Stock Ratings / Technology / STM / forecast

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STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$46.74 -6.50% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $46.10

STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $44.62B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on STM Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is STM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, STMicroelectronics N.V. (NYSE: STM) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $46.74 (-6.50% 1D, market cap $44.62B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, STM ranks #279 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does STM compare to MCHP and UMC in the Technology sector?

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Within the Technology sector (Semiconductors), STM carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 33.9%, and ROIC of 0.8%. By comparison, MCHP (Microchip Technology Incorporated) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.3%, cap $44.05B) and UMC (United Microelectronics Corporation) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 21.7x, ROIC 14.9%, cap $45.42B). Among the 5-stock peer group, UMC leads on earnings multiple (21.7x) while UMC leads on capital efficiency (14.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for STM?

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Per STM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000932787), STMicroelectronics N.V. generated $11.80B in revenue (-11.1% YoY), $166.0M in net income, and $1.62B in free cash flow against $24.80B in total assets and $1.83B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $46.10 (-1.36%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 13.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for STM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY STM SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 5.69 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 13.7% FCF Margin ($1.62B FCF) & 33.9% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (52.1) create a -14 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$49.57-7.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$45.78+6.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$48.68-4% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$46.74-0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (64) → D+ (56)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the STM Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, STM faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($50.31) or 200D SMA ($50.33) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($46.32) toward Bear Floor ($36.13).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $STM• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “STM Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your STM Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $46.74: 213.9 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $36.13

$7,730

$-2,270 (-22.7%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $46.32

$9,910

$-90 (-0.9%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $85.49

$18,291

+$8,291 (+82.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$48	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$80	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$41	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring STM)

✓Walkthrough of STM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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STM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -15.22%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $48.52H $49.99L $46.74C $46.74VOL 17.35M

RES: $60.58SUP: $42.21SMA50: $50.31SMA200: $50.33

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

STM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 STM Butterfly Map → + Track STM →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -11.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on STM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for STM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for STM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (STM)

Technology Rank #279 of 714 ⚔️ MCHP vs STM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (STM vs. MCHP, UMC, ALAB, MPWR)

Industry: Semiconductors (95 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) ranks #279 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #71 by equity capitalization ($44.62B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, UMC leads on earnings valuation at 21.7x trailing P/E, while UMC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.9% ROIC and — gross margin. MCHP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with STM at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
STM ACTIVE STMicroelectronics N.V.	D+	56/100	—	33.9%	0.8%	-6.50%	$44.62B	Benchmark Subject
MCHP Microchip Technology Incorporated	C+	68/100	—	57.7%	3.3%	-4.66%	$44.05B	/mchp-vs-stm →
UMC United Microelectronics Corporation	C	65/100	21.7x	—	14.9%	-7.54%	$45.42B	/umc-vs-stm →
ALAB Astera Labs Inc.	C+	68/100	—	75.7%	3.4%	-10.92%	$50.39B	/alab-vs-stm →
MPWR Monolithic Power Systems Inc.	C-	61/100	94.8x	55.2%	12.2%	+1.07%	$58.91B	/mpwr-vs-stm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000932787

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) reported GAAP revenue of $11.80B (-11.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $13.27B , and -31.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $166.0M, operating cash flow of $2.15B, and free cash flow of $1.62B (-31.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, STM closed FY2025 with $24.80B in total assets against $1.83B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.69, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$11.80B	$166.0M	$2.15B	$1.62B	$24.80B	$1.83B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$13.27B	$1.56B	$2.96B	$2.37B	$24.74B	$1.96B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$17.29B	$4.21B	$5.99B	$5.21B	$24.54B	$5.74B

3. STM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is STM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does STM compare to MCHP and UMC in the Technology sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for STM?

Where is STM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

STM last traded at $46.74 (-6.50% on volume of 13,867,071 shares), positioning the stock -7.10% below its 50-day simple moving average ($50.31) and -7.13% below its 200-day simple moving average ($50.33). Across its 52-week range of $21.11 to $81.42, STM sits at the 42.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.2% ($42.91 to $50.57).

STM Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is STM's 12-month stock price target?

STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $46.32 (-0.9% from $46.74), with a bull-case target of $85.49 and a bear-case floor of $36.13.

