TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$65.99 -1.68% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $65.67

TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.33B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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β–Ό

As of 2026-11-02, TransMedics Group Inc. (NASDAQ: TMDX) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $65.99 (-1.68% 1D, market cap $2.33B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, TMDX ranks #160 in composite RQD confidence.

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πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TMDX compare to AXGN and CNMD in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus), TMDX carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.2x, gross margin of 59.9%, and ROIC of 18.1%. By comparison, AXGN (Axogen Inc.) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.6%, cap $2.96B) and CNMD (CONMED Corporation) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 28.9x, ROIC 7.8%, cap $1.36B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TMDX leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while TMDX leads on capital efficiency (18.1% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TMDX?
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Per TMDX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001756262), TransMedics Group Inc. generated $605.5M in revenue (+37.1% YoY), $190.3M in net income, and $133.6M in free cash flow against $1.07B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (60% profit margin)β€”profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $65.67 (-0.49%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) β€’ 22.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 54.3% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C
025507510062
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- Β· Rk C
Cash (15)Whales (4)SEC (16)Macro (10)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target
$164 Bull$67 Base$52 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE TMDX RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TMDX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±9.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY TMDX SCORES 62/100 (C) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.50 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 8/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
70
Grade B$78.17-8.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
67
Grade B-$71.60-1.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
65
Grade C+$70.63-6.6% Next Q
Current
62
Grade C$65.99+0.7% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: B (70) β†’ C (62)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TMDX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, TMDX faces multiple-compression risk if 12.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 57.4% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($81.10) or 200D SMA ($94.10) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($67.18) toward Bear Floor ($52.40).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TMDXβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œTMDX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
SEC FORM 4 Γ— 13F HEDGE FUNDS Γ— CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

TMDX Smart-Money Thermometer: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales β†’
β–² Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)β–Ό Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (TMDX)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on TMDX. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TMDX Tape Review)

  • βœ“Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • βœ“Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • βœ“Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TMDX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -32.03%β–Ό SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-02O $66.90H $67.12L $65.99C $65.99VOL 991.4K
RES: $111.6SUP: $67.09SMA50: $81.10SMA200: $94.10
$126.9$108.8$90.69$72.58$54.48RES $111.6SUP $67.09$65.992026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TMDX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
2.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +37.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TMDX today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TMDX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TMDX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TMDX)

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (TMDX vs. AXGN, CNMD, ITGR, LIVN)

Industry: Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus (26 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) ranks #160 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #233 by equity capitalization ($2.33B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TMDX leads on earnings valuation at 12.2x trailing P/E, while TMDX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.1% ROIC and 59.9% gross margin. LIVN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with TMDX at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TMDX ACTIVE
TransMedics Group Inc.
C 62/100 12.2x 59.9% 18.1% -1.68% $2.33B Benchmark Subject
AXGN
Axogen Inc.
D+ 54/100 β€” 74.3% -2.6% -0.52% $2.96B /axgn-vs-tmdx β†’
CNMD
CONMED Corporation
C 65/100 28.9x 54.6% 7.8% -3.13% $1.36B /cnmd-vs-tmdx β†’
ITGR
Integer Holdings Corporation
C+ 67/100 41.8x 27.0% 6.0% +0.06% $4.30B /itgr-vs-tmdx β†’
LIVN
LivaNova PLC
C+ 68/100 β€” 67.7% 17.3% -2.81% $4.48B /livn-vs-tmdx β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001756262

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) reported GAAP revenue of $605.5M (+37.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $441.5M , and +150.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $190.3M, operating cash flow of $192.8M, and free cash flow of $133.6M (+265.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, TMDX closed FY2025 with $1.07B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.50, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $605.5M $190.3M $192.8M $133.6M $1.07B β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $441.5M $35.5M $48.8M -$80.9M $804.1M β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $241.6M -$25.0M -$13.0M -$13.0M β€” β€”

3. TMDX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TMDX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, TransMedics Group Inc. (NASDAQ: TMDX) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $65.99 (-1.68% 1D, market cap $2.33B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, TMDX ranks #160 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TMDX compare to AXGN and CNMD in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus), TMDX carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.2x, gross margin of 59.9%, and ROIC of 18.1%. By comparison, AXGN (Axogen Inc.) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.6%, cap $2.96B) and CNMD (CONMED Corporation) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 28.9x, ROIC 7.8%, cap $1.36B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TMDX leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while TMDX leads on capital efficiency (18.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TMDX?

