MARKET WIREYahoo • 3d ago
UGP or ENB: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?UGP vs. ENB: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?
Why UGP Stock dropped -2.68% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$5.81 -2.68% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.77
Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $6.64B
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Is UGP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (NYSE: UGP) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $5.81 (-2.68% 1D, market cap $6.64B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, UGP ranks #122 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does UGP compare to NFG and NJR in the Energy sector?
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Within the Energy sector (Oil/Gas Transmission), UGP carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, NFG (National Fuel Gas Company) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 14.5x, ROIC 9.7%, cap $7.54B) and NJR (NewJersey Resources Corporation) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 16.1x, ROIC 16.3%, cap $5.39B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NFG leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while NJR leads on capital efficiency (16.3% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UGP?
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For Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #122 in Energy, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 8.0%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.77 (-0.67%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 4.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.2% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UGP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY UGP SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (25% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (25% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 47% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 26.1 (OVERSOLD (<32))
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$7.89-1.5% Next Q
61
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$7.77-15.6% Next Q
58
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$6.56-11.4% Next Q
56
CurrentGrade D+$5.81-0.9% Hist 90D α
53
Trajectory: C (61) → D+ (53)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a UGP Turnaround Squeeze
While UGP currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($7.27) and Max Pain ($6.10) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.69.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UGP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “UGP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why UGP Stock dropped -2.68% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) dropped -2.68% to $5.81, trading at 47% of its 52-week range ($3.6 – $8.28). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 47% of its 52-week range ($3.6 – $8.28) with RSI-14 at 26.1 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.2% around $5.81 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $186.0M annual free cash flow.
Live UGP Headlines & Catalysts
CATALYSTYahoo • 3d ago
Should Value Investors Buy Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Stock?Here at Zacks, our focus is on the proven Zacks Rank system, which emphasizes earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find great stocks. Nevertheless, we are always paying attention to the latest value, growth, and
CATALYSTYahoo • 5d ago
Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Loses 12.8% in 4 Weeks, Here's Why a Trend Reversal May be Around the CornerThe heavy selling pressure might have exhausted for Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) as it is technically in oversold territory now. In addition to this technical measure, strong agreement among Wall Street analysts in revis
CATALYSTYahoo • 6d ago
Down 8.0% in 4 Weeks, Here's Why Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Looks Ripe for a TurnaroundUltrapar Participacoes (UGP) has become technically an oversold stock now, which implies exhaustion of the heavy selling pressure on it. This, combined with strong agreement among Wall Street analysts in revising earning
MARKET WIREFintel • 7d ago
Ultrapar Participações S.A. Announces Sale of 7,599,879 Shares by PátriaCATALYSTSeekingAlpha • 9d ago
Our Top 10 High Growth Dividend Stocks - October 2026Discover a proven method to pick high-growth dividend stocks using dividend growth, sustainability, and momentumâsee the top 10 names to buy now.
CATALYSTYahoo • 10d ago
3 Reasons Why Growth Investors Shouldn't Overlook Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP)Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) could produce exceptional returns because of its solid growth attributes.
CATALYSTYahoo • 10d ago
Best Growth Stocks to Buy for October 23rdUGP, WOOF and MNDY made it to the Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) growth stocks list on October 23, 2026
CATALYSTYahoo • 10d ago
Zacks.com featured highlights include Ultrapar Participacoes, Chatham Lodging, Arcos Dorados, Occidental and Kohl'sUGP, CLDT, ARCO, OXY and KSS offer attractive EV to EBITDA ratios, with projected 2026 earnings growth ranging from 29.6% to 207.7%.
CATALYSTYahoo • 11d ago
5 Value Stocks With Attractive EV-to-EBITDA Ratios to Scoop UpUGP, CLDT, ARCO, OXY and KSS stand out with attractive EV-to-EBITDA ratios and strong earnings outlook.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring UGP)
- ✓Walkthrough of UGP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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UGP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -2.84%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-02O $6.12H $6.12L $5.81C $5.81VOL 4.31M
RES: $9.03SUP: $7.62SMA50: $7.27SMA200: $5.94
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
UGP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UGP today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UGP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UGP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UGP)
Energy Rank #122 of 211
⚔️ NFG vs UGP Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (UGP vs. NFG, NJR, SR, OGS)
Industry: Oil/Gas Transmission (13 Tracked Issuers)Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) ranks #122 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #74 by equity capitalization ($6.64B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NFG leads on earnings valuation at 14.5x trailing P/E, while NJR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.3% ROIC and — gross margin. NJR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with UGP at 53/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UGP
ACTIVE
Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) | D+ | 53/100 | — | — | — | -2.68% | $6.64B | Benchmark Subject |
| NFG National Fuel Gas Company | D+ | 58/100 | 14.5x | 90.4% | 9.7% | +0.24% | $7.54B | /nfg-vs-ugp → |
| NJR NewJersey Resources Corporation | B- | 71/100 | 16.1x | — | 16.3% | +0.19% | $5.39B | /njr-vs-ugp → |
| SR Spire Inc. | D- | 43/100 | 18.9x | 58.8% | 5.3% | +1.48% | $5.13B | /sr-vs-ugp → |
| OGS ONE Gas Inc. | D | 49/100 | 18.6x | — | 6.2% | +0.56% | $4.91B | /ogs-vs-ugp → |
2. UGP Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics
TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOTUltrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) operates in Oil/Gas Transmission (Energy) with an equity capitalization of $6.64B, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.
