United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±8.7% Move

$104.24 -0.92% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $103.87

United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $34.18B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is UAL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, United Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: UAL) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $104.24 (-0.92% 1D, market cap $34.18B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, UAL ranks #422 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does UAL compare to RYAAY and DAL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Air Freight/Delivery Services), UAL carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 14.0%. By comparison, RYAAY (Ryanair Holdings plc) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $28.10B) and DAL (Delta Air Lines Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 10.7x, ROIC 16.2%, cap $53.71B). Among the 5-stock peer group, UAL leads on earnings multiple (10.2x) while DAL leads on capital efficiency (16.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UAL?
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Per UAL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000100517), United Airlines Holdings Inc. generated $59.07B in revenue (+3.5% YoY), $3.35B in net income, and $5.77B in free cash flow against $76.45B in total assets and $17.17B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $103.86 (-0.36%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 9.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510056
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D-
Cash (12)Whales (10)SEC (10)Macro (7)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target
$146 Bull$103 Base$81 Bear
📬 FREE UAL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UAL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY UAL SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (30% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 9.8% FCF Margin ($5.77B FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (50.8) create a -13 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
48
Grade D$103.23-5.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
51
Grade C-$97.77+7.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
53
Grade C-$104.71-0.4% Next Q
Current
56
Grade D+$104.24-0.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (48) → D+ (56)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the UAL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, UAL faces multiple-compression risk if 10.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($107.32) or 200D SMA ($107.96) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($103.30) toward Bear Floor ($80.57).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UAL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “UAL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±8.7% Swing Band

±$9.07 Expected Swing
$95.17 (-8.7%)Spot $104.24$113.31 (+8.7%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

UAL Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 56/100

Trailing EPS: $10.32 • YoY Revenue Growth: 3.5%

Model Bullish Setup (56/100)Model Risk Weight (44/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$59.07B$3.35B$5.77B52%
FY 20242024-12-31$57.06B$3.15B$6.88B52%
FY 20232023-12-31$53.72B$2.62B$4.49B52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring UAL)

  • ✓Walkthrough of UAL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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UAL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +15.73%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $103.4H $105.2L $103.4C $104.2VOL 4.54M
RES: $126.8SUP: $91.71SMA50: $107.3SMA200: $108.0
$142.3$127.7$113.1$98.43$83.80RES $126.8SUP $91.71$104.22026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

UAL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-0.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UAL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UAL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UAL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UAL)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #422 of 1011 ⚔️ RYAAY vs UAL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (UAL vs. RYAAY, DAL, LUV, FDXF)

Industry: Air Freight/Delivery Services (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL) ranks #422 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #63 by equity capitalization ($34.18B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, UAL leads on earnings valuation at 10.2x trailing P/E, while DAL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.2% ROIC and — gross margin. DAL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with UAL at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
UAL ACTIVE
United Airlines Holdings Inc.
D+ 56/100 10.2x — 14.0% -0.92% $34.18B Benchmark Subject
RYAAY
Ryanair Holdings plc
D+ 54/100 32.8x — 9.9% +0.62% $28.10B /ryaay-vs-ual →
DAL
Delta Air Lines Inc.
B- 70/100 10.7x — 16.2% -1.82% $53.71B /dal-vs-ual →
LUV
Southwest Airlines Company
D+ 56/100 48.5x — 3.2% -2.86% $21.39B /luv-vs-ual →
FDXF
FedEx Freight Holding Company Inc.
D 45/100 25.0x — 8.3% +14.91% $16.40B /fdxf-vs-ual →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000100517

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL) reported GAAP revenue of $59.07B (+3.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $57.06B , and +10.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $3.35B, operating cash flow of $8.43B, and free cash flow of $5.77B (-16.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, UAL closed FY2025 with $76.45B in total assets against $17.17B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.57, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $59.07B $3.35B $8.43B $5.77B $76.45B $17.17B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $57.06B $3.15B $9.45B $6.88B $74.08B $21.68B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $53.72B $2.62B $6.91B $4.49B $64.46B $15.08B

3. UAL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is UAL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, United Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: UAL) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $104.24 (-0.92% 1D, market cap $34.18B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, UAL ranks #422 in composite RQD confidence.

How does UAL compare to RYAAY and DAL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Air Freight/Delivery Services), UAL carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 14.0%. By comparison, RYAAY (Ryanair Holdings plc) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $28.10B) and DAL (Delta Air Lines Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 10.7x, ROIC 16.2%, cap $53.71B). Among the 5-stock peer group, UAL leads on earnings multiple (10.2x) while DAL leads on capital efficiency (16.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UAL?

