ROARABLE
Today ⌘ Pro Terminal Big Ideas 🎲 Predictions Screener 🦋 Butterfly 8 Analysts 🏛️ Policy 🎬 Video ★ Watchlist 🎲 Prediction Markets 📊 RQD Track Record 📅 Next Catalysts 🛡️ Overlap & Crash X-Ray 📰 Live Wire 🐋 13F Whales 🏛️ Congress & CEO Buys 🏆 $100K Arena ⌘ Pro Terminal 📐 Methodology & Corrections
Stock Ratings / Real Estate / TAL / earnings
LAUR (76) GHC (63) CVSA (78) EDU (70) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

TAL Education Group (TAL) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±7.5% Move

$9.87 -2.66% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.80

TAL Education Group (TAL) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $5.62B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TAL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TAL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-02, TAL Education Group (NYSE: TAL) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $9.87 (-2.66% 1D, market cap $5.62B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 51 tracked Real Estate issuers, TAL ranks #15 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TAL compare to LAUR and GHC in the Real Estate sector?
▼

Within the Real Estate sector (Other Consumer Services), TAL carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.6x, gross margin of 55.4%, and ROIC of 12.4%. By comparison, LAUR (Laureate Education Inc.) holds a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 17.6x, ROIC 30.6%, cap $4.96B) and GHC (Graham Holdings Company) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 16.8x, ROIC 3.5%, cap $4.92B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TAL leads on earnings multiple (10.6x) while LAUR leads on capital efficiency (30.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TAL?
▼

Per TAL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-02-28, CIK 0001499620), TAL Education Group generated $3.01B in revenue (+33.7% YoY), $530.8M in net income, and $508.3M in free cash flow against $3.61B in total assets and $844.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.80 (-0.67%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 16.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510063
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk C+
Cash (13)Whales (5)SEC (16)Macro (11)CEO (18)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.2% Base Target
$14 Bull$10 Base$8 Bear
📬 FREE TAL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TAL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TAL SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.29 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
71
Grade B$12.64-8.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
68
Grade B-$11.58-11.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
66
Grade B-$10.21-3.3% Next Q
Current
63
Grade C$9.87+0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (71) → C (63)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TAL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, TAL faces multiple-compression risk if 10.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 52.9% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.67) or 200D SMA ($11.08) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($10.09) toward Bear Floor ($7.87).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TAL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TAL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Nov 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Nov 28, 2026 (~25 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±7.5% Swing Band

±$0.74 Expected Swing
$9.13 (-7.5%)Spot $9.87$10.61 (+7.5%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

TAL Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 63/100

Trailing EPS: $0.96 • YoY Revenue Growth: 33.7%

Model Bullish Setup (63/100)Model Risk Weight (37/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252026-02-28$3.01B$530.8M$508.3M55.4%
FY 20242025-02-28$2.25B$84.6M$286.2M53.3%
FY 20232024-02-29$1.49B-$3.6M$239.1M55.4%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating TAL & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on TAL
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
TAL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -9.37%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $10.06H $10.14L $9.87C $9.87VOL 9.87M
RES: $13.28SUP: $9.64SMA50: $11.67SMA200: $11.08
$13.40$12.17$10.95$9.72$8.50RES $13.28SUP $9.64$9.872026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TAL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TAL Butterfly Map → + Track TAL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
0.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +33.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TAL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TAL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TAL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TAL)

Real Estate Rank #15 of 51 ⚔️ LAUR vs TAL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Real Estate Peer Comparison (TAL vs. LAUR, GHC, CVSA, EDU)

Industry: Other Consumer Services (73 Tracked Issuers)

Across 51 tracked Real Estate securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TAL Education Group (TAL) ranks #15 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #4 by equity capitalization ($5.62B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TAL leads on earnings valuation at 10.6x trailing P/E, while LAUR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.6% ROIC and 28.3% gross margin. CVSA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 78/100 (B+) compared with TAL at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TAL ACTIVE
TAL Education Group
C 63/100 10.6x 55.4% 12.4% -2.66% $5.62B Benchmark Subject
LAUR
Laureate Education Inc.
B+ 76/100 17.6x 28.3% 30.6% -7.75% $4.96B /laur-vs-tal →
GHC
Graham Holdings Company
C 63/100 16.8x — 3.5% +0.56% $4.92B /ghc-vs-tal →
CVSA
Covista Inc.
B+ 78/100 18.4x 56.9% 14.8% -3.44% $4.36B /cvsa-vs-tal →
EDU
New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. Sponsored ADR representing 10 Ordinary Share (Cayman Islands)
B- 70/100 16.0x 54.6% 21.3% -0.83% $7.61B /edu-vs-tal →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-02-28 • CIK 0001499620

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-02-28), TAL Education Group (TAL) reported GAAP revenue of $3.01B (+33.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.25B , and +101.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $530.8M, operating cash flow of $601.5M, and free cash flow of $508.3M (+77.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, TAL closed FY2025 with $3.61B in total assets against $844.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.29, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-02-28 $3.01B $530.8M $601.5M $508.3M $3.61B $844.9M
FY2024 (FY) 2025-02-28 $2.25B $84.6M $397.9M $286.2M $3.09B $723.9M
FY2023 (FY) 2024-02-29 $1.49B -$3.6M $306.2M $239.1M $3.09B $723.9M

3. TAL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TAL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, TAL Education Group (NYSE: TAL) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $9.87 (-2.66% 1D, market cap $5.62B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 51 tracked Real Estate issuers, TAL ranks #15 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TAL compare to LAUR and GHC in the Real Estate sector?

