Why SERA Stock dropped -2.45% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$1.99 -2.45% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.98

Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 29/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $80.5M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SERA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SERA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: SERA) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $1.99 (-2.45% 1D, market cap $80.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, SERA ranks #838 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SERA compare to KEQU and BNR in the Health Care sector?
▼

Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), SERA carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -30.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, KEQU (Kewaunee Scientific Corporation) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 10.1x, ROIC 16.7%, cap $96.8M) and BNR (Burning Rock Biotech Limited) posts a E grade (20/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $115.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, KEQU leads on earnings multiple (10.1x) while KEQU leads on capital efficiency (16.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SERA?
▼

Per SERA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001534969), Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) generated $81.0K in revenue (+5.2% YoY), -$31.9M in net income, and -$26.3M in free cash flow against $101.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.98 (-0.63%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (29/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510029
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (3)Whales (7)SEC (8)Macro (7)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.1% Base Target
$4 Bull$2 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE SERA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SERA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (29/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SERA SCORES 29/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+7/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.4% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
37
Grade E$2.04-0.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
34
Grade E$2.03+1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
32
Grade E$2.05-2.9% Next Q
Current
29
Grade E$1.99-9.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (37) → E (29)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SERA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While SERA currently carries a cautious 29/100 (E) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.05) and Max Pain ($2.09) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $4.04.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SERA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SERA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why SERA Stock dropped -2.45% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) dropped -2.45% to $1.99, trading at 19% of its 52-week range ($1.56 – $3.85). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 19% of its 52-week range ($1.56 – $3.85) with RSI-14 at 49.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.4% around $1.99 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 0% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live SERA Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SERA)

  • ✓Walkthrough of SERA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
SERA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +4.74%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-03O $2.06H $2.06L $1.99C $1.99VOL 86.0K
RES: $2.21SUP: $2.04SMA50: $2.05SMA200: $2.12
$2.90$2.54$2.17$1.81$1.45RES $2.21SUP $2.04$1.992026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SERA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SERA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SERA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SERA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SERA)

Health Care Rank #838 of 1016 ⚔️ KEQU vs SERA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (SERA vs. KEQU, BNR, XGN, TLSI)

Industry: Medical Specialities (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) ranks #838 by composite RQD confidence (29/100, grade E) and #681 by equity capitalization ($80.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KEQU leads on earnings valuation at 10.1x trailing P/E, while KEQU leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.7% ROIC and 28.5% gross margin. KEQU currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with SERA at 29/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SERA ACTIVE
Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A)
E 29/100 — -30.0% -35.0% -2.45% $80.5M Benchmark Subject
KEQU
Kewaunee Scientific Corporation
C+ 69/100 10.1x 28.5% 16.7% -0.12% $96.8M /kequ-vs-sera →
BNR
Burning Rock Biotech Limited
E 20/100 — 74.7% -35.0% -7.89% $115.0M /bnr-vs-sera →
XGN
Exagen Inc.
D- 36/100 — 58.3% -35.0% -2.33% $208.1M /xgn-vs-sera →
TLSI
TriSalus Life Sciences Inc.
E 30/100 — 84.6% -35.0% -1.89% $227.8M /tlsi-vs-sera →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001534969

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) reported GAAP revenue of $81.0K (+5.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $77.0K , and -73.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$31.9M, operating cash flow of -$25.6M, and free cash flow of -$26.3M (-85.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, SERA closed FY2025 with $101.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $81.0K -$31.9M -$25.6M -$26.3M $101.9M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $77.0K -$32.9M -$14.2M -$14.2M $72.6M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $306.0K -$36.2M -$27.2M -$27.2M — —

3. SERA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SERA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: SERA) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $1.99 (-2.45% 1D, market cap $80.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, SERA ranks #838 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SERA compare to KEQU and BNR in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), SERA carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -30.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, KEQU (Kewaunee Scientific Corporation) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 10.1x, ROIC 16.7%, cap $96.8M) and BNR (Burning Rock Biotech Limited) posts a E grade (20/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $115.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, KEQU leads on earnings multiple (10.1x) while KEQU leads on capital efficiency (16.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SERA?