Per UAL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000100517), United Airlines Holdings Inc. generated $59.07B in revenue (+3.5% YoY), $3.35B in net income, and $5.77B in free cash flow against $76.45B in total assets and $17.17B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is UAL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

UAL last traded at $104.24 (-0.92% on volume of 4,951,946 shares), positioning the stock -2.87% below its 50-day simple moving average ($107.32) and -3.45% below its 200-day simple moving average ($107.96). Across its 52-week range of $84.64 to $138.77, UAL sits at the 36.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.7% ($95.17 to $113.31).

UAL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is UAL's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is UAL stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±8.7% event move for UAL, spanning a range between $95.17 and $113.31.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 56/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

UAL — United Airlines Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:12:08Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

The Roarable RQD Score is 56, graded D+, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." Across its five pillars, the Fundamental Cash Engine scores 12 of 20 (ROIC 14%; FCF yield 16.89%), suggesting the business generates meaningful cash returns relative to its capital base and market value, though not at a level that offsets weakness elsewhere. Whale 13F Flow scores 10 of 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), a moderate reading. Insider Conviction scores 17 of 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), the strongest pillar in the rating. Macro Regime Fit scores 7 of 20 (Beta 0.9; sector sensitivity), indicating limited alignment with the current regime as characterized by the rating. Forensic Balance Sheet scores 10 of 20 (Altman Z 1.57; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 1.12), reflecting a balance sheet the rating treats as a meaningful concern.

For a prospective investor, the upside drivers in the data are the high FCF yield and the insider cluster flow. The valuation tradeoff is that the stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 10.2 and EV/EBITDA of 6.5 in the source data, which may look inexpensive, but the rating weighs balance-sheet forensics and macro fit more heavily than headline valuation. The Altman Z of 1.57 and Debt/Equity of 1.12 are the points the rating treats as the most constraining. This is an analytical reading of the source data, not personalized financial advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
105.21$34.18B10.29.56.510.320%0.9$84.64 - $138.7714%

Business

United Airlines Holdings Inc. is listed on NASDAQ under the ticker UAL and is classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Air Freight/Delivery Services industry per the company profile. The profile lists a market capitalization of $34.2B. The source data does not describe its products, customer base, or specific revenue-generating model beyond the sector and industry classification.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$59070.0M$4713.0M$3353.0MN/A$5772.9M$5942.0M$17170.0M
FY 2024$57063.0M$5096.0M$3149.0MN/A$6877.2M$8769.0M$21680.0M
FY 2023$53717.0M$4211.0M$2618.0MN/A$4493.7MN/A$15083.7M

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose across the three reported periods while operating income declined from FY 2024 to FY 2025. Per the market data, the operating margin is 8%, the net margin is 5.7%, and the ROIC is 14%. The source data provides an Altman Z-Score of 1.57, a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.12 within the Roarable RQD rating pillars. Debt declined from $21680.0M in FY 2024 to $17170.0M in FY 2025, while reported cash also declined over the same period.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Five headlines are provided, all related to UAL. The highest-impact item is labeled CATALYST (GREEN) and reports that the stock dropped despite market gains. A CNBC headline (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE) reports that United slashed its 2026 profit outlook on fuel prices while travelers continue booking despite higher fares. Other items (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE) cover a Motley Fool buying guide, a Yahoo Finance note on the stock trading up, a Trefis explainer, and a Yahoo! Finance quote page. The source data does not provide the underlying detail of these reports beyond the headlines and summaries. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore not available in source data. The only sector-level context is the Consumer Discretionary classification and the Air Freight/Delivery Services industry. The CNBC headline's reference to fuel prices is the one cost-side ripple mentioned in the source data; the source does not quantify its effect.

Open Questions

  • Which specific fuel-price and fare dynamics underlie the 2026 profit outlook revision, and by how much is the outlook reduced? The source provides only the headline.
  • Why does the Altman Z of 1.57 and Debt/Equity of 1.12 persist alongside a 14% ROIC, and how is debt being serviced given the $17170.0M figure?
  • What drove the decline in operating income from $5096.0M in FY 2024 to $4713.0M in FY 2025 despite revenue growth?
  • Who are the specific 13F, Form 4, and Congressional filers behind the insider and whale pillar scores, given that holders data is unavailable?
  • Why is EPS reported as N/A across all periods when the market data lists EPS (TTM) of 10.32?

UAL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to UAL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

UAL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $104.24?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON UAL 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on UAL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $113.63 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is UAL (D+ • RQD 56/100) a Buy at $105.21?

Welcome to the UAL (United Airlines Holdings Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 56/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Air Freight/Delivery Services. Bulls point to capital efficiency (14.0% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $82.06 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $105.21

Pump the brakes on UAL — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on UAL, but look at what you are paying: 10.2x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless United Airlines Holdings Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $126.25 (+20.0%)
Spot @ $105.21

UAL cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on UAL, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Air Freight/Delivery Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $105.21 (52-wk range $84.64 - $138.77), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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