Should I buy, hold, or sell TOUR stock right now?

Tuniu Corporation (TOUR) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 39/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 12x P/E (1% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is TOUR's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

TOUR's 12-month base price target is $4.39 (range $3.42 to $9.16), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / TOUR

YTRA (47) PAL (34) SRFM (37) UP (18) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Tuniu Corporation (TOUR) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$4.80 +1.91% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.81

Tuniu Corporation (TOUR) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $51.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TOUR Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TOUR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

▼

As of 2026-11-03, Tuniu Corporation (NASDAQ: TOUR) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $4.80 (+1.91% 1D, market cap $51.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TOUR ranks #740 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TOUR compare to YTRA and PAL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

▼

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Transportation Services), TOUR carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.5x, gross margin of 58.0%, and ROIC of 1.1%. By comparison, YTRA (Yatra Online Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $50.5M) and PAL (Proficient Auto Logistics Inc.) posts a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -11.6%, cap $73.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TOUR leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while TOUR leads on capital efficiency (1.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TOUR?

▼

Per TOUR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001597095), Tuniu Corporation generated $82.6M in revenue (+17.5% YoY), $4.5M in net income, and -$15.6M in free cash flow against $228.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.81 (+0.15%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TOUR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (39/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TOUR SCORES 39/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+13/20 pts (33% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$4.97-1.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$4.89-4.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$4.69+2.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$4.80-7.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (47) → D- (39)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TOUR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TOUR currently carries a cautious 39/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.96) and Max Pain ($5.04) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.16.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TOUR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TOUR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 39%NO 61%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

38.830 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

4 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE6% OF RANGE

L: $5$4.80H: $9

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 5 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 17 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 17 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on TOUR

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (25)

1.1% ROIC with 58.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (40)

17/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 7/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like TOUR

✓Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TOUR)

✓Walkthrough of TOUR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

TOUR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -23.93%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-03O $4.70H $4.80L $4.70C $4.80VOL 2.8K

RES: $5.24SUP: $4.60SMA50: $4.96SMA200: $5.77

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TOUR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TOUR Butterfly Map → + Track TOUR →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

1.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +17.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TOUR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TOUR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TOUR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TOUR)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #740 of 1009 ⚔️ YTRA vs TOUR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (TOUR vs. YTRA, PAL, SRFM, UP)

Industry: Transportation Services (22 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tuniu Corporation (TOUR) ranks #740 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #808 by equity capitalization ($51.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TOUR leads on earnings valuation at 11.5x trailing P/E, while TOUR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 1.1% ROIC and 58.0% gross margin. YTRA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 47/100 (D) compared with TOUR at 39/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TOUR ACTIVE Tuniu Corporation	D-	39/100	11.5x	58.0%	1.1%	+1.91%	$51.2M	Benchmark Subject
YTRA Yatra Online Inc.	D	47/100	—	—	—	+3.42%	$50.5M	/ytra-vs-tour →
PAL Proficient Auto Logistics Inc.	E	34/100	—	—	-11.6%	+13.19%	$73.4M	/pal-vs-tour →
SRFM Surf Air Mobility Inc.	D-	37/100	—	—	-35.0%	-6.09%	$100.3M	/srfm-vs-tour →
UP Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A)	E	18/100	—	10.0%	-35.0%	+3.76%	$115.7M	/up-vs-tour →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001597095 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Tuniu Corporation (TOUR) reported GAAP revenue of $82.6M (+17.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $70.4M , and +33.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $4.5M, operating cash flow of -$15.6M, and free cash flow of -$15.6M (-218.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, TOUR closed FY2025 with $228.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$82.6M	$4.5M	-$15.6M	-$15.6M	$228.8M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$70.4M	$10.6M	$13.2M	$13.2M	$261.6M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$62.2M	-$14.0M	$32.8M	$32.8M	—	—

3. TOUR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TOUR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does TOUR compare to YTRA and PAL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TOUR?

Where is TOUR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TOUR last traded at $4.80 (+1.91% on volume of 2,494 shares), positioning the stock -3.23% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.96) and -16.81% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.77). Across its 52-week range of $4.53 to $8.72, TOUR sits at the 6.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.1% ($4.65 to $4.95).

