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Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$302.02 +0.39% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $302.96

Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 78/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (57.0% gross margin, 18% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $274.90B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TXN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TXN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Texas Instruments Incorporated (NASDAQ: TXN) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 78/100 at a spot price of $302.02 (+0.39% 1D, market cap $274.90B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 19/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, TXN ranks #16 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TXN compare to AMAT and ARM in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Semiconductors), TXN carries a Roarable B+ (78/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 57.2x, gross margin of 57.0%, and ROIC of 17.9%. By comparison, AMAT (Applied Materials Inc.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 47.8x, ROIC 24.5%, cap $309.57B) and ARM (Arm Holdings plc) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.7%, cap $219.16B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AMAT leads on earnings multiple (47.8x) while AMAT leads on capital efficiency (24.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TXN?
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Per TXN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000097476), Texas Instruments Incorporated generated $17.68B in revenue (+13.0% YoY), $5.00B in net income, and $2.60B in free cash flow against $34.59B in total assets and $13.55B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (57.0% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 57x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $302.96 (+0.31%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.04% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 14.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 78/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 10% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.6% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+
025507510078
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk B+
Cash (16)Whales (19)SEC (18)Macro (13)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+9% Base Target
$388 Bull$329 Base$248 Bear
📬 FREE TXN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TXN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (78/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TXN SCORES 78/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+19/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.9% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 12.94 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (-0.04% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 8 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
70
Grade B$280.65+1.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
73
Grade B$284.65+8.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
75
Grade B+$309.83-2.5% Next Q
Current
78
Grade B+$302.02+7.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (70) → B+ (78)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TXN Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 78/100 (B+) score, TXN faces multiple-compression risk if 57.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 57x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (-0.04% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 54.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($278.53) or 200D SMA ($261.44) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($329.20) toward Bear Floor ($247.66).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TXN• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TXN Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 78%NO 22%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your TXN Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $302.02: 33.1 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $247.66
$8,200
$-1,800 (-18.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $329.20
$10,900
+$900 (+9.0%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $388.46
$12,862
+$2,862 (+28.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (43 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 32● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskOUTPERFORM$34274%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadSTRONG BUY$36569%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$28858%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TXN Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
TXN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.52%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $311.4H $311.4L $300.8C $302.0VOL 13.00M
RES: $314.8SUP: $222.8SMA50: $278.5SMA200: $261.4
$343.9$303.1$262.3$221.5$180.7RES $314.8SUP $222.8$302.02026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TXN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TXN Butterfly Map → + Track TXN →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
40.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +13.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TXN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →
TXN → F Confirmed Filing
Texas Instruments analog battery-management systems (BMS), 48V zonal body controllers, and radar/infotainment chips double semiconductor content per vehicle across Ford hybrid, EV, and Pro commercial fleets.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TXN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TXN)

Technology Rank #16 of 715 ⚔️ AMAT vs TXN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (TXN vs. AMAT, ARM, INTC, ADI)

Industry: Semiconductors (95 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) ranks #16 by composite RQD confidence (78/100, grade B+) and #20 by equity capitalization ($274.90B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AMAT leads on earnings valuation at 47.8x trailing P/E, while AMAT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.5% ROIC and 48.7% gross margin. TXN currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 78/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TXN ACTIVE
Texas Instruments Incorporated
B+ 78/100 57.2x 57.0% 17.9% +0.39% $274.90B Benchmark Subject
AMAT
Applied Materials Inc.
C 64/100 47.8x 48.7% 24.5% -3.99% $309.57B /amat-vs-txn →
ARM
Arm Holdings plc
D+ 57/100 — 96.0% 3.7% -4.46% $219.16B /arm-vs-txn →
INTC
Intel Corporation
E 34/100 — 34.8% -1.2% -8.80% $347.55B /intc-vs-txn →
ADI
Analog Devices Inc.
C+ 69/100 92.6x 61.5% 6.1% -1.02% $202.12B /adi-vs-txn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000097476 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) reported GAAP revenue of $17.68B (+13.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $15.64B , and +0.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $5.00B, operating cash flow of $7.15B, and free cash flow of $2.60B (+73.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, TXN closed FY2025 with $34.59B in total assets against $13.55B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 12.94, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $17.68B $5.00B $7.15B $2.60B $34.59B $13.55B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $15.64B $4.80B $6.32B $1.50B $35.51B $12.85B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $17.52B $6.51B $6.42B $5.63B $157.28B $36.80B

3. TXN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TXN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Texas Instruments Incorporated (NASDAQ: TXN) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 78/100 at a spot price of $302.02 (+0.39% 1D, market cap $274.90B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 19/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, TXN ranks #16 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TXN compare to AMAT and ARM in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Semiconductors), TXN carries a Roarable B+ (78/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 57.2x, gross margin of 57.0%, and ROIC of 17.9%. By comparison, AMAT (Applied Materials Inc.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 47.8x, ROIC 24.5%, cap $309.57B) and ARM (Arm Holdings plc) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.7%, cap $219.16B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AMAT leads on earnings multiple (47.8x) while AMAT leads on capital efficiency (24.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TXN?

