TradingView report covering Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why SERA Stock dropped -2.45% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 29/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is SERA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: SERA) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $1.99 (-2.45% 1D, market cap $80.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, SERA ranks #838 in composite RQD confidence.
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does SERA compare to KEQU and BNR in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), SERA carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -30.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, KEQU (Kewaunee Scientific Corporation) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 10.1x, ROIC 16.7%, cap $96.8M) and BNR (Burning Rock Biotech Limited) posts a E grade (20/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $115.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, KEQU leads on earnings multiple (10.1x) while KEQU leads on capital efficiency (16.7% ROIC).
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SERA?
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Per SERA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001534969), Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) generated $81.0K in revenue (+5.2% YoY), -$31.9M in net income, and -$26.3M in free cash flow against $101.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.4% realized swing band)
Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SERA Turnaround Squeeze
While SERA currently carries a cautious 29/100 (E) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.05) and Max Pain ($2.09) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $4.04.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Why SERA Stock dropped -2.45% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) dropped -2.45% to $1.99, trading at 19% of its 52-week range ($1.56 – $3.85). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 19% of its 52-week range ($1.56 – $3.85) with RSI-14 at 49.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.4% around $1.99 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 0% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Benzinga report covering Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance UK report covering Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Sera Prognostics Inc., The Pregnancy Company® (Nasdaq: SERA), focused on improving maternal and neonatal health by providing innovative pregnancy biomarker information to doctors and patients, today announced it will rep
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SERA)
- ✓Walkthrough of SERA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
SERA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +5.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SERA today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SERA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SERA)
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (SERA vs. KEQU, BNR, XGN, TLSI)
Industry: Medical Specialities (41 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) ranks #838 by composite RQD confidence (29/100, grade E) and #681 by equity capitalization ($80.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KEQU leads on earnings valuation at 10.1x trailing P/E, while KEQU leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.7% ROIC and 28.5% gross margin. KEQU currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with SERA at 29/100 (E).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SERA
ACTIVE
Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) | E | 29/100 | — | -30.0% | -35.0% | -2.45% | $80.5M | Benchmark Subject |
| KEQU Kewaunee Scientific Corporation | C+ | 69/100 | 10.1x | 28.5% | 16.7% | -0.12% | $96.8M | /kequ-vs-sera → |
| BNR Burning Rock Biotech Limited | E | 20/100 | — | 74.7% | -35.0% | -7.89% | $115.0M | /bnr-vs-sera → |
| XGN Exagen Inc. | D- | 36/100 | — | 58.3% | -35.0% | -2.33% | $208.1M | /xgn-vs-sera → |
| TLSI TriSalus Life Sciences Inc. | E | 30/100 | — | 84.6% | -35.0% | -1.89% | $227.8M | /tlsi-vs-sera → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001534969In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) reported GAAP revenue of $81.0K (+5.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $77.0K , and -73.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$31.9M, operating cash flow of -$25.6M, and free cash flow of -$26.3M (-85.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, SERA closed FY2025 with $101.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $81.0K | -$31.9M | -$25.6M | -$26.3M | $101.9M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $77.0K | -$32.9M | -$14.2M | -$14.2M | $72.6M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $306.0K | -$36.2M | -$27.2M | -$27.2M | — | — |
3. SERA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs SERA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: SERA) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $1.99 (-2.45% 1D, market cap $80.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, SERA ranks #838 in composite RQD confidence.
How does SERA compare to KEQU and BNR in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), SERA carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -30.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, KEQU (Kewaunee Scientific Corporation) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 10.1x, ROIC 16.7%, cap $96.8M) and BNR (Burning Rock Biotech Limited) posts a E grade (20/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $115.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, KEQU leads on earnings multiple (10.1x) while KEQU leads on capital efficiency (16.7% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SERA?
