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Red Cat Holdings Inc. (RCAT) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$4.63 -8.32% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.55

Red Cat Holdings Inc. (RCAT) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 32/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (32/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $771.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on RCAT Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RCAT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Red Cat Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: RCAT) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 32/100 at a spot price of $4.63 (-8.32% 1D, market cap $771.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, RCAT ranks #577 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RCAT compare to GDYN and SPT in the Technology sector?

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Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), RCAT carries a Roarable E (32/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 3.1%, and ROIC of -21.4%. By comparison, GDYN (Grid Dynamics Holdings Inc. (Class A)) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 79.6x, ROIC -0.7%, cap $769.9M) and SPT (Sprout Social Inc (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -31.7%, cap $740.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GDYN leads on earnings multiple (79.6x) while CGNT leads on capital efficiency (11.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RCAT?

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Per RCAT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000748268), Red Cat Holdings Inc. generated $40.7M in revenue, -$72.1M in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $273.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.55 (-1.69%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 53% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (32/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-11.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RCAT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (32/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY RCAT SCORES 32/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (34% of score)

Altman Z-Score 15.89 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 1/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+8/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 53% FCF Margin ($21.6M FCF) & 3.1% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$5.39-13.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$4.68-6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$4.40+5.2% Next Q

Current

Grade E$4.63-9.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (40) → E (32)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RCAT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While RCAT currently carries a cautious 32/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.59) and Max Pain ($4.86) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $19.72.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RCAT• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “RCAT Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 32%NO 68%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your RCAT Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $4.63: 2159.8 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $3.19

$6,890

$-3,110 (-31.1%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $4.09

$8,834

$-1,166 (-11.7%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $19.72

$42,592

+$32,592 (+325.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$4	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$19	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$4	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RCAT)

✓Walkthrough of RCAT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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RCAT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -57.91%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-02O $4.91H $5.05L $4.63C $4.63VOL 7.81M

RES: $5.00SUP: $3.89SMA50: $6.59SMA200: $10.45

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RCAT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RCAT Butterfly Map → + Track RCAT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RCAT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RCAT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RCAT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RCAT)

Technology Rank #577 of 714 ⚔️ GDYN vs RCAT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (RCAT vs. GDYN, SPT, DCBO, CGNT)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Red Cat Holdings Inc. (RCAT) ranks #577 by composite RQD confidence (32/100, grade E) and #379 by equity capitalization ($771.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GDYN leads on earnings valuation at 79.6x trailing P/E, while CGNT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.7% ROIC and 72.4% gross margin. GDYN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 62/100 (C) compared with RCAT at 32/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
RCAT ACTIVE Red Cat Holdings Inc.	E	32/100	—	3.1%	-21.4%	-8.32%	$771.2M	Benchmark Subject
GDYN Grid Dynamics Holdings Inc. (Class A)	C	62/100	79.6x	34.6%	-0.7%	+40.78%	$769.9M	/gdyn-vs-rcat →
SPT Sprout Social Inc (Class A)	D+	53/100	—	77.6%	-31.7%	-1.39%	$740.4M	/spt-vs-rcat →
DCBO Docebo Inc.	C-	61/100	—	—	—	+0.68%	$735.2M	/dcbo-vs-rcat →
CGNT Cognyte Software Ltd.	D+	54/100	—	72.4%	11.7%	-2.86%	$723.5M	/cgnt-vs-rcat →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000748268

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Red Cat Holdings Inc. (RCAT) reported GAAP revenue of $40.7M (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 , and +128.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$72.1M, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, RCAT closed FY2025 with $273.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 15.89, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$40.7M	-$72.1M	—	—	$273.7M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$0	—	—	$55.6M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2024-04-30	$17.8M	-$27.1M	—	—	—	—

3. RCAT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RCAT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does RCAT compare to GDYN and SPT in the Technology sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RCAT?

Where is RCAT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RCAT last traded at $4.63 (-8.32% on volume of 4,836,329 shares), positioning the stock -29.74% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.59) and -55.69% below its 200-day simple moving average ($10.45). Across its 52-week range of $4.14 to $18.78, RCAT sits at the 3.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($4.05 to $5.21).

RCAT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is RCAT's 12-month stock price target?

Red Cat Holdings Inc. (RCAT) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $4.09 (-11.7% from $4.63), with a bull-case target of $19.72 and a bear-case floor of $3.19.

