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Stock Ratings / Consumer Staples / TR / earnings
JJSF (75) JBSS (65) MICC (70) MAMA (52) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Tootsie Roll Industries Inc. (TR) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±5.7% Move

$38.21 +3.66% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.39

Tootsie Roll Industries Inc. (TR) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.77B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TR Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Tootsie Roll Industries Inc. (NYSE: TR) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $38.21 (+3.66% 1D, market cap $2.77B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, TR ranks #56 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TR compare to JJSF and JBSS in the Consumer Staples sector?
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Within the Consumer Staples sector (Specialty Foods), TR carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 27.4x, gross margin of 35.3%, and ROIC of 9.8%. By comparison, JJSF (J & J Snack Foods Corp.) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 23.9x, ROIC 7.9%, cap $1.60B) and JBSS (John B. Sanfilippo & Son Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 10.7x, ROIC 19.2%, cap $630.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, JBSS leads on earnings multiple (10.7x) while JBSS leads on capital efficiency (19.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TR?
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Per TR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000098677), Tootsie Roll Industries Inc. generated $732.5M in revenue (+1.3% YoY), $100.1M in net income, and $96.4M in free cash flow against $1.25B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.39 (+0.47%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 13.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510056
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C
Cash (11)Whales (6)SEC (15)Macro (10)CEO (14)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target
$47 Bull$38 Base$30 Bear
📬 FREE TR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TR SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
48
Grade D$37.65-2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
51
Grade C-$36.90-6.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
53
Grade C-$34.54+10.6% Next Q
Current
56
Grade D+$38.21-0.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (48) → D+ (56)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TR Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, TR faces multiple-compression risk if 27.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 32.8% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($37.93) or 200D SMA ($39.51) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($37.87) toward Bear Floor ($29.54).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±5.7% Swing Band

±$2.18 Expected Swing
$36.03 (-5.7%)Spot $38.21$40.39 (+5.7%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

TR Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 56/100

Trailing EPS: $1.33 • YoY Revenue Growth: 1.3%

Model Bullish Setup (56/100)Model Risk Weight (44/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$732.5M$100.1M$96.4M35.3%
FY 20242024-12-31$723.2M$86.8M$120.9M35%
FY 20232023-12-31$769.4M$91.9M$94.6M35.3%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TR)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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TR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.61%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $36.55H $38.21L $36.55C $38.21VOL 198.6K
RES: $38.62SUP: $33.65SMA50: $37.93SMA200: $39.51
$44.09$41.34$38.60$35.85$33.10RES $38.62SUP $33.65$38.212026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TR Butterfly Map → + Track TR →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
20.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TR)

Consumer Staples Rank #56 of 147 ⚔️ JJSF vs TR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (TR vs. JJSF, JBSS, MICC, MAMA)

Industry: Specialty Foods (9 Tracked Issuers)

Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tootsie Roll Industries Inc. (TR) ranks #56 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #53 by equity capitalization ($2.77B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, JBSS leads on earnings valuation at 10.7x trailing P/E, while JBSS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.2% ROIC and 18.0% gross margin. JJSF currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with TR at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TR ACTIVE
Tootsie Roll Industries Inc.
D+ 56/100 27.4x 35.3% 9.8% +3.66% $2.77B Benchmark Subject
JJSF
J & J Snack Foods Corp.
B 75/100 23.9x 29.7% 7.9% +4.44% $1.60B /jjsf-vs-tr →
JBSS
John B. Sanfilippo & Son Inc.
C 65/100 10.7x 18.0% 19.2% -0.06% $630.3M /jbss-vs-tr →
MICC
The Magnum Ice Cream Company N.V.
B- 70/100 32.8x — 9.9% +1.96% $12.17B /micc-vs-tr →
MAMA
Mama's Creations Inc.
D+ 52/100 114.4x 25.1% 17.2% +1.50% $597.8M /mama-vs-tr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000098677 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Tootsie Roll Industries Inc. (TR) reported GAAP revenue of $732.5M (+1.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $723.2M , and -4.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $100.1M, operating cash flow of $130.6M, and free cash flow of $96.4M (-20.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, TR closed FY2025 with $1.25B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $732.5M $100.1M $130.6M $96.4M $1.25B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $723.2M $86.8M $138.9M $120.9M $1.15B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $769.4M $91.9M $94.6M $94.6M — —