Per TMDX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001756262), TransMedics Group Inc. generated $605.5M in revenue (+37.1% YoY), $190.3M in net income, and $133.6M in free cash flow against $1.07B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (60% profit margin)β€”profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TMDX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TMDX last traded at $65.99 (-1.68% on volume of 900,114 shares), positioning the stock -18.63% below its 50-day simple moving average ($81.10) and -29.87% below its 200-day simple moving average ($94.10). Across its 52-week range of $60.10 to $156.00, TMDX sits at the 6.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 32.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±9.8% ($59.52 to $72.46).

TMDX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

Are TMDX insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies TMDX leadership and institutional positioning as: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 62/100 (C) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

TMDX β€” TransMedics Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:26:03Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, TMDX scores 62 out of 100, grade C, labeled "Roarable Hold β€” Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 15 of 20 (ROIC 18.1%; FCF yield 5.74%); Whale 13F Flow at 4 of 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction at 17 of 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit at 10 of 20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet at 16 of 20 (Altman Z 3.5; Piotroski F 8/9; Debt/Equity 0.5).

For a prospective investor, the pillar mix is uneven. The strongest signals are the balance sheet and insider flow, while institutional accumulation registers as weak at 4 of 20. The cash-engine score is moderate, supported by the reported ROIC and FCF yield, and the macro pillar is middling given a Beta of 1.0. The valuation tradeoff is that the stock's trailing and forward multiples sit below its EV/EBITDA level, so upside depends on sustaining the reported earnings and cash-flow improvement. The 52-week range ($60.1 – $156) indicates the stock has traded far above its current price, which underscores volatility and sentiment sensitivity. This is an educational reading of the rating, not personalized advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
$67.12$2.33B12.210.214.65.490%1.0$60.1 - $15618.1%

Business

Per the Profile section, TransMedics Group Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus industry, with a market capitalization of $2.3B. The source data does not describe its specific products, customers, or revenue model beyond the sector and industry classification. The reported margins (gross 59.9%, operating 17.9%, net 31.4%) are per the Market Data section.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts feed, six items are tagged to TMDX, all flagged YELLOW with the MARKET WIRE impact label: a Yahoo Finance piece describing the stock as undervalued on current earnings; a Simply Wall St stock analysis; a GuruFocus report citing a 4.0% move and a GF Score of 72/100; a MarketBeat report referencing an average price target of $121.10; a Stock Titan notice that a 4:30 p.m. ET call will accompany the Q3 results on Nov. 5; and a Yahoo Finance stock forecast piece. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals. Risk watch items drawn from the feed are the wide 52-week range and the institutional-flow weakness in the RQD rating. The Q3 earnings call is the nearest identified catalyst.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore not available in source data. The only sector context available is the Health Care classification and the Beta of 1.0. An investor should note that any ripple analysis would require supply-chain and correlation data not present in this dossier.

Open Questions

  • What are the FY 2025 cash, debt, and EPS balances that underpin the reported Altman Z-Score and Debt/Equity figures?
  • What is the composition of the FY 2025 net income of $190.3M, which exceeds operating income of $108.6M?
  • Which specific institutional holders and insider transactions drive the RQD whale and insider pillar scores?
  • What is the basis for the $121.10 average price target cited in the news feed, and how many analysts contribute to it?
  • What products, customers, and supply-chain relationships generate the reported revenue, given that the supply-chain graph is empty?

TMDX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to TMDX Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TMDX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $65.99?

πŸ‚ 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TMDX 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TMDX:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk βš–οΈ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $72.49 (+8.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is TMDX (C β€’ RQD 62/100) a Buy at $67.12?

Welcome to the TMDX (TransMedics Group Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 62/100 (Roarable Hold β€” Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus. Bulls point to capital efficiency (18.1% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $52.35 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $67.12

Pump the brakes on TMDX β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TMDX, but look at what you are paying: 12.2x trailing P/E with 59.9% gross margins. Unless TransMedics Group Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $80.54 (+20.0%)
Spot @ $67.12

TMDX cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TMDX, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $67.12 (52-wk range $60.10 - $156.00), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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