Per SERA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001534969), Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) generated $81.0K in revenue (+5.2% YoY), -$31.9M in net income, and -$26.3M in free cash flow against $101.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is SERA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
SERA last traded at $1.99 (-2.45% on volume of 22,569 shares), positioning the stock -2.93% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.05) and -6.13% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.12). Across its 52-week range of $1.56 to $3.85, SERA sits at the 18.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.4% ($1.88 to $2.10).
SERA — Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
SERA scores 30 out of 100 with a letter grade of E, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars are:
- Fundamental Cash Engine: 2 / 20. this reflects ROIC of -35% and an FCF yield of 0%. The cash-generation pillar is the weakest contributor to the score.
- Whale 13F Flow: 7 / 20. this pillar reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning.
- Insider Conviction: 5 / 20. this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The source data provides only the pillar score and label.
- Macro Regime Fit: 8 / 20. this pillar reflects a Beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity.
- Forensic Balance Sheet: 8 / 20. this pillar reflects an Altman Z-Score of 0.2, a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5.
For a prospective investor, the rating's implications are that the score is driven primarily by negative cash economics and a weak forensic profile, not by market-related factors. A Beta of 1.0 gives the stock market-level sensitivity, but the Fundamental Cash Engine pillar (2/20) indicates that the company is not currently generating returns on capital or free cash flow. The Altman Z-Score of 0.2 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 are weak forensic readings. Upside drivers would need to come from outside the current cash engine, since the rating assigns no credit to present operating economics. The 52-week range of $1.56 to $3.85 against a current price of $2.06 illustrates volatility, but the rating treats that price action as secondary to the forensic findings.
2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory
Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) is listed on NASDAQ under the ticker SERA and operates in the Health Care sector, within the Medical Specialities industry,. Per the market data, the company reports revenue of $0.1M for FY 2025. The company's gross margin is -30%, operating margin is -60%, and net margin is -60%.
The company reported operating losses and negative net income across all three periods shown, with revenue declining from $0.3M in FY 2023 to $0.1M in FY 2025. Per the market data, ROIC is -35% and the net margin is -60%. The Altman Z-Score is 0.2, the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Cash was $3.9M at the FY 2025 period end, compared with $4.0M in FY 2024.
3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff
- 🐂 Primary Bull Case: The stock trades at $2.06 with a Beta of 1.0 and a 52-week low of $1.56, so the market-related risk profile is in line with the broader market per the RQD rating. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 2/20 (ROIC -35.0%, FCF yield —) and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $1.56 – $3.85 52-week range.
- 🐻 Primary Bear Case: Negative cash economics dominate the rating: ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of 0%, and FY 2025 free cash flow of -$26.3M against $3.9M of cash. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.
4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch
Operating in Medical Specialities (Health Care), SERA carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of -30.0%.
- Key Question #1: What are the company's revenue drivers, customer concentration, and product pipeline given revenue of $0.1M against operating losses of $36.5M in FY 2025?
- Key Question #2: What is the current debt position, since the Debt field is N/A in all reported periods while Debt/Equity is cited as 0.5?
- Key Question #3: What are the consensus estimates and the actual outcome relative to the Q3'26 revenue estimate of 75.00K USD?
SERA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
TradingView report covering Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Benzinga report covering Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance UK report covering Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
SERA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $1.99?
The stock trades at $2.06 with a Beta of 1.0 and a 52-week low of $1.56, so the market-related risk profile is in line with the broader
Don't sleep on SERA's setup in Health Care. The stock trades at $2.06 with a Beta of 1.0 and a 52-week low of $1.56, so the market-related risk profile is in line with the broader market per the RQD rating.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (29/100) backs up the fundamental quality.
@CreditSpread_Watch Shorting a 7/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $2.04 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.
Negative cash economics dominate the rating: ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of 0%, and FY 2025 free cash flow of -$26.3M against $3.9M of cash
Fading this rally in SERA at $2.04. Negative cash economics dominate the rating: ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of 0%, and FY 2025 free cash flow of -$26.3M against $3.9M of cash.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $2.04 (52-wk range $1.56–$3.85), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.