UGP (53) NJR (71) SR (43) OGS (49) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$79.55 +0.24% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $79.43

National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $7.54B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NFG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NFG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, National Fuel Gas Company (NYSE: NFG) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $79.55 (+0.24% 1D, market cap $7.54B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, NFG ranks #104 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NFG compare to UGP and NJR in the Energy sector?

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Within the Energy sector (Oil/Gas Transmission), NFG carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.5x, gross margin of 90.4%, and ROIC of 9.7%. By comparison, UGP (Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share)) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $6.64B) and NJR (NewJersey Resources Corporation) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 16.1x, ROIC 16.3%, cap $5.39B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NFG leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while NJR leads on capital efficiency (16.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NFG?

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Per NFG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0000070145), National Fuel Gas Company generated $2.22B in revenue (+30.0% YoY), $518.5M in net income, and $187.2M in free cash flow against $9.21B in total assets and $2.08B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $79.43 (-0.15%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 8.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NFG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NFG SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.83 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$81.09-1.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$79.85+2.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$81.57-2.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$79.55+0% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (66) → D+ (58)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NFG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, NFG faces multiple-compression risk if 14.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 87.9% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($80.18) or 200D SMA ($83.35) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($79.55) toward Bear Floor ($62.05).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NFG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NFG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 58%NO 42%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

48.430 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDWATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)

1.83>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

8 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE21% OF RANGE

L: $75$79.55H: $97

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 8 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 24 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on NFG

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (40)

9.7% ROIC with 90.4% gross margin and 2.48% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (70)

Altman-Z 1.83 and Piotroski 8/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (60)

24/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 12/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like NFG

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NFG)

✓Walkthrough of NFG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

NFG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.18%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $80.21H $80.21L $79.36C $79.55VOL 996.3K

RES: $84.82SUP: $72.89SMA50: $80.18SMA200: $83.35

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NFG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NFG Butterfly Map → + Track NFG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

6.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +30.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NFG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NFG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NFG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NFG)

Energy Rank #104 of 211 ⚔️ UGP vs NFG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (NFG vs. UGP, NJR, SR, OGS)

Industry: Oil/Gas Transmission (13 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) ranks #104 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #67 by equity capitalization ($7.54B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NFG leads on earnings valuation at 14.5x trailing P/E, while NJR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.3% ROIC and — gross margin. NJR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with NFG at 58/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NFG ACTIVE National Fuel Gas Company	D+	58/100	14.5x	90.4%	9.7%	+0.24%	$7.54B	Benchmark Subject
UGP Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share)	D+	53/100	—	—	—	-2.68%	$6.64B	/ugp-vs-nfg →
NJR NewJersey Resources Corporation	B-	71/100	16.1x	—	16.3%	+0.19%	$5.39B	/njr-vs-nfg →
SR Spire Inc.	D-	43/100	18.9x	58.8%	5.3%	+1.48%	$5.13B	/sr-vs-nfg →
OGS ONE Gas Inc.	D	49/100	18.6x	—	6.2%	+0.56%	$4.91B	/ogs-vs-nfg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0000070145

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) reported GAAP revenue of $2.22B (+30.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.71B , and -1.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $518.5M, operating cash flow of $1.10B, and free cash flow of $187.2M (+39.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, NFG closed FY2025 with $9.21B in total assets against $2.08B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.83, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$2.22B	$518.5M	$1.10B	$187.2M	$9.21B	$2.08B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$1.71B	$77.5M	$1.07B	$134.7M	$8.30B	$2.19B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$2.25B	$476.9M	$1.24B	$1.14B	$4.15B	$970.8M

3. NFG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NFG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does NFG compare to UGP and NJR in the Energy sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NFG?

Where is NFG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NFG last traded at $79.55 (+0.24% on volume of 1,018,133 shares), positioning the stock -0.79% below its 50-day simple moving average ($80.18) and -4.56% below its 200-day simple moving average ($83.35). Across its 52-week range of $75.03 to $97.06, NFG sits at the 20.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.3% ($76.13 to $82.97).

NFG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell NFG stock right now?

