Why TIC Stock dropped -3.27% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$10.05 -3.27% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.97

TIC Solutions Inc. (TIC) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.19B
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As of 2026-11-03, TIC Solutions Inc. (NYSE: TIC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $10.05 (-3.27% 1D, market cap $2.19B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TIC ranks #613 in composite RQD confidence.

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🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TIC compare to FLYW and PAYO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), TIC carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 29.4%, and ROIC of -0.4%. By comparison, FLYW (Flywire Corporation Voting) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.8%, cap $2.40B) and PAYO (Payoneer Global Inc.) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 33.0x, ROIC 34.1%, cap $2.42B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WU leads on earnings multiple (3.9x) while WU leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TIC?
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Per TIC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002032966), TIC Solutions Inc. generated $1.53B in revenue, -$87.1M in net income, and $61.3M in free cash flow against $4.40B in total assets and $1.59B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.97 (-0.78%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510047
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D
Cash (8)Whales (14)SEC (8)Macro (10)CEO (7)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5% Base Target
$13 Bull$10 Base$7 Bear
📬 FREE TIC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TIC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (47/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TIC SCORES 47/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (30% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.9% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (21% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 62% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 60.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 13 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
39
Grade E$9.12-1.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
42
Grade D$8.96+11.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
44
Grade D$10.01+0.4% Next Q
Current
47
Grade D$10.05-5.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (39) → D (47)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TIC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TIC currently carries a cautious 47/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($9.22) and Max Pain ($10.55) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $12.94.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TIC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TIC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why TIC Stock dropped -3.27% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

TIC Solutions Inc. (TIC) dropped -3.27% to $10.05, trading at 62% of its 52-week range ($6.36 – $12.32). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-0% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 62% of its 52-week range ($6.36 – $12.32) with RSI-14 at 60.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.9% around $10.05 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 29.4% gross margin and $61.3M annual free cash flow.
Live TIC Headlines & Catalysts
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TIC)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TIC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
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TIC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.30%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $10.39H $10.39L $10.05C $10.05VOL 1.42M
RES: $10.43SUP: $7.63SMA50: $9.22SMA200: $8.75
$11.21$9.93$8.65$7.37$6.09RES $10.43SUP $7.63$10.052026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TIC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TIC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TIC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TIC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TIC)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #613 of 1011 ⚔️ FLYW vs TIC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (TIC vs. FLYW, PAYO, WU, TNET)

Industry: Business Services (90 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TIC Solutions Inc. (TIC) ranks #613 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #403 by equity capitalization ($2.19B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WU leads on earnings valuation at 3.9x trailing P/E, while WU leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 34.3% gross margin. PAYO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with TIC at 47/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TIC ACTIVE
TIC Solutions Inc.
D 47/100 — 29.4% -0.4% -3.27% $2.19B Benchmark Subject
FLYW
Flywire Corporation Voting
C 64/100 — — 1.8% +2.07% $2.40B /flyw-vs-tic →
PAYO
Payoneer Global Inc.
C+ 67/100 33.0x — 34.1% +0.42% $2.42B /payo-vs-tic →
WU
Western Union Company
D+ 52/100 3.9x 34.3% 85.0% -0.80% $1.92B /wu-vs-tic →
TNET
TriNet Group Inc.
C+ 66/100 18.9x — 85.0% +0.91% $2.94B /tnet-vs-tic →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002032966

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TIC Solutions Inc. (TIC) reported GAAP revenue of $1.53B (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 , and +45.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$87.1M, operating cash flow of $95.0M, and free cash flow of $61.3M . On the balance sheet, TIC closed FY2025 with $4.40B in total assets against $1.59B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.08, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.53B -$87.1M $95.0M $61.3M $4.40B $1.59B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $0 $0 — — $2.21B $747.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.05B $0 — — — —

3. TIC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TIC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, TIC Solutions Inc. (NYSE: TIC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $10.05 (-3.27% 1D, market cap $2.19B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TIC ranks #613 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TIC compare to FLYW and PAYO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), TIC carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 29.4%, and ROIC of -0.4%. By comparison, FLYW (Flywire Corporation Voting) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.8%, cap $2.40B) and PAYO (Payoneer Global Inc.) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 33.0x, ROIC 34.1%, cap $2.42B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WU leads on earnings multiple (3.9x) while WU leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TIC?