Per SERA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001534969), Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) generated $81.0K in revenue (+5.2% YoY), -$31.9M in net income, and -$26.3M in free cash flow against $101.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SERA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SERA last traded at $1.99 (-2.45% on volume of 22,569 shares), positioning the stock -2.93% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.05) and -6.13% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.12). Across its 52-week range of $1.56 to $3.85, SERA sits at the 18.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.4% ($1.88 to $2.10).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 29/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

SERA — Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:44:56Z

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

SERA scores 30 out of 100 with a letter grade of E, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 2 / 20. this reflects ROIC of -35% and an FCF yield of 0%. The cash-generation pillar is the weakest contributor to the score.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 7 / 20. this pillar reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning.
  • Insider Conviction: 5 / 20. this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The source data provides only the pillar score and label.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 8 / 20. this pillar reflects a Beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 8 / 20. this pillar reflects an Altman Z-Score of 0.2, a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5.

For a prospective investor, the rating's implications are that the score is driven primarily by negative cash economics and a weak forensic profile, not by market-related factors. A Beta of 1.0 gives the stock market-level sensitivity, but the Fundamental Cash Engine pillar (2/20) indicates that the company is not currently generating returns on capital or free cash flow. The Altman Z-Score of 0.2 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 are weak forensic readings. Upside drivers would need to come from outside the current cash engine, since the rating assigns no credit to present operating economics. The 52-week range of $1.56 to $3.85 against a current price of $2.06 illustrates volatility, but the rating treats that price action as secondary to the forensic findings.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) is listed on NASDAQ under the ticker SERA and operates in the Health Care sector, within the Medical Specialities industry,. Per the market data, the company reports revenue of $0.1M for FY 2025. The company's gross margin is -30%, operating margin is -60%, and net margin is -60%.

The company reported operating losses and negative net income across all three periods shown, with revenue declining from $0.3M in FY 2023 to $0.1M in FY 2025. Per the market data, ROIC is -35% and the net margin is -60%. The Altman Z-Score is 0.2, the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Cash was $3.9M at the FY 2025 period end, compared with $4.0M in FY 2024.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case: The stock trades at $2.06 with a Beta of 1.0 and a 52-week low of $1.56, so the market-related risk profile is in line with the broader market per the RQD rating. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 2/20 (ROIC -35.0%, FCF yield —) and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $1.56 – $3.85 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case: Negative cash economics dominate the rating: ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of 0%, and FY 2025 free cash flow of -$26.3M against $3.9M of cash. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Medical Specialities (Health Care), SERA carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of -30.0%.

  • Key Question #1: What are the company's revenue drivers, customer concentration, and product pipeline given revenue of $0.1M against operating losses of $36.5M in FY 2025?
  • Key Question #2: What is the current debt position, since the Debt field is N/A in all reported periods while Debt/Equity is cited as 0.5?
  • Key Question #3: What are the consensus estimates and the actual outcome relative to the Q3'26 revenue estimate of 75.00K USD?

SERA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SERA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SERA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $1.99?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SERA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SERA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.43 (+19.1%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The stock trades at $2.06 with a Beta of 1.0 and a 52-week low of $1.56, so the market-related risk profile is in line with the broader

Don't sleep on SERA's setup in Health Care. The stock trades at $2.06 with a Beta of 1.0 and a 52-week low of $1.56, so the market-related risk profile is in line with the broader market per the RQD rating.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (29/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Shorting a 7/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $2.04 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.

CR CreditSpread_Watch Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.63 (-20.1%)
Spot @ $2.04

Negative cash economics dominate the rating: ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of 0%, and FY 2025 free cash flow of -$26.3M against $3.9M of cash

Fading this rally in SERA at $2.04. Negative cash economics dominate the rating: ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of 0%, and FY 2025 free cash flow of -$26.3M against $3.9M of cash.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $2.04 (52-wk range $1.56–$3.85), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

LIVE TAPE SPY $752.10 -1.80% QQQ $681.09 -3.60% DIA $519.34 -1.08% IWM $279.14 -1.68% NVDA $202.06 -1.26% AAPL $338.32 -1.83% MSFT $507.12 -2.83% TSLA $403.82 +1.00% PLTR $178.34 -3.13% SOFI $16.60 -0.95% IBIT $43.35 -5.42% GLD $361.65 -3.59%