National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell — SELL) with 58/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 15x P/E (10% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is NFG's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

NFG's 12-month base price target is $79.55 (range $62.05 to $101.91), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: NFG RQD Cockpit NFG 12M Forecast NFG Earnings & Move NFG Dividends & DRIP NFG Insiders & 13F NFG Whale Options NFG Profit Sankey NFG News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 58/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

NFG — National Fuel Gas Company: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:18:10Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, NFG scores 58 out of 100, a D+ grade with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 8 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 9.7% and an FCF yield of 2.48%. Both are the weakest-scoring inputs in the cash-generation picture for a prospective investor, since the FCF yield is modest relative to the $7.54B market capitalization.
Whale 13F Flow: 8 / 20. The RQD rating cites institutional accumulation and options positioning as the basis for this score. The holders section contains no data, so this pillar cannot be independently verified from the source set.
Insider Conviction: 16 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. This is the strongest pillar in the rating and is the main offset to the weaker cash and institutional scores.
Macro Regime Fit: 12 / 20. Per the RQD rating, beta of 1.15 and sector sensitivity drive this score. A prospective investor should expect the stock to amplify broader market moves.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 14 / 20. Per the RQD rating, Altman Z of 1.83, Piotroski F of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.44 support this score. The Piotroski reading is strong, while the Altman Z sits in a range that warrants attention.

Taken together, the rating points to a stock whose cash generation and institutional support are the main drags, partly offset by insider activity and a reasonably sound balance-sheet profile. Valuation metrics in the market data (forward P/E of 12.2, EV/EBITDA of 5.9) indicate the market is not pricing a premium, which a prospective investor may weigh against the weak cash-engine score. The rating's verdict is a trim signal rather than a fundamental collapse signal, and any decision should account for the pending spin-off described in the catalysts section.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
79.36	$7.54B	14.5	12.2	5.9	5.46	2.5%	1.15	$75.03 - $97.06	9.7%

Open Questions

What are the exact terms, timing, and structure of the planned spin-off of the Integrated Upstream and Gathering business, and how will it affect revenue, cash flow, and debt allocation?
What is the EPS for FY 2023, FY 2024, and FY 2025, given that the financials list EPS as N/A for each period?
What is the FY 2023 cash balance, which is listed as N/A in the financials?
What specific insider transactions, institutional holdings, and options positioning underlie the pillar scores for insider conviction and whale flow?
What analyst ratings and price targets exist for NFG, given that no analyst data is provided?

NFG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NFG Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 5h ago

National Fuel Gas (NFG) Stock Could Be Undervalued As Spin Off Nears

Yahoo Finance report covering National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 8h ago

National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) Discusses Planned Spin-Off of Integrated Upstream and Gathering Business - Slideshow (NYSE:NFG) 2026-10-14

Seeking Alpha report covering National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE www.marketscreener.com • 11h ago

National Fuel Gas Company agreed to Spin-Off 80.1% stake in Integrated Upstream and Gathering business of National Fuel Gas Company.

www.marketscreener.com report covering National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com • 14h ago

National Fuel Gas rises on plan to spin off upstream and gathering unit

Investing.com report covering National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 17h ago

National Fuel Gas Company Announces Plan to Separate Its Integrated Upstream and Gathering Business

Yahoo Finance report covering National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 20h ago

National Fuel Gas Plans 2027 Spinoff to Create Utility and Appalachian Gas Producer

TradingView report covering National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 23h ago

National Fuel Gas (NYSE:NFG) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions

Simply Wall St report covering National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

National Fuel Gas Company $NFG Stock: Cantor Fitzgerald Investment Advisors L.P. Increases Stake

MarketBeat report covering National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NFG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $79.55?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NFG 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $85.71 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is NFG (D+ • RQD 58/100) a Buy at $79.36?

Welcome to the NFG (National Fuel Gas Company) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 58/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Oil/Gas Transmission. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $61.11 (-23.0%)

Spot @ $79.36

Pump the brakes on NFG — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on NFG, but look at what you are paying: 14.5x trailing P/E with 90.4% gross margins. Unless National Fuel Gas Company expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

CA CashFlowKing Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $99.99 (+26.0%)

Spot @ $79.36

NFG cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on NFG, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Oil/Gas Transmission and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $79.36 (52-wk range $75.03 - $97.06), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.