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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / SBUX / earnings
MCD (75) YUM (74) CMG (69) QSR (50) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±5.6% Move

$103.67 -1.74% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $103.15

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $120.28B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SBUX Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SBUX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $103.67 (-1.74% 1D, market cap $120.28B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SBUX ranks #233 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SBUX compare to MCD and YUM in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), SBUX carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 64.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 24.1%. By comparison, MCD (McDonald's Corporation) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 21.3x, ROIC 26.2%, cap $182.13B) and YUM (Yum! Brands Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 27.1x, ROIC 60.3%, cap $42.18B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MCD leads on earnings multiple (21.3x) while YUM leads on capital efficiency (60.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SBUX?
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Per SBUX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-28, CIK 0000829224), Starbucks Corporation generated $37.18B in revenue (+2.8% YoY), $1.86B in net income, and $2.44B in free cash flow against $32.23B in total assets and $14.58B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $103.15 (-0.50%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 6.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510065
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk D+
Cash (17)Whales (16)SEC (11)Macro (10)CEO (11)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.2% Base Target
$126 Bull$107 Base$83 Bear
📬 FREE SBUX RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SBUX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SBUX SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 6.6% FCF Margin ($2.44B FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.6% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (67.1) create a -10 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
57
Grade C$92.00+8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
60
Grade C$99.37+3.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
62
Grade C+$103.04+0.6% Next Q
Current
65
Grade C$103.67+1.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (57) → C (65)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SBUX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, SBUX faces multiple-compression risk if 64.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Priced at 65x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($99.19) or 200D SMA ($99.97) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($106.94) toward Bear Floor ($83.41).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SBUX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SBUX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 27, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 27, 2026 (~54 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±5.6% Swing Band

±$5.81 Expected Swing
$97.86 (-5.6%)Spot $103.67$109.48 (+5.6%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

SBUX Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 65/100

Trailing EPS: $1.63 • YoY Revenue Growth: 2.8%

Model Bullish Setup (65/100)Model Risk Weight (35/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-09-28$37.18B$1.86B$2.44B52%
FY 20242024-09-29$36.18B$3.76B$3.32B52%
FY 20232023-10-01$35.98B$4.12B$4.39B52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating SBUX & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on SBUX
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
SBUX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.24%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $103.2H $105.5L $103.2C $103.7VOL 11.12M
RES: $106.1SUP: $86.03SMA50: $99.19SMA200: $99.97
$112.1$105.4$98.70$91.98$85.27RES $106.1SUP $86.03$103.72026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SBUX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SBUX Butterfly Map → + Track SBUX →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
43.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +2.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SBUX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SBUX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SBUX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SBUX)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #233 of 1011 ⚔️ MCD vs SBUX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (SBUX vs. MCD, YUM, CMG, QSR)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) ranks #233 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #15 by equity capitalization ($120.28B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MCD leads on earnings valuation at 21.3x trailing P/E, while YUM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 60.3% ROIC and 69.8% gross margin. MCD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with SBUX at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SBUX ACTIVE
Starbucks Corporation
C 65/100 64.8x — 24.1% -1.74% $120.28B Benchmark Subject
MCD
McDonald's Corporation
B 75/100 21.3x — 26.2% +0.29% $182.13B /mcd-vs-sbux →
YUM
Yum! Brands Inc.
B 74/100 27.1x 69.8% 60.3% +0.55% $42.18B /yum-vs-sbux →
CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.
C+ 69/100 25.8x — 30.2% +1.95% $39.58B /cmg-vs-sbux →
QSR
Restaurant Brands International Inc.
D 50/100 30.9x — 12.6% -0.82% $33.18B /qsr-vs-sbux →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-28 • CIK 0000829224

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-28), Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) reported GAAP revenue of $37.18B (+2.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $36.18B , and +3.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.86B, operating cash flow of $4.75B, and free cash flow of $2.44B (-26.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, SBUX closed FY2025 with $32.23B in total assets against $14.58B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.87, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-09-28 $37.18B $1.86B $4.75B $2.44B $32.23B $14.58B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-09-29 $36.18B $3.76B $6.10B $3.32B $31.89B $14.31B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-10-01 $35.98B $4.12B $6.01B $4.39B $66.15B $15.48B

3. SBUX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SBUX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $103.67 (-1.74% 1D, market cap $120.28B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SBUX ranks #233 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SBUX compare to MCD and YUM in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), SBUX carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 64.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 24.1%. By comparison, MCD (McDonald's Corporation) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 21.3x, ROIC 26.2%, cap $182.13B) and YUM (Yum! Brands Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 27.1x, ROIC 60.3%, cap $42.18B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MCD leads on earnings multiple (21.3x) while YUM leads on capital efficiency (60.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SBUX?

