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Surf Air Mobility Inc. (SRFM) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$0.71 -6.09% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.70

Surf Air Mobility Inc. (SRFM) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 37/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $100.3M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SRFM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Surf Air Mobility Inc. (NYSE: SRFM) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $0.71 (-6.09% 1D, market cap $100.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SRFM ranks #767 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SRFM compare to UP and FLYX in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Transportation Services), SRFM carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, UP (Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A)) holds a E grade (18/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $115.7M) and FLYX (flyExclusive Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $121.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TOUR leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while TOUR leads on capital efficiency (1.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SRFM?
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Per SRFM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001936224), Surf Air Mobility Inc. generated $215.2M in revenue (+27.6% YoY), -$110.6M in net income, and -$70.1M in free cash flow against $131.7M in total assets and $14.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.70 (-1.29%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510037
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (8)Whales (6)SEC (10)Macro (8)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.9% Base Target
$4 Bull$1 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE SRFM RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SRFM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (37/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SRFM SCORES 37/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 1/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+8/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
45
Grade D$0.89-1.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
42
Grade D$0.88-13.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
40
Grade D$0.76-6.6% Next Q
Current
37
Grade D-$0.71-8.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (45) → D- (37)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SRFM Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While SRFM currently carries a cautious 37/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($0.80) and Max Pain ($0.75) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $4.25.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SRFM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SRFM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 37%NO 63%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your SRFM Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $0.71: 14084.5 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $0.50
$7,042
$-2,958 (-29.6%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $0.64
$9,014
$-986 (-9.9%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $4.25
$59,859
+$49,859 (+498.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$174%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$469%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$158%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SRFM)

  • ✓Walkthrough of SRFM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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SRFM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -36.04%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $0.80H $0.80L $0.71C $0.71VOL 1.20M
RES: $1.33SUP: $0.29SMA50: $0.80SMA200: $1.18
$3.10$2.39$1.67$0.95$0.24RES $1.33SUP $0.29$0.712026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SRFM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SRFM Butterfly Map → + Track SRFM →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +27.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SRFM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SRFM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SRFM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SRFM)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #767 of 1009 ⚔️ UP vs SRFM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (SRFM vs. UP, FLYX, PAL, TOUR)

Industry: Transportation Services (22 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Surf Air Mobility Inc. (SRFM) ranks #767 by composite RQD confidence (37/100, grade D-) and #751 by equity capitalization ($100.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TOUR leads on earnings valuation at 11.5x trailing P/E, while TOUR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 1.1% ROIC and 58.0% gross margin. TOUR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 39/100 (D-) compared with SRFM at 37/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SRFM ACTIVE
Surf Air Mobility Inc.
D- 37/100 — — -35.0% -6.09% $100.3M Benchmark Subject
UP
Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A)
E 18/100 — 10.0% -35.0% +3.76% $115.7M /up-vs-srfm →
FLYX
flyExclusive Inc. (Class A)
E 26/100 — 15.0% -35.0% -10.43% $121.6M /flyx-vs-srfm →
PAL
Proficient Auto Logistics Inc.
E 34/100 — — -11.6% +13.19% $73.4M /pal-vs-srfm →
TOUR
Tuniu Corporation
D- 39/100 11.5x 58.0% 1.1% +1.91% $51.2M /tour-vs-srfm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001936224 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Surf Air Mobility Inc. (SRFM) reported GAAP revenue of $215.2M (+27.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $168.7M , and -60.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$110.6M, operating cash flow of -$64.2M, and free cash flow of -$70.1M (-6.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, SRFM closed FY2025 with $131.7M in total assets against $14.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $215.2M -$110.6M -$64.2M -$70.1M $131.7M $14.4M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $168.7M -$74.9M -$54.3M -$66.1M $124.1M $59.9M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $550.9M -$250.7M -$64.4M -$64.4M — —

3. SRFM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SRFM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Surf Air Mobility Inc. (NYSE: SRFM) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $0.71 (-6.09% 1D, market cap $100.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SRFM ranks #767 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SRFM compare to UP and FLYX in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Transportation Services), SRFM carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, UP (Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A)) holds a E grade (18/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $115.7M) and FLYX (flyExclusive Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $121.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TOUR leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while TOUR leads on capital efficiency (1.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SRFM?

Per SRFM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001936224), Surf Air Mobility Inc. generated $215.2M in revenue (+27.6% YoY), -$110.6M in net income, and -$70.1M in free cash flow against $131.7M in total assets and $14.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SRFM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SRFM last traded at $0.71 (-6.09% on volume of 1,447,381 shares), positioning the stock -11.25% below its 50-day simple moving average ($0.80) and -39.83% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.18). Across its 52-week range of $0.46 to $4.05, SRFM sits at the 7.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.80).

Direct Sub-Reports: SRFM RQD Cockpit SRFM 12M Forecast SRFM Earnings & Move SRFM Dividends & DRIP SRFM Insiders & 13F SRFM Whale Options SRFM Profit Sankey SRFM News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 37/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SRFM — Surf Air Mobility Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Surf Air Mobility Inc. (SRFM) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 37/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $0.71 (-6.09% 1D, market capitalization $100.3M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 1/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector and Transportation Services industry. Per the recent news wire, the company is involved in airline operations, SurfOS-driven efficiency initiatives, and electric aviation plans in Hawai'i. Per the market data, gross, operating, and net margins are each reported as 0%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Surf Air Mobility Inc. (SRFM) reported $215.2M in annual revenue (up from $168.7M in FY2024, +27.6% YoY) and -$110.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($550.9M revenue, -$250.7M net income) through FY2025, SRFM scaled operating cash flow to -$64.2M and free cash flow to -$70.1M, backed by $131.7M in total assets against $14.4M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 37/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $0.46 – $4.05 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The supply chain is NONE, butterfly links are empty, and there are no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and 2nd-order bottlenecks are — A prospective investor should note that the absence of mapped links means this analysis cannot identify ripple effects from the graph itself.

  • Key Question #1: Can SRFM sustain or expand its — operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Transportation Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $215.2M and free cash flow of -$70.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $14.4M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is SRFM's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

SRFM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Surf Air Mobility Inc. (SRFM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SRFM Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SRFM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $0.71?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SRFM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SRFM:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $0.90 (+18.4%)
📌 Pinned Debate

SRFM (D- • RQD 37/100) operating leverage in Transportation Services is mispriced at $0.76

Don't sleep on SRFM's setup in Consumer Discretionary. SRFM (D- • RQD 37/100) operating leverage in Transportation Services is mispriced at $0.76. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (37/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@DeepValue_CFA Agree on the RQD 37/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $0.76 and keeping dry powder in case we test $0.71.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.57 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $0.76

Revenue is reported at $0.0M across FY 2023 through FY 2025 while FCF stayed negative at -$70.1M in FY 2025, with ROIC at -35%.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short SRFM above $0.76. Revenue is reported at $0.0M across FY 2023 through FY 2025 while FCF stayed negative at -$70.1M in FY 2025, with ROIC at -35%.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20) and FCF yield (0.0%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $4.05.

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