3. UGP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs UGP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-02, Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (NYSE: UGP) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $5.81 (-2.68% 1D, market cap $6.64B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, UGP ranks #122 in composite RQD confidence.
How does UGP compare to NFG and NJR in the Energy sector?
Within the Energy sector (Oil/Gas Transmission), UGP carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, NFG (National Fuel Gas Company) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 14.5x, ROIC 9.7%, cap $7.54B) and NJR (NewJersey Resources Corporation) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 16.1x, ROIC 16.3%, cap $5.39B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NFG leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while NJR leads on capital efficiency (16.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UGP?
For Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #122 in Energy, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 8.0%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is UGP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
UGP last traded at $5.81 (-2.68% on volume of 3,776,226 shares), positioning the stock -20.08% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.27) and -2.19% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.94). Across its 52-week range of $3.60 to $8.28, UGP sits at the 47.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 26.1 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.2% ($5.39 to $6.23).
UGP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is UGP stock moving today?
Why UGP Stock dropped -2.68% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 53/100 (D+)
✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED
UGP — Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T14:10:50Z
Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Per the Roarable RQD rating, UGP scores 53 out of 100, earning a D+ grade and the verdict "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are:
- Fundamental cash engine: 12 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 0% and an FCF yield of 0%. For a prospective investor, the absence of measurable returns on invested capital and free cash flow yield is the single largest drag on the score.
- Whale 13F flow: 6 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar covers institutional accumulation and options positioning. The low score indicates limited institutional support signals in the rating's inputs.
- Insider conviction: 9 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar covers SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The below-midpoint score indicates weak insider-conviction signals.
- Macro regime fit: 13 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.0 and sector sensitivity is factored in. This is a moderate score, meaning the stock's market sensitivity is neither a major strength nor a major weakness in the rating's framework.
- Forensic balance sheet: 13 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, Altman Z is 2.5, Piotroski F is 6/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. This is the strongest pillar, indicating a moderately sound balance-sheet profile.
Taken together, the pillar pattern suggests the balance sheet is the most defensible element while earnings-generation and ownership-flow signals are the weakest. Upside drivers in this framework would need to come from improved cash generation or stronger institutional and insider conviction; the rating does not show these developing. Valuation tradeoffs cannot be fully assessed because P/E, EV/EBITDA, and EPS are not available in source data.
Open Questions
- What are the reported revenue, operating income, and net income figures, given that the financials section contains no periods?
- Why are margins and ROIC reported as 0%, and do these reflect true zero values or missing data?
- What is the company's current earnings per share and valuation multiple, given that P/E, EV/EBITDA, and EPS are unavailable?
- What does the company sell, and who are its principal customers and revenue sources?
- What is the analyst consensus, price target range, and recent insider or institutional ownership activity?
UGP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 3d ago
UGP or ENB: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now? UGP vs. ENB: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 3d ago
Should Value Investors Buy Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Stock? Here at Zacks, our focus is on the proven Zacks Rank system, which emphasizes earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find great stocks. Nevertheless, we are always paying attention to the latest value, growth, and
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 5d ago
Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Loses 12.8% in 4 Weeks, Here's Why a Trend Reversal May be Around the Corner The heavy selling pressure might have exhausted for Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) as it is technically in oversold territory now. In addition to this technical measure, strong agreement among Wall Street analysts in revis
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 6d ago
Down 8.0% in 4 Weeks, Here's Why Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Looks Ripe for a Turnaround Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) has become technically an oversold stock now, which implies exhaustion of the heavy selling pressure on it. This, combined with strong agreement among Wall Street analysts in revising earning
🟡 MARKET WIRE Fintel • 7d ago
Ultrapar Participações S.A. Announces Sale of 7,599,879 Shares by Pátria 🟢 CATALYST SeekingAlpha • 9d ago
Our Top 10 High Growth Dividend Stocks - October 2026 Discover a proven method to pick high-growth dividend stocks using dividend growth, sustainability, and momentumâsee the top 10 names to buy now.
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 10d ago
3 Reasons Why Growth Investors Shouldn't Overlook Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) could produce exceptional returns because of its solid growth attributes.
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 10d ago
Best Growth Stocks to Buy for October 23rd UGP, WOOF and MNDY made it to the Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) growth stocks list on October 23, 2026
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE
3 Active Posts & Replies
UGP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $5.81?
🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON UGP 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST
🎯 Target: $6.45 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate 🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is UGP (D+ • RQD 53/100) a Buy at $5.97?
Welcome to the UGP (Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share)) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 53/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Oil/Gas Transmission. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH
🎯 Target: $4.90 (-17.9%)
Spot @ $5.97 Pump the brakes on UGP — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on UGP, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH
🎯 Target: $7.52 (+26.0%)
Spot @ $5.97 UGP cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on UGP, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Oil/Gas Transmission and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $5.97 (52-wk range $3.60 - $8.28), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.