Per SBUX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-28, CIK 0000829224), Starbucks Corporation generated $37.18B in revenue (+2.8% YoY), $1.86B in net income, and $2.44B in free cash flow against $32.23B in total assets and $14.58B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SBUX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SBUX last traded at $103.67 (-1.74% on volume of 14,220,259 shares), positioning the stock +4.52% above its 50-day simple moving average ($99.19) and +3.70% above its 200-day simple moving average ($99.97). Across its 52-week range of $77.99 to $110.51, SBUX sits at the 79.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 67.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.6% ($97.86 to $109.48).

SBUX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is SBUX's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 27, 2026.

How much is SBUX stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±5.6% event move for SBUX, spanning a range between $97.86 and $109.48.

Direct Sub-Reports: SBUX RQD Cockpit SBUX 12M Forecast SBUX Earnings & Move SBUX Dividends & DRIP SBUX Insiders & 13F SBUX Whale Options SBUX Profit Sankey SBUX News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 65/100 (C) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

SBUX — Starbucks Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:09:31Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, SBUX scores 65 out of 100, earning a letter grade of C and a verdict label of "Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 17/20 (ROIC 24.1%; FCF yield 2.03%), Whale 13F Flow at 16/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 11/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 10/20 (Beta 0.94; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 11/20 (Altman Z 2.87; Piotroski F 7/9; Debt/Equity 0.85).

For a prospective investor, the strongest pillar is the cash engine, where a 24.1% ROIC is the main upside driver in the source data. The weakest pillar is Macro Regime Fit at 10/20, meaning the rating sees limited alignment with the current macro backdrop. The valuation tradeoff is visible in the market data: P/E (TTM) of 64.8 and forward P/E of 60.3 sit against a 2.03% FCF yield, so price already embeds substantial expectations relative to cash generation. Insider Conviction at 11/20 and Forensic Balance Sheet at 11/20 are middling, indicating neither a strong insider signal nor a distressed balance sheet. The overall Hold label reflects a balance of quality cash returns against elevated valuation multiples.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
105.51$120.28B64.860.326.81.632.3%0.94$77.99 - $110.5124.1%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$37184.4M$2936.6M$1856.4MN/A$2442.0MN/A$14580.9M
FY 2024$36176.2M$5408.8M$3760.9MN/A$3318.1MN/A$14312.2M
FY 2023$35975.6M$5870.8M$4124.5MN/A$4389.8MN/A$15480.2M

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $35975.6M in FY 2023 to $37184.4M in FY 2025, while net income declined from $4124.5M to $1856.4M over the same span. Per the market data, operating margin is 7.9%, net margin is 5%, and ROIC is 24.1%; gross margin is listed as 0%. Per the Forensic Balance Sheet pillar of the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.87 and the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, with Debt/Equity at 0.85. Cash balances are not available in source data.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's gross margin and cash balances, given that the source lists gross margin as 0% and cash as N/A across all periods?
  • Why did net income decline from $4124.5M in FY 2023 to $1856.4M in FY 2025 while revenue grew, and what drove the operating income decline?
  • What is the composition of revenue by product, geography, and channel?
  • What do the Q4 earnings and forward guidance imply for the forward P/E of 60.3?
  • What insider and institutional ownership activity exists behind the Insider Conviction and Whale 13F Flow pillar scores?

SBUX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SBUX Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SBUX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $103.67?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SBUX 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SBUX:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $113.95 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is SBUX (C • RQD 65/100) a Buy at $105.51?

Welcome to the SBUX (Starbucks Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 65/100 (Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Restaurants. Bulls point to capital efficiency (24.1% ROIC), while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (64.8x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RI RiskArb_Desk Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $88.63 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $105.51

Pump the brakes on SBUX — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on SBUX, but look at what you are paying: 64.8x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Starbucks Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

CA CashFlowKing Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $130.83 (+24.0%)
Spot @ $105.51

SBUX cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on SBUX, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Restaurants and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $105.51 (52-wk range $77.99 - $110.51), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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