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Stock Ratings / Real Estate / TAL
LAUR (76) GHC (63) CVSA (78) EDU (70) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

TAL Education Group (TAL) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$9.87 -2.66% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.80

TAL Education Group (TAL) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $5.62B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TAL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TAL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, TAL Education Group (NYSE: TAL) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $9.87 (-2.66% 1D, market cap $5.62B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 51 tracked Real Estate issuers, TAL ranks #15 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TAL compare to LAUR and GHC in the Real Estate sector?
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Within the Real Estate sector (Other Consumer Services), TAL carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.6x, gross margin of 55.4%, and ROIC of 12.4%. By comparison, LAUR (Laureate Education Inc.) holds a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 17.6x, ROIC 30.6%, cap $4.96B) and GHC (Graham Holdings Company) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 16.8x, ROIC 3.5%, cap $4.92B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TAL leads on earnings multiple (10.6x) while LAUR leads on capital efficiency (30.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TAL?
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Per TAL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-02-28, CIK 0001499620), TAL Education Group generated $3.01B in revenue (+33.7% YoY), $530.8M in net income, and $508.3M in free cash flow against $3.61B in total assets and $844.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.80 (-0.67%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 16.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510063
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk C+
Cash (13)Whales (5)SEC (16)Macro (11)CEO (18)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.2% Base Target
$14 Bull$10 Base$8 Bear
📬 FREE TAL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TAL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TAL SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.29 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
71
Grade B$12.64-8.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
68
Grade B-$11.58-11.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
66
Grade B-$10.21-3.3% Next Q
Current
63
Grade C$9.87+0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (71) → C (63)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TAL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, TAL faces multiple-compression risk if 10.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 52.9% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.67) or 200D SMA ($11.08) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($10.09) toward Bear Floor ($7.87).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TAL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TAL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Nov 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMOVERSOLD (<32)
31.730 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
4.29>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
9 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE23% OF RANGE
L: $9$9.87H: $13
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (55% profit margin), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: CRQD 13 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: C+RQD 27 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on TAL

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
NEUTRAL (65)

12.4% ROIC with 55.4% gross margin and 9.04% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (80)

Altman-Z 4.29 and Piotroski 9/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (57)

23/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 11/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like TAL
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
  • ✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TAL Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
TAL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -9.37%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $10.06H $10.14L $9.87C $9.87VOL 9.87M
RES: $13.28SUP: $9.64SMA50: $11.67SMA200: $11.08
$13.40$12.17$10.95$9.72$8.50RES $13.28SUP $9.64$9.872026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TAL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TAL Butterfly Map → + Track TAL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
0.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +33.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TAL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TAL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TAL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TAL)

Real Estate Rank #15 of 51 ⚔️ LAUR vs TAL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Real Estate Peer Comparison (TAL vs. LAUR, GHC, CVSA, EDU)

Industry: Other Consumer Services (73 Tracked Issuers)

Across 51 tracked Real Estate securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TAL Education Group (TAL) ranks #15 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #4 by equity capitalization ($5.62B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TAL leads on earnings valuation at 10.6x trailing P/E, while LAUR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.6% ROIC and 28.3% gross margin. CVSA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 78/100 (B+) compared with TAL at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TAL ACTIVE
TAL Education Group
C 63/100 10.6x 55.4% 12.4% -2.66% $5.62B Benchmark Subject
LAUR
Laureate Education Inc.
B+ 76/100 17.6x 28.3% 30.6% -7.75% $4.96B /laur-vs-tal →
GHC
Graham Holdings Company
C 63/100 16.8x — 3.5% +0.56% $4.92B /ghc-vs-tal →
CVSA
Covista Inc.
B+ 78/100 18.4x 56.9% 14.8% -3.44% $4.36B /cvsa-vs-tal →
EDU
New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. Sponsored ADR representing 10 Ordinary Share (Cayman Islands)
B- 70/100 16.0x 54.6% 21.3% -0.83% $7.61B /edu-vs-tal →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-02-28 • CIK 0001499620

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-02-28), TAL Education Group (TAL) reported GAAP revenue of $3.01B (+33.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.25B , and +101.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $530.8M, operating cash flow of $601.5M, and free cash flow of $508.3M (+77.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, TAL closed FY2025 with $3.61B in total assets against $844.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.29, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-02-28 $3.01B $530.8M $601.5M $508.3M $3.61B $844.9M
FY2024 (FY) 2025-02-28 $2.25B $84.6M $397.9M $286.2M $3.09B $723.9M
FY2023 (FY) 2024-02-29 $1.49B -$3.6M $306.2M $239.1M $3.09B $723.9M

3. TAL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TAL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, TAL Education Group (NYSE: TAL) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $9.87 (-2.66% 1D, market cap $5.62B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 51 tracked Real Estate issuers, TAL ranks #15 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TAL compare to LAUR and GHC in the Real Estate sector?