Within the Real Estate sector (Other Consumer Services), TAL carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.6x, gross margin of 55.4%, and ROIC of 12.4%. By comparison, LAUR (Laureate Education Inc.) holds a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 17.6x, ROIC 30.6%, cap $4.96B) and GHC (Graham Holdings Company) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 16.8x, ROIC 3.5%, cap $4.92B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TAL leads on earnings multiple (10.6x) while LAUR leads on capital efficiency (30.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TAL?

Per TAL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-02-28, CIK 0001499620), TAL Education Group generated $3.01B in revenue (+33.7% YoY), $530.8M in net income, and $508.3M in free cash flow against $3.61B in total assets and $844.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TAL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TAL last traded at $9.87 (-2.66% on volume of 7,423,931 shares), positioning the stock -15.42% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.67) and -10.92% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.08). Across its 52-week range of $8.88 to $13.23, TAL sits at the 22.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.7 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.5% ($9.13 to $10.61).

TAL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is TAL's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, TAL Education Group (TAL)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Nov 28, 2026.

How much is TAL stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±7.5% event move for TAL, spanning a range between $9.13 and $10.61.

Direct Sub-Reports: TAL RQD Cockpit TAL 12M Forecast TAL Earnings & Move TAL Dividends & DRIP TAL Insiders & 13F TAL Whale Options TAL Profit Sankey TAL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 63/100 (C) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

TAL — TAL Education Group: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:20:00Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, TAL scores 63 out of 100, a letter grade of C, labeled "Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 13 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects ROIC of 12.4% and an FCF yield of 9.04%. Cash generation is a clear strength, but the score stops short of the top band.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 5 / 20. The lowest pillar. Per the RQD rating, it reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. The weak score suggests institutional sponsorship is not a current tailwind.
  • Insider Conviction: 18 / 20. The highest pillar. Per the RQD rating, it reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Insider-side signals are the strongest part of the profile.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 11 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects a beta of 1.09 and sector sensitivity. The stock carries slightly above-market sensitivity to broad moves.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 16 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects an Altman Z of 4.29, a Piotroski F of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.39. Balance-sheet quality is a relative strength.

For a prospective investor, the upside case rests on cash generation and insider conviction, with a strong balance sheet limiting downside stress. The main valuation tradeoff is that the market data shows a P/E (TTM) of 10.6 and a Forward P/E of 8.9 against an EV/EBITDA of 16.5, which is a mixed valuation picture. The weak institutional-flow pillar means the rating does not read as a broad conviction call. Overall, the rating is a balanced, mid-range verdict rather than a strong signal in either direction.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
10.14$5.62B10.68.916.50.963.4%1.09$8.88 - $13.2312.4%

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts feed, six headlines are tagged to TAL:

  • CATALYST (GREEN): Investor's Business Daily, "China EdTech Name Sees Profit Surge Amid AI Boom," the only positively tagged catalyst.
  • RISK WATCH (RED): TradingView, a price-target cut to $16.63 implying 65% upside, flagged as a risk item.
  • MARKET WIRE (YELLOW): Yahoo Finance and Investing.com items covering market action, including a headline on the stock sliding, plus a Yahoo Finance valuation piece.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no supply-chain links or proprietary signals are recorded. The news feed alone supplies the catalyst picture.

Open Questions

  • What are TAL's products, customers, and revenue drivers, and how do they map to the Other Consumer Services classification?
  • What cash and equity balances underlie the Debt/Equity of 0.39, given that cash figures are not reported?
  • What drove the swing from a FY 2024 operating loss of $-3.2M to a FY 2025 operating income of $276.0M, and is it repeatable?
  • What is the analyst consensus and the basis for the $16.63 price-target cut?
  • Which specific insider and institutional transactions produced the pillar scores of 18/20 and 5/20?

TAL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for TAL Education Group (TAL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TAL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TAL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $9.87?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TAL 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TAL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $10.95 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is TAL (C • RQD 63/100) a Buy at $10.14?

Welcome to the TAL (TAL Education Group) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 63/100 (Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Other Consumer Services. Bulls point to capital efficiency (12.4% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.31 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $10.14

Pump the brakes on TAL — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TAL, but look at what you are paying: 10.6x trailing P/E with 55.4% gross margins. Unless TAL Education Group expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $11.76 (+16.0%)
Spot @ $10.14

TAL cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TAL, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Other Consumer Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $10.14 (52-wk range $8.88 - $13.23), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

LIVE TAPE SPY $755.72 -0.38% QQQ $690.49 -1.44% DIA $517.13 -0.37% IWM $279.33 +0.96% NVDA $204.64 -4.22% AAPL $344.63 -1.23% MSFT $521.91 -1.55% TSLA $399.81 -0.86% PLTR $184.11 -6.27% SOFI $16.76 -4.83% IBIT $43.36 -0.94% GLD $355.78 -1.34%