M net income) through FY2025, ULH scaled operating cash flow to $183.0M and free cash flow to -$41.1M, backed by $1.77B in total assets against $682.7M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 43/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of -8.95% and institutional whale pillar of 15/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 15/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $11.73 – $25.80 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -4.1% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector correlations and 2nd-order dependencies cannot be mapped from the source data. An investor should note that the absence of mapped links means no supply-chain ripple effects can be verified here; the only sector context available is that ULH sits in Trucking Freight/Courier Services with beta of 1.0 per the RQD rating and market data.

  • Key Question #1: Can ULH sustain or expand its -4.1% operating margin and -4.2% ROIC against Trucking Freight/Courier Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.56B and free cash flow of -$41.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $682.7M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ULH's equity valuation to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ULH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Universal Logistics Holdings Inc. (ULH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ULH Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ULH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $28.54?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ULH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ULH:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $28.69 (+27.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Q3 earnings reportedly beat estimates and were said to revive profitability, with the stock up 2.23% on the day.

Q3 earnings reportedly beat estimates and were said to revive profitability, with the stock up 2.23% on the day.. When you look under the hood at ULH, Fundamental Cash Engine is 9/20 with 0.0% gross margins and -4.2% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (15/20) has been quietly accumulating below $25.80. My 12M target is $28.69.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — ULH's 8/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $19.43 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $22.59

Negative ROIC of -4.2%, FCF yield of -8.95%, and a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 show weak cash generation and a leveraged balance sheet.

Careful chasing ULH at $22.59. Negative ROIC of -4.2%, FCF yield of -8.95%, and a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 show weak cash generation and a leveraged balance sheet.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is -4.1%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $19.43 on multiple compression.

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