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BRC Group Holdings Inc. (RILY) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$3.85 -5.17% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.81

BRC Group Holdings Inc. (RILY) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 37/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $133.3M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on RILY Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RILY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, BRC Group Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: RILY) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $3.85 (-5.17% 1D, market cap $133.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, RILY ranks #957 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RILY compare to SAMG and GGZ in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Investment Managers), RILY carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, SAMG (Silvercrest Asset Management Group Inc. (Class A)) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 15.2x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $132.5M) and GGZ (Gabelli Global Small and Mid Cap Value Trust of) posts a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $131.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SAMG leads on earnings multiple (15.2x) while RILY leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RILY?
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Per RILY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001464790), BRC Group Holdings Inc. generated $789.0M in revenue (-20.0% YoY), $307.0M in net income, and -$59.7M in free cash flow against $1.71B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.81 (-1.12%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510037
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (9)Whales (3)SEC (10)Macro (7)CEO (8)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.4% Base Target
$12 Bull$3 Base$3 Bear
📬 FREE RILY RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RILY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (37/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY RILY SCORES 37/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
45
Grade D$4.88-8.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
42
Grade D$4.45-10.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
40
Grade D$3.99-3.5% Next Q
Current
37
Grade D-$3.85-8.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (45) → D- (37)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RILY Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While RILY currently carries a cautious 37/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.49) and Max Pain ($4.04) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $11.80.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RILY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “RILY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 37%NO 63%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your RILY Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $3.85: 2597.4 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $2.72
$7,065
$-2,935 (-29.4%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $3.49
$9,065
$-935 (-9.4%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $11.80
$30,649
+$20,649 (+206.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$474%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$1169%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$358%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RILY)

  • ✓Walkthrough of RILY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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RILY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -55.28%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $4.42H $4.42L $3.85C $3.85VOL 1.24M
RES: $5.42SUP: $3.67SMA50: $5.49SMA200: $7.27
$11.76$9.61$7.47$5.33$3.18RES $5.42SUP $3.67$3.852026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RILY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RILY Butterfly Map → + Track RILY →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -20.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RILY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RILY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RILY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RILY)

Financials Rank #957 of 1096 ⚔️ SAMG vs RILY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (RILY vs. SAMG, GGZ, BVC, PAAC)

Industry: Investment Managers (79 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, BRC Group Holdings Inc. (RILY) ranks #957 by composite RQD confidence (37/100, grade D-) and #934 by equity capitalization ($133.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SAMG leads on earnings valuation at 15.2x trailing P/E, while RILY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. SAMG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with RILY at 37/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
RILY ACTIVE
BRC Group Holdings Inc.
D- 37/100 — — 85.0% -5.17% $133.3M Benchmark Subject
SAMG
Silvercrest Asset Management Group Inc. (Class A)
C+ 67/100 15.2x — 85.0% -2.95% $132.5M /samg-vs-rily →
GGZ
Gabelli Global Small and Mid Cap Value Trust of
D- 42/100 — — — +1.28% $131.3M /ggz-vs-rily →
BVC
BitVentures Limited
D 46/100 — — — -3.24% $122.9M /bvc-vs-rily →
PAAC
Proem Acquisition Corp I
D 48/100 — — — 0.00% $177.4M /paac-vs-rily →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001464790

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), BRC Group Holdings Inc. (RILY) reported GAAP revenue of $789.0M (-20.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $986.0M , and -29.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $307.0M, operating cash flow of -$59.7M, and free cash flow of -$59.7M (-122.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, RILY closed FY2025 with $1.71B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $789.0M $307.0M -$59.7M -$59.7M $1.71B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $986.0M -$764.0M $263.6M $263.6M $1.78B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.11B -$100.0M $24.5M $24.5M — —

3. RILY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RILY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, BRC Group Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: RILY) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $3.85 (-5.17% 1D, market cap $133.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, RILY ranks #957 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RILY compare to SAMG and GGZ in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Investment Managers), RILY carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, SAMG (Silvercrest Asset Management Group Inc. (Class A)) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 15.2x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $132.5M) and GGZ (Gabelli Global Small and Mid Cap Value Trust of) posts a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $131.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SAMG leads on earnings multiple (15.2x) while RILY leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RILY?

Per RILY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001464790), BRC Group Holdings Inc. generated $789.0M in revenue (-20.0% YoY), $307.0M in net income, and -$59.7M in free cash flow against $1.71B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RILY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RILY last traded at $3.85 (-5.17% on volume of 729,078 shares), positioning the stock -29.87% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.49) and -47.04% below its 200-day simple moving average ($7.27). Across its 52-week range of $3.64 to $11.24, RILY sits at the 2.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.3% ($3.38 to $4.32).

Direct Sub-Reports: RILY RQD Cockpit RILY 12M Forecast RILY Earnings & Move RILY Dividends & DRIP RILY Insiders & 13F RILY Whale Options RILY Profit Sankey RILY News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 37/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

RILY — BRC Group Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

BRC Group Holdings Inc. (RILY) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 37/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $3.85 (-5.17% 1D, market capitalization $133.3M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 85.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 9.6%, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

BRC Group Holdings Inc. (RILY) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Financials sector and the Investment Managers industry..1B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), BRC Group Holdings Inc. (RILY) reported $789.0M in annual revenue (up from $986.0M in FY2024, -20.0% YoY) and $307.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.11B revenue, -$100.0M net income) through FY2025, RILY scaled operating cash flow to -$59.7M and free cash flow to -$59.7M, backed by $1.71B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 37/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.64 – $11.24 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against 9.6% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore provides no upstream or downstream dependencies, no sector correlations beyond the Financials/Investment Managers classification, and no identified second-order bottlenecks. A prospective investor should treat this section as unresolved rather than as evidence of independence.

  • Key Question #1: Can RILY sustain or expand its 9.6% operating margin and 85.0% ROIC against Investment Managers peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $789.0M and free cash flow of -$59.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is RILY's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

RILY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for BRC Group Holdings Inc. (RILY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to RILY Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RILY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $3.85?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RILY 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on RILY:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $4.95 (+21.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

ROIC of 85% indicates the business is generating high returns on invested capital.

Picked up a starter position in RILY in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $4.06. ROIC of 85% indicates the business is generating high returns on invested capital.. Trading inside a $3.64–$11.24 52-week range with 0.0% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Investment Managers multiples expand this quarter.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Investment Managers. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.13 (-22.9%)
Spot @ $4.06

FCF yield of 0% and FY 2025 free cash flow of -$59.7M show no distributable cash at the current price.

FCF yield of 0% and FY 2025 free cash flow of -$59.7M show no distributable cash at the current price.. Look at the math on RILY: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for 85.0% ROIC and 9.6% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Investment Managers demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $3.57 before getting long.

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