Is RCAT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates RCAT E (Strong Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 32/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: RCAT RQD Cockpit RCAT 12M Forecast RCAT Earnings & Move RCAT Dividends & DRIP RCAT Insiders & 13F RCAT Whale Options RCAT Profit Sankey RCAT News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 32/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

RCAT — Red Cat Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:33:03Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

The Roarable RQD rating assigns RCAT a score of 32 out of 100, a letter grade of E, and a verdict label of "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." Across the five pillars, the Fundamental Cash Engine scores 8 / 20, reflecting an ROIC of -21.4% and an FCF yield of 0%. Whale 13F Flow scores 4 / 20 for institutional accumulation and options positioning. Insider Conviction scores 3 / 20 based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Macro Regime Fit scores 6 / 20, with a beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity noted. Forensic Balance Sheet scores 11 / 20, citing an Altman Z of 15.89, a Piotroski F of 1/9, and a Debt/Equity of 0.5 (all per the Roarable RQD rating). For a prospective investor, the pillar profile indicates that the weakest areas are insider and institutional signal support and the cash-generation engine, while the balance-sheet pillar is comparatively the strongest of the five. Upside drivers in the source data are limited to the recent news flow described below; the valuation tradeoff is that the stock's reported negative margins and zero FCF yield leave no earnings or cash-flow base against which the $771.2M market capitalization can be anchored from the provided figures alone. This is an educational reading of the rating, not personalized advice.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025 (filed 2025-12-31)	$40.7M	$-66.6M	$-72.1M	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
FY 2024 (filed 2024-12-31)	$0.0M	$0.0M	$0.0M	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
FY 2023 (filed 2024-04-30)	$17.8M	$-19.3M	$-27.1M	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Per the market data, gross margin is 3.1%, operating margin is -60%, and net margin is -60%, with ROIC at -21.4%. The Altman Z-Score is 15.89 and the Piotroski F-Score is 1/9, both as cited in the Roarable RQD rating. Debt/Equity is 0.5 per the same rating. The reported periods show revenue in FY 2024 of $0.0M, which is an anomaly relative to FY 2023 and FY 2025 in the source table and is not explained in the source data.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Steyr acquisition and dilution risk: A Seeking Alpha item is titled to indicate the Steyr acquisition raises dilution risk and a rating downgrade; it carries a GREEN light and CATALYST impact label in the feed.
Steyr Motors deal analyst reiteration: An Investing.com item reports that Needham reiterated its rating on the Steyr Motors deal (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).
Military drone launch and new division: A Stocktwits item covers a new long-endurance military drone and formation of a new division, characterized as retail-oriented long-term interest (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).
Blue Ops partnership: A Yahoo Finance item covers the Blue Ops partnership and valuation testing (GREEN, CATALYST).
Valuation framing: Yahoo Finance and Benzinga items frame recent price action around fair value based on sales and Monday trading moves (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).
Risk watch items: The dilution risk from the Steyr acquisition is the most explicitly flagged risk in the feed.
Proprietary signals: The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

What drives the FY 2024 reported revenue of $0.0M relative to the $17.8M in FY 2023 and $40.7M in FY 2025?
What are the terms and dilution magnitude of the Steyr acquisition referenced in the news feed?
What are the reported cash balance, debt amount, and free cash flow figures, which are currently N/A across all periods?
Who are the institutional and insider holders, and what are their recent transaction sizes?
What is the business model and revenue mix between drone, software, and other activities given the Technology/Prepackaged Software classification?

RCAT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Red Cat Holdings Inc. (RCAT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to RCAT Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 15h ago

Is Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) Above Fair Value Based On Sales?

Yahoo Finance report covering Red Cat Holdings Inc. (RCAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 18h ago

What's Going On With Red Cat Stock Monday? - Red Cat Holdings (NASDAQ:RCAT)

Benzinga report covering Red Cat Holdings Inc. (RCAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Seeking Alpha • 21h ago

Red Cat: Steyr Acquisition Raises Dilution Risk (Rating Downgrade)

Seeking Alpha report covering Red Cat Holdings Inc. (RCAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stocktwits • 1d ago

Red Cat Unveils New Long-Endurance Military Drone, Forms New Division – Retail Believes RCAT Stock Is A Long-Term Play

Stocktwits report covering Red Cat Holdings Inc. (RCAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com • 1d ago

Needham reiterates Red Cat stock rating on Steyr Motors deal

Investing.com report covering Red Cat Holdings Inc. (RCAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) Tests Its Valuation As Blue Ops Partnership Draws Attention

Yahoo Finance report covering Red Cat Holdings Inc. (RCAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST 24/7 Wall St. • 1d ago

Red Cat Jumps 8% on Cash Offer for Steyr Motors; AeroVironment and Kratos Edge Higher

24/7 Wall St. report covering Red Cat Holdings Inc. (RCAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Red Cat Holdings (NasdaqCM:RCAT) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions

Simply Wall St report covering Red Cat Holdings Inc. (RCAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RCAT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $4.63?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RCAT 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.44 (-12.1%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is RCAT (E • RQD 32/100) a Buy at $5.05?

Welcome to the RCAT (Red Cat Holdings Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 32/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.24 (-16.0%)

Spot @ $5.05

Pump the brakes on RCAT — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on RCAT, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 3.1% gross margins. Unless Red Cat Holdings Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $6.01 (+19.0%)

Spot @ $5.05

RCAT cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on RCAT, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $5.05 (52-wk range $4.14 - $18.78), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.