Direct Sub-Reports: TOUR RQD Cockpit TOUR 12M Forecast TOUR Earnings & Move TOUR Dividends & DRIP TOUR Insiders & 13F TOUR Whale Options TOUR Profit Sankey TOUR News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 39/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TOUR — Tuniu Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Tuniu Corporation (TOUR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 39/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $4.80 (+1.91% 1D, market capitalization $51.2M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 1.1%, gross margin of 58.0%, operating margin of 1.9%, and free cash flow yield of —.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Tuniu Corporation (TOUR) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and Transportation Services industry. Gross margin is 58% per the market data section. — for further business description details.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Tuniu Corporation (TOUR) reported $82.6M in annual revenue (up from $70.4M in FY2024, +17.5% YoY) and $4.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($62.2M revenue, -$14.0M net income) through FY2025, TOUR scaled operating cash flow to -$15.6M and free cash flow to -$15.6M, backed by $228.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 39/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $4.53 – $8.72 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 11.5x trailing P/E and 15.9x EV/EBITDA against 1.9% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— for upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks.

Key Question #1: Can TOUR sustain or expand its 1.9% operating margin and 1.1% ROIC against Transportation Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $82.6M and free cash flow of -$15.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is TOUR's 9.7x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TOUR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Tuniu Corporation (TOUR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TOUR Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 21h ago

Tuniu Corporation (TOUR) Seasonal Returns Chart - Yahoo Finance

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Tuniu Corporation (TOUR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

LGCY Stock Price and Chart — AMEX:LGCY

TradingView report covering Tuniu Corporation (TOUR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

XPOF Stock Price and Chart — NYSE:XPOF

TradingView report covering Tuniu Corporation (TOUR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE https://www.dars.gov.et/ • 1d ago

TOUR Q1 2026 Earnings: Positive Per-Share Result Reported, But Disclosure Remains Partial - ROA Comparison

https://www.dars.gov.et/ report covering Tuniu Corporation (TOUR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE https://www.dars.gov.et/ • 1d ago

TOUR Q1 2026 Earnings: Positive EPS Print With Limited Revenue Disclosure, Shares Edge Slightly Lower

https://www.dars.gov.et/ report covering Tuniu Corporation (TOUR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 62d ago

Tuniu (TOUR) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Net income fell 97% as cost pressures offset packaged tour growth.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 67d ago

Tuniu (TOUR) Grew Packaged-Tour Revenue but Swung to an Operating Loss. What Went Wrong With Margins?

Tuniu Corporation’s (NASDAQ:TOUR) ADSs closed lower after the company reported its second-quarter results. Net revenue increased 3.0% year over year to RMB138.9 million, while packaged-tour revenue rose 6.8% to RMB121.1

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 69d ago

Tuniu Corp (TOUR) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Sixth Consecutive Quarter of Non-GAAP ...

Tuniu Corp (TOUR) reports 3% revenue growth to CNY138.9 million, driven by packaged tours, while navigating margin pressure and mixed outbound destination performance.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TOUR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $4.80?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TOUR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $6.03 (+28.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Shares trade at a P/E of 11.5 and forward P/E of 9.7 with a gross margin of 58%.

Picked up a starter position in TOUR in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $4.71. Shares trade at a P/E of 11.5 and forward P/E of 9.7 with a gross margin of 58%.. Trading inside a $4.53–$8.72 52-week range with 0.0% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Transportation Services multiples expand this quarter.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@DeltaGamma_99 Agree on the RQD 39/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $4.71 and keeping dry powder in case we test $4.38.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.58 (-24.0%)

Spot @ $4.71

ROIC of 1.1% and FCF yield of 0% leave the cash engine weak, and FY 2025 free cash flow was -$15.6M.

Fading this rally in TOUR at $4.71. ROIC of 1.1% and FCF yield of 0% leave the cash engine weak, and FY 2025 free cash flow was -$15.6M.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $4.71 (52-wk range $4.53–$8.72), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.