3. TR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Tootsie Roll Industries Inc. (NYSE: TR) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $38.21 (+3.66% 1D, market cap $2.77B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, TR ranks #56 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TR compare to JJSF and JBSS in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Specialty Foods), TR carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 27.4x, gross margin of 35.3%, and ROIC of 9.8%. By comparison, JJSF (J & J Snack Foods Corp.) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 23.9x, ROIC 7.9%, cap $1.60B) and JBSS (John B. Sanfilippo & Son Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 10.7x, ROIC 19.2%, cap $630.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, JBSS leads on earnings multiple (10.7x) while JBSS leads on capital efficiency (19.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TR?

Per TR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000098677), Tootsie Roll Industries Inc. generated $732.5M in revenue (+1.3% YoY), $100.1M in net income, and $96.4M in free cash flow against $1.25B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TR last traded at $38.21 (+3.66% on volume of 166,221 shares), positioning the stock +0.74% above its 50-day simple moving average ($37.93) and -3.29% below its 200-day simple moving average ($39.51). Across its 52-week range of $33.52 to $45.06, TR sits at the 40.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.7% ($36.03 to $40.39).

Direct Sub-Reports: TR RQD Cockpit TR 12M Forecast TR Earnings & Move TR Dividends & DRIP TR Insiders & 13F TR Whale Options TR Profit Sankey TR News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 56/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TR — Tootsie Roll Industries Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Tootsie Roll Industries Inc. (TR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 56/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $38.21 (+3.66% 1D, market capitalization $2.77B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.8%, gross margin of 35.3%, operating margin of 13.8%, and free cash flow yield of 3.51%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (14/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Tootsie Roll Industries Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Staples sector, Specialty Foods industry. The company reports annual revenue of $732.5M for FY 2025.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Tootsie Roll Industries Inc. (TR) reported $732.5M in annual revenue (up from $723.2M in FY2024, +1.3% YoY) and $100.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($769.4M revenue, $91.9M net income) through FY2025, TR scaled operating cash flow to $130.6M and free cash flow to $96.4M, backed by $1.25B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 56/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $33.52 – $45.06 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 27.4x trailing P/E and 20.1x EV/EBITDA against 13.8% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Specialty Foods (Consumer Staples), TR carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 35.3%.

  • Key Question #1: Can TR sustain or expand its 13.8% operating margin and 9.8% ROIC against Specialty Foods peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $732.5M and free cash flow of $96.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TR's 25.5x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Staples capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Tootsie Roll Industries Inc. (TR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $38.21?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $44.97 (+22.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Balance sheet strength (Altman Z 2.5, Piotroski F 7/9, Debt/Equity 0.5) and a 15/20 forensic score support the equity base.

Picked up a starter position in TR in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $36.86. Balance sheet strength (Altman Z 2.5, Piotroski F 7/9, Debt/Equity 0.5) and a 15/20 forensic score support the equity base.. Trading inside a $33.52–$45.06 52-week range with 3.51% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Specialty Foods multiples expand this quarter.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@SkepticalCFA Fair point on 27.4x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Specialty Foods. If gross margin (35.3%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $31.70 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $36.86

A 27.4x trailing P/E against a 3.51% FCF yield and a 9.8% ROIC leaves limited margin for error, with weak institutional flow (6/20).

Fading this rally in TR at $36.86. A 27.4x trailing P/E against a 3.51% FCF yield and a 9.8% ROIC leaves limited margin for error, with weak institutional flow (6/20).. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $36.86 (52-wk range $33.52–$45.06), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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