Within the Real Estate sector (Other Consumer Services), TAL carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.6x, gross margin of 55.4%, and ROIC of 12.4%. By comparison, LAUR (Laureate Education Inc.) holds a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 17.6x, ROIC 30.6%, cap $4.96B) and GHC (Graham Holdings Company) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 16.8x, ROIC 3.5%, cap $4.92B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TAL leads on earnings multiple (10.6x) while LAUR leads on capital efficiency (30.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TAL?

Per TAL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-02-28, CIK 0001499620), TAL Education Group generated $3.01B in revenue (+33.7% YoY), $530.8M in net income, and $508.3M in free cash flow against $3.61B in total assets and $844.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TAL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TAL last traded at $9.87 (-2.66% on volume of 7,423,931 shares), positioning the stock -15.42% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.67) and -10.92% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.08). Across its 52-week range of $8.88 to $13.23, TAL sits at the 22.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.7 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.5% ($9.13 to $10.61).

TAL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell TAL stock right now?

TAL Education Group (TAL) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C (Hold — HOLD) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. Solid 55% profit margin (12% return on capital), mixed timing at 11x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is TAL's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

TAL's 12-month base price target is $10.09 (range $7.87 to $13.89), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: TAL RQD Cockpit TAL 12M Forecast TAL Earnings & Move TAL Dividends & DRIP TAL Insiders & 13F TAL Whale Options TAL Profit Sankey TAL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 63/100 (C) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

TAL — TAL Education Group: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:20:00Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, TAL scores 63 out of 100, a letter grade of C, labeled "Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 13 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects ROIC of 12.4% and an FCF yield of 9.04%. Cash generation is a clear strength, but the score stops short of the top band.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 5 / 20. The lowest pillar. Per the RQD rating, it reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. The weak score suggests institutional sponsorship is not a current tailwind.
  • Insider Conviction: 18 / 20. The highest pillar. Per the RQD rating, it reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Insider-side signals are the strongest part of the profile.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 11 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects a beta of 1.09 and sector sensitivity. The stock carries slightly above-market sensitivity to broad moves.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 16 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects an Altman Z of 4.29, a Piotroski F of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.39. Balance-sheet quality is a relative strength.

For a prospective investor, the upside case rests on cash generation and insider conviction, with a strong balance sheet limiting downside stress. The main valuation tradeoff is that the market data shows a P/E (TTM) of 10.6 and a Forward P/E of 8.9 against an EV/EBITDA of 16.5, which is a mixed valuation picture. The weak institutional-flow pillar means the rating does not read as a broad conviction call. Overall, the rating is a balanced, mid-range verdict rather than a strong signal in either direction.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
10.14$5.62B10.68.916.50.963.4%1.09$8.88 - $13.2312.4%

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts feed, six headlines are tagged to TAL:

  • CATALYST (GREEN): Investor's Business Daily, "China EdTech Name Sees Profit Surge Amid AI Boom," the only positively tagged catalyst.
  • RISK WATCH (RED): TradingView, a price-target cut to $16.63 implying 65% upside, flagged as a risk item.
  • MARKET WIRE (YELLOW): Yahoo Finance and Investing.com items covering market action, including a headline on the stock sliding, plus a Yahoo Finance valuation piece.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no supply-chain links or proprietary signals are recorded. The news feed alone supplies the catalyst picture.

Open Questions

  • What are TAL's products, customers, and revenue drivers, and how do they map to the Other Consumer Services classification?
  • What cash and equity balances underlie the Debt/Equity of 0.39, given that cash figures are not reported?
  • What drove the swing from a FY 2024 operating loss of $-3.2M to a FY 2025 operating income of $276.0M, and is it repeatable?
  • What is the analyst consensus and the basis for the $16.63 price-target cut?
  • Which specific insider and institutional transactions produced the pillar scores of 18/20 and 5/20?

TAL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for TAL Education Group (TAL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TAL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TAL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $9.87?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TAL 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TAL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $10.95 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is TAL (C • RQD 63/100) a Buy at $10.14?

Welcome to the TAL (TAL Education Group) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 63/100 (Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Other Consumer Services. Bulls point to capital efficiency (12.4% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.31 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $10.14

Pump the brakes on TAL — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TAL, but look at what you are paying: 10.6x trailing P/E with 55.4% gross margins. Unless TAL Education Group expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $11.76 (+16.0%)
Spot @ $10.14

TAL cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TAL, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Other Consumer Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $10.14 (52-wk range $8.88 - $13.23), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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