Per TIC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002032966), TIC Solutions Inc. generated $1.53B in revenue, -$87.1M in net income, and $61.3M in free cash flow against $4.40B in total assets and $1.59B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TIC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TIC last traded at $10.05 (-3.27% on volume of 1,418,227 shares), positioning the stock +9.00% above its 50-day simple moving average ($9.22) and +14.86% above its 200-day simple moving average ($8.75). Across its 52-week range of $6.36 to $12.32, TIC sits at the 61.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.9% ($9.26 to $10.84).

TIC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Why is TIC stock moving today?

Why TIC Stock dropped -3.27% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-0% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 47/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

TIC — TIC Solutions Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:26:11Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, TIC carries an RQD Score of 48 out of 100, a letter grade of D, and the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 (ROIC -0.4%; FCF yield 2.7%), Whale 13F Flow at 15/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 7/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 10/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 8/20 (Altman Z 1.08; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 0.73).

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the rating's weakest elements are the fundamental cash engine and the balance sheet, each scoring 8 of 20. The cash-flow yield of 2.7% sits against a negative ROIC of -0.4%, meaning the company is not currently generating returns above its cost of capital on the figures provided. The Altman Z of 1.08 is a low reading, and the Debt/Equity of 0.73 combined with a debt balance of $1587.7M against cash of $439.5M (per the SEC financials, FY 2025) frames the leverage question. The strongest pillar is institutional flow at 15 of 20, which reflects accumulation and options positioning in the source data; this is a potential upside driver, but it does not by itself offset weak cash generation and a weak balance sheet. Insider conviction at 7 of 20 and macro fit at 10 of 20 are both below midpoint. The valuation tradeoff is that the source data does not supply P/E or EV/EBITDA, so the market's price relative to earnings cannot be assessed from these inputs. The 52-week range of $6.36 - $12.48 against a price of $10.39 places the stock in the upper portion of its recent range, which a prospective investor should weigh against the rating's distribution warning.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025 (filed 2025-12-31)$1530.3M$-17.1M$-87.1MN/A$61.3M$439.5M$1587.7M
FY 2024 (filed 2024-12-31)$0.0M$0.0M$0.0MN/AN/A$139.1M$747.0M
FY 2023 (filed 2023-12-31)$1050.1M$0.0M$0.0MN/AN/AN/AN/A

Per the market data, gross margin is 29.4%, operating margin is -1.1%, and net margin is -5.7%. ROIC is -0.4%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 1.08 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, with Debt/Equity at 0.73. The FY 2024 revenue and net income figures are reported as $0.0M in the source, which the source data does not explain. Not available in source data for the reasons behind the reported figures.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts feed, six items relate to TIC: a market-wire item on the third-quarter 2026 earnings release date (YELLOW), a market-wire item on options chain quotes (YELLOW), a Simply Wall St forecast item (YELLOW), a MarketBeat item reporting a 6.8% share price jump framed as a potential buy (GREEN, catalyst), a TradingView estimates item (YELLOW), and a MarketBeat item reporting heavy call option buying (YELLOW). The earnings-date confirmation is the clearest scheduled catalyst. The call-option activity and the 6.8% jump are the only items tagged as catalysts or positive-signal items. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports no supply chain and no butterfly links, and no proprietary signals. Risk watch: the feed contains no specific negative fundamental news; the rating's distribution warning is the principal risk signal in the source.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. The graph therefore provides no upstream or downstream dependency mapping, no sector correlation data, and no identified 2nd-order bottlenecks. A prospective investor should note that the source contains no basis for assessing ripple effects through suppliers or customers. Not available in source data for upstream dependencies, downstream dependencies, or sector correlations.

Open Questions

  • What drives the reported $0.0M revenue and net income in FY 2024 when FY 2023 and FY 2025 show revenue, and is that a reporting gap or an economic event?
  • What are the company's products, customers, and revenue model, given that the source provides only a sector and industry classification?
  • What is the debt maturity profile and cost of debt behind the $1587.7M debt figure against $439.5M cash?
  • What are TIC's P/E, EV/EBITDA, and EPS on a trailing basis, since these are absent from the source data?
  • What do the reported institutional and options flows represent in terms of identifiable holders and trade sizes?

TIC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for TIC Solutions Inc. (TIC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TIC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TIC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $10.05?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TIC 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TIC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $11.22 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is TIC (D • RQD 48/100) a Buy at $10.39?

Welcome to the TIC (TIC Solutions Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 48/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Business Services. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.73 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $10.39

Pump the brakes on TIC — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TIC, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 29.4% gross margins. Unless TIC Solutions Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

CA CashFlowKing Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $12.36 (+19.0%)
Spot @ $10.39

TIC cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TIC, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Business Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $10.39 (52-wk range $6.36 - $12.48), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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