Sunrun Inc. (RUN) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Sunrun Inc. Scores 25 out of 100 with a letter grade of E, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 1/20 (ROIC -3.2%; FCF yield -23.05%); Whale 13F Flow at 6/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction at 5/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit at 3/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10/20 (Altman Z 0.2; Piotroski F 4/9; Debt/Equity 0.5).

For a prospective investor, the cash engine pillar is the weakest and carries the most weight in the interpretation: a negative ROIC and a deeply negative FCF yield indicate the business is not currently converting capital into free cash flow on a per-dollar basis. The forensic balance sheet pillar is also low, with an Altman Z of 0.2 and a Piotroski F of 4/9, which the rating frames as elevated distress and weak financial strength signals. The whale and insider pillars score in the middle-to-low range, meaning institutional and insider flow does not offset the fundamental weakness in the rating. The macro pillar reflects a Beta of 1.0, indicating market-equivalent sensitivity, with the rating noting sector sensitivity without a favorable regime fit. Any valuation tradeoff must be weighed against the negative FCF yield and the forensic distress readings. This brief is educational and not personalized financial advice.

Sunrun Inc. (RUN) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Industrials sector and the Industrial Machinery/Components industry..8B. —

Operating income was negative in all three reported periods, and FY 2025 showed net income of $0.4M against an operating loss of -$126.1M. Per the market data, gross margin is 0%, operating margin is -4.3%, and net margin is 0%. ROIC is -3.2%. The Altman Z-Score is 0.2 and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 with Debt/Equity at 0.5.

• 🐂 Primary Bull Case: Price rebounded 10% from its 52-week low at $6.78 with FY 2025 revenue of $2.96B, up from $2.04B in FY 2024. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 1/20 (ROIC -3.2%, FCF yield -23.05%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $6.78 – $21.95 52-week range.
• 🐻 Primary Bear Case: ROIC of -3.2%, FCF yield of -23.05%, and an Altman Z of 0.2 indicate weak cash generation and elevated forensic distress. Investors must weigh current valuation against -4.3% operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph records no upstream or downstream dependencies and no proprietary signals. Sector correlation data is not provided. The one sector-level observation in the news wire is the 24/7 Wall St. Report describing a solar-sector rebound alongside SolarEdge and Enphase Energy; the source does not quantify any linkage between those names and Sunrun.

• Key Question #1: What are the cash and debt balances, which are listed as N/A in the reported financials?
• Key Question #2: What is the EPS for each reported period, which is listed as N/A?
• Key Question #3: What drove the swing from a -$2.85B net loss in FY 2024 to a $0.4M net income in FY 2025 despite an operating loss?