Per TXN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000097476), Texas Instruments Incorporated generated $17.68B in revenue (+13.0% YoY), $5.00B in net income, and $2.60B in free cash flow against $34.59B in total assets and $13.55B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (57.0% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 57x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TXN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TXN last traded at $302.02 (+0.39% on volume of 11,078,424 shares), positioning the stock +8.43% above its 50-day simple moving average ($278.53) and +15.52% above its 200-day simple moving average ($261.44). Across its 52-week range of $152.73 to $334.03, TXN sits at the 82.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.9% ($281.18 to $322.86).

Direct Sub-Reports: TXN RQD Cockpit TXN 12M Forecast TXN Earnings & Move TXN Dividends & DRIP TXN Insiders & 13F TXN Whale Options TXN Profit Sankey TXN News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 78/100 (B+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TXN — Texas Instruments Incorporated: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 78/100, corresponding to a B+ letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $302.02 (+0.39% 1D, market capitalization $274.90B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (16/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 17.9%, gross margin of 57.0%, operating margin of 34.1%, and free cash flow yield of 0.91%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (19/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 1.20x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 12.94, Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.83x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Texas Instruments Incorporated is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Technology sector, Semiconductors industry. And the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the company sells analog semiconductors, including battery-management systems, zonal body controllers, and radar and infotainment chips for the automotive end-market. Approximately 34% of consolidated revenue is in the automotive end-market per the FY2024 Form 10-K.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) reported $17.68B in annual revenue (up from $15.64B in FY2024, +13.0% YoY) and $5.00B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($17.52B revenue, $6.51B net income) through FY2025, TXN scaled operating cash flow to $7.15B and free cash flow to $2.60B, backed by $34.59B in total assets against $13.55B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B+ • RQD 78/100): Strong cash generator (57.0% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 16/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 19/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $152.73 – $334.03 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Priced at 57x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Investors must weigh 57.2x trailing P/E and 30.0x EV/EBITDA against 34.1% operating margins and a 1.20x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The upstream-to-downstream dependency runs from TXN analog chips into Ford hybrid, EV, and commercial fleet platforms. The stated mechanism is that content per vehicle roughly doubles, which is an upside driver if vehicle electrification proceeds. The 2nd-order bottleneck to watch is the capacity and margin constraint: CapEx on the Sherman and Richardson, Texas 300mm fabs weighs on free-cash-flow conversion until CHIPS Act investment tax credits flow through. A second watch item is the competing explanation of OEM inventory destocking and slower pure-BEV adoption at Ford, which could slow analog restocking velocity.

  • Key Question #1: Can TXN sustain or expand its 34.1% operating margin and 17.9% ROIC against Semiconductors peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $17.68B and free cash flow of $2.60B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $13.55B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TXN's 48.0x forward P/E multiple to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.20x)?

TXN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TXN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TXN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $302.02?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TXN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TXN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $382.07 (+27.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the RQD rating, institutional 13F flow scores a maximum 20 of 20 alongside an 18 of 20 forensic balance sheet, with ROIC of 17.9%.

Per the RQD rating, institutional 13F flow scores a maximum 20 of 20 alongside an 18 of 20 forensic balance sheet, with ROIC of 17.9%.. When you look under the hood at TXN, Fundamental Cash Engine is 16/20 with 57.0% gross margins and 17.9% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (19/20) has been quietly accumulating below $334.03. My 12M target is $382.07.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Shorting a 19/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $300.84 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Technology.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $240.67 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $300.84

Per the market data, FCF yield is only 0.91% against a P/E (TTM) of 57.2, leaving little cash return to offset the valuation.

Careful chasing TXN at $300.84. Per the market data, FCF yield is only 0.91% against a P/E (TTM) of 57.2, leaving little cash return to offset the valuation.. Gross margin is 57.0%, but operating margin is 34.1%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $240.67 on multiple compression.

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