Yahoo Finance report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why TKR Stock dropped -3.42% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Timken Company (TKR) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is TKR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Timken Company (NYSE: TKR) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $110.90 (-3.42% 1D, market cap $7.96B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, TKR ranks #152 in composite RQD confidence.
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does TKR compare to VMI and NPO in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Metal Fabrications), TKR carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 27.6x, gross margin of 30.4%, and ROIC of 9.1%. By comparison, VMI (Valmont Industries Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 23.6x, ROIC 14.7%, cap $8.28B) and NPO (Enpro Inc.) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 148.7x, ROIC 6.1%, cap $6.02B). Among the 5-stock peer group, VMI leads on earnings multiple (23.6x) while WTS leads on capital efficiency (19.5% ROIC).
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TKR?
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Per TKR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000098362), Timken Company generated $4.58B in revenue (+0.2% YoY), $288.4M in net income, and $348.1M in free cash flow against $6.68B in total assets and $1.88B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (30% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 7.6% FCF Margin ($348.1M FCF) & 30.4% Gross Margin
Altman Z-Score 3.31 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9
Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (50.4) create a -14 pt regime headwind
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TKR Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, TKR faces multiple-compression risk if 27.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 27.9% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($116.80) or 200D SMA ($117.44) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($110.90) toward Bear Floor ($86.50).
Why TKR Stock dropped -3.42% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Timken Company (TKR) dropped -3.42% to $110.90, trading at 51% of its 52-week range ($73.62 – $146.37). Stretched risk/reward at 28x P/E (9% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 51% of its 52-week range ($73.62 – $146.37) with RSI-14 at 50.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.6% around $110.90 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 30.4% gross margin and $348.1M annual free cash flow.
ChartMill report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Simply Wall St report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Quiver Quantitative report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Rockwell Automation (ROK) possesses the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
Timken (TKR) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TKR)
- ✓Walkthrough of TKR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
TKR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +0.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TKR today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TKR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TKR)
1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (TKR vs. VMI, NPO, WTS, CR)
Industry: Metal Fabrications (47 Tracked Issuers)Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Timken Company (TKR) ranks #152 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #114 by equity capitalization ($7.96B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VMI leads on earnings valuation at 23.6x trailing P/E, while WTS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.5% ROIC and 49.5% gross margin. WTS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with TKR at 58/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TKR
ACTIVE
Timken Company | D+ | 58/100 | 27.6x | 30.4% | 9.1% | -3.42% | $7.96B | Benchmark Subject |
| VMI Valmont Industries Inc. | C- | 61/100 | 23.6x | 30.2% | 14.7% | -2.46% | $8.28B | /vmi-vs-tkr → |
| NPO Enpro Inc. | D+ | 53/100 | 148.7x | 42.6% | 6.1% | -4.54% | $6.02B | /npo-vs-tkr → |
| WTS Watts Water Technologies Inc. | C+ | 68/100 | 34.4x | 49.5% | 19.5% | -0.94% | $11.71B | /wts-vs-tkr → |
| CR Crane Company | C+ | 67/100 | 32.4x | 42.2% | 12.4% | -3.78% | $11.90B | /cr-vs-tkr → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000098362In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Timken Company (TKR) reported GAAP revenue of $4.58B (+0.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.57B , and -3.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $288.4M, operating cash flow of $554.3M, and free cash flow of $348.1M (+29.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, TKR closed FY2025 with $6.68B in total assets against $1.88B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.31, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $4.58B | $288.4M | $554.3M | $348.1M | $6.68B | $1.88B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $4.57B | $352.7M | $475.7M | $269.9M | $6.41B | $2.05B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $4.77B | $394.1M | $545.2M | $330.6M | $5.72B | $1.34B |
3. TKR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs TKR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-02, Timken Company (NYSE: TKR) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $110.90 (-3.42% 1D, market cap $7.96B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, TKR ranks #152 in composite RQD confidence.
How does TKR compare to VMI and NPO in the Industrials sector?
Within the Industrials sector (Metal Fabrications), TKR carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 27.6x, gross margin of 30.4%, and ROIC of 9.1%. By comparison, VMI (Valmont Industries Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 23.6x, ROIC 14.7%, cap $8.28B) and NPO (Enpro Inc.) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 148.7x, ROIC 6.1%, cap $6.02B). Among the 5-stock peer group, VMI leads on earnings multiple (23.6x) while WTS leads on capital efficiency (19.5% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TKR?
Per TKR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000098362), Timken Company generated $4.58B in revenue (+0.2% YoY), $288.4M in net income, and $348.1M in free cash flow against $6.68B in total assets and $1.88B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (30% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is TKR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
TKR last traded at $110.90 (-3.42% on volume of 875,424 shares), positioning the stock -5.05% below its 50-day simple moving average ($116.80) and -5.57% below its 200-day simple moving average ($117.44). Across its 52-week range of $73.62 to $146.37, TKR sits at the 51.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.6% ($104.69 to $117.11).