Is STM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates STM D+ (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 56/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: STM RQD Cockpit STM 12M Forecast STM Earnings & Move STM Dividends & DRIP STM Insiders & 13F STM Whale Options STM Profit Sankey STM News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 56/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

STM — STMicroelectronics N.V.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:11:27Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, STM scores 56 out of 100, grade D+, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20 (ROIC 0.8%; FCF yield 3.63%), Whale 13F Flow 11/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction 10/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit 6/20 (Beta 1.14; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet 16/20 (Altman Z 5.69; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 0.1). The weakest pillar is Macro Regime Fit, and the strongest is the forensic balance sheet. For a prospective investor, the balance-sheet strength suggests low solvency risk, while the low ROIC and thin margins indicate that the business currently converts little capital into returns. Upside drivers would need to come from margin recovery and improving returns on capital; the source data does not show a valuation case that clearly offsets the weak fundamentals. The beta of 1.14 implies above-market sensitivity to broad moves, which the rating treats as a negative regime fit. This is an analytical summary, not personalized advice.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$11800.0M	$175.0M	$166.0M	N/A	$1621.0M	$2837.0M	$1835.0M
FY 2024	$13269.0M	$1676.0M	$1557.0M	N/A	$2367.9M	$2282.0M	$1963.0M
FY 2023	$17286.0M	$4611.0M	$4211.0M	N/A	$5214.1M	N/A	$5742.4M

Per the SEC financials, revenue declined from $17286.0M (FY 2023) to $11800.0M (FY 2025), and net income fell from $4211.0M to $166.0M over the same span. Market data shows a 33.9% gross margin, 1.5% operating margin, and 1.4% net margin, with ROIC of 0.8%. The Altman Z-Score is 5.69 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, per the Roarable RQD rating, while Debt/Equity is 0.1. Taken together, the forensic indicators point to a sound balance sheet even as reported profitability has compressed sharply.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Market wire (Yahoo! Finance Canada, 1h ago; yellow): general market-action and institutional-positioning coverage.
Market wire (TradingKey, 3h ago; yellow): a report on a 5.04% decline on Oct 7.
Risk watch (GuruFocus, 6h ago; red): a report on a 3.0% share decline referencing a GF Score of 82.
Market wire (Seeking Alpha, 9h ago; yellow): a report titled around a recovery with limited upside.
Market wire (Yahoo Finance, 12h ago; yellow): a report attributing weakness partly to AI-infrastructure profit-taking.
Catalyst (Stock Titan, 15h ago; green): a report on a 310,000-share buyback leaving about 1.7% of capital in treasury.

The butterfly supply-chain graph lists sector Technology, industry Semiconductors, supply chain "NONE," with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

What are STM's product lines, end markets, and customer concentration?
What drove the drop in revenue and net income from FY 2023 to FY 2025?
What is the EPS trend, given that EPS is reported as N/A in all periods?
Why is EV/EBITDA at 69.6 when operating margin is only 1.5%?
What specific insider and institutional transactions underlie the 10/20 and 11/20 pillar scores?

STM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to STM Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 7h ago

STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingKey • 10h ago

STMicroelectronics NV Stock (STM) Moved Down by 5.04% on Oct 7: A Full Analysis

TradingKey report covering STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH GuruFocus • 13h ago

STMicroelectronics NV (STM) Shares Fall 3.0% -- What GF Score of 82 Tells Investors

GuruFocus report covering STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 16h ago

STMicroelectronics: A Recovery Is Happening, But Upside Is Limited (NYSE:STM)

Seeking Alpha report covering STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 19h ago

AI Infrastructure Profit-Taking Weighs on STMicroelectronics N.V.’s (STM) Performance

Yahoo Finance report covering STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Stock Titan • 22h ago

A 310,000-share buyback leaves STMicroelectronics (STM) holding about 1.7% of its capital in treasury.

Stock Titan report covering STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Timothy Sykes • 1d ago

STM Stock Climbs As Traders Focus On Breakout Setup

Timothy Sykes report covering STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Benzinga • 1d ago

STMicroelectronics Lifts Forecast Thanks To Data Center Revenue Growth

Benzinga report covering STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

STM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $46.74?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON STM 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $53.99 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is STM (D+ • RQD 56/100) a Buy at $49.99?

Welcome to the STM (STMicroelectronics N.V.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 56/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Semiconductors. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $37.99 (-24.0%)

Spot @ $49.99

Pump the brakes on STM — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on STM, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 33.9% gross margins. Unless STMicroelectronics N.V. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $58.49 (+17.0%)

Spot @ $49.99

STM cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on STM, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Semiconductors and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $49.99 (52-wk range $21.11 - $81.42), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.