TKR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is TKR stock moving today?
Why TKR Stock dropped -3.42% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 28x P/E (9% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
TKR — Timken Company: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Per the Roarable RQD rating, TKR scores 58 out of 100, graded D+, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are:
- Fundamental Cash Engine: 15 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 9.1% and an FCF yield of 4.37%. Per the market data, the operating margin is 11.8% and net margin is 6.3%. Returns on capital and free-cash generation are present but not strong enough to earn a top-tier score.
- Whale / 13F Flow: 10 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar captures institutional accumulation and options positioning. The holders section contains no data, so the sub-score cannot be traced to specific filings in this dossier.
- Insider Conviction: 13 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. No insider transaction detail is present in the source data.
- Macro Regime Fit: 6 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this is the weakest pillar, reflecting a beta of 1.11 and sector sensitivity. For a prospective investor, a beta above 1.0 implies the stock has historically moved somewhat more than the market; the low score indicates the rating model views the current regime fit as unfavorable.
- Forensic Balance Sheet: 14 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects an Altman Z of 3.31, Piotroski F of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.59. These are reasonably sound readings, though not exceptional.
Investor implications. The rating's central tension is valuation versus fundamentals. Per the market data, the stock trades at a trailing P/E of 27.6 and forward P/E of 25.7, with EV/EBITDA of 13.2, while the RQD rating characterizes fundamentals as weak. Upside drivers would need to come from earnings growth that closes this gap; the source data does not show forward earnings estimates. The stock's 52-week range of $73.62 to $146.37 means the price of 114.83 sits in the upper portion of that band, so recent momentum has been substantial. The rating's "Trim" verdict reflects the view that valuation already embeds more optimism than the scored fundamentals support.
Snapshot
Business
Timken Company (TKR) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, Metal Fabrications industry, per the profile section. The source data does not describe its product lines, customer base, or revenue mix. Per the market data, gross margin is 30.4%, and per the financials, FY 2025 revenue was $4581.8M. The source data does not detail how the company generates its revenue beyond these figures.
Financial Trend
| Period | Revenue | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS | FCF | Cash | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $4581.8M | $540.6M | $288.4M | N/A | $348.1M | $364.4M | $1883.1M |
| FY 2024 | $4573.0M | $611.1M | $352.7M | N/A | $269.9M | $373.2M | $2049.7M |
| FY 2023 | $4769.0M | $657.1M | $394.1M | N/A | $330.6M | N/A | $1339.1M |
Per the SEC financials, revenue was broadly flat across FY 2024 and FY 2025 ($4573.0M to $4581.8M), while net income declined from $352.7M to $288.4M and operating income declined from $611.1M to $540.6M. Free cash flow rose from $269.9M to $348.1M over the same period, and reported debt fell from $2049.7M to $1883.1M. Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 3.31 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6 out of 9; per the market data, ROIC is 9.1% and Debt/Equity is 0.59.
Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis
Per the recent news section, six items were recorded:
- A Yahoo Finance report on post-Q2 earnings buy/sell/hold positioning (YELLOW).
- A ChartMill report describing the stock as a quality dividend payer with a sustainable payout (YELLOW).
- A TradingView report on a 12-month price target cut to $147, implying 27% upside (RED, RISK WATCH).
- A Yahoo Finance report on valuation following a 75% run (YELLOW).
- A MarketBeat report on an average target price of $145.00 (YELLOW).
- A Simply Wall St forecast and analyst predictions piece (YELLOW).
The RISK WATCH flag applies to the price-target-cut item. The headlines in this feed are generic aggregator summaries; the source data does not contain the underlying report text. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no proprietary signals or butterfly links were recorded.
Analyst View & Smart Money Ownership
Per the analyst data section, no analyst data is available in source data. Per the holders section, no 13F, insider Form 4, or Congressional trade data is available in source data. The news feed references an average target price of $145.00 and a cut price target of $147, but these are headline references only and are not verified against an analyst data feed here.
Open Questions
- What is the company's product mix, customer base, and end markets, given that the source data provides only sector classification?
- What are forward revenue and earnings estimates, given that no analyst data is present to support the forward P/E of 25.7?
- What drove the decline in net income and operating income in FY 2025 despite stable revenue and rising free cash flow?
- Who are the institutional holders and insiders, and what is their recent transaction activity?
- Which specific events are behind the recent price-target revisions referenced in the news feed?
TKR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Timken Company (TKR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Yahoo Finance report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
ChartMill report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Simply Wall St report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Quiver Quantitative report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TKR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $110.90?
🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is TKR (D+ • RQD 58/100) a Buy at $114.83?
Welcome to the TKR (Timken Company) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 58/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Metal Fabrications. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
Pump the brakes on TKR — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TKR, but look at what you are paying: 27.6x trailing P/E with 30.4% gross margins. Unless Timken Company expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
TKR cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TKR, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Metal Fabrications and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $114.83 (52-wk range $73.62 - $146.37), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.