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Stock Ratings / Financials / PGY / financials
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Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (Class A) (PGY) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$19.23 -7.59% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.01

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (Class A) (PGY) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 76/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 85% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 76/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 11% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.0% hit rate) →
ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $1.74B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on PGY Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is PGY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (Class A) (NASDAQ: PGY) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 76/100 at a spot price of $19.23 (-7.59% 1D, market cap $1.74B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, PGY ranks #30 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does PGY compare to WLTH and TRIN in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), PGY carries a Roarable B+ (76/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 21.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, WLTH (Wealthfront Corporation) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -6.8%, cap $1.65B) and TRIN (Trinity Capital Inc.) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.63B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ATLC leads on earnings multiple (12.3x) while PGY leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PGY?
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Per PGY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001883085), Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (Class A) generated $1.26B in revenue (+25.6% YoY), $81.4M in net income, and $224.7M in free cash flow against $1.55B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.01 (-1.13%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 17.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 76/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 11% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+
025507510076
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A- · Rk C
Cash (19)Whales (15)SEC (13)Macro (12)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+8.1% Base Target
$31 Bull$21 Base$16 Bear
📬 FREE PGY RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PGY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (76/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY PGY SCORES 76/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 17.8% FCF Margin ($224.7M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (59.6) create a -8 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
68
Grade B-$17.41+0.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
71
Grade B$17.43+8.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
73
Grade B$18.88+1.9% Next Q
Current
76
Grade B+$19.23+7.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (68) → B+ (76)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PGY Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 76/100 (B+) score, PGY faces multiple-compression risk if 21.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($19.73) or 200D SMA ($16.47) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($20.79) toward Bear Floor ($15.77).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PGY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “PGY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 76%NO 24%Trade / Inspect Odds →
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How PGY Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$224.7M (17.8% FCF Margin)
Revenue$1.26BGross Profit $655.9M (52%)Cost of Sales $605.4MOp Profit $263.8M (20.9%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $392.1MNet Profit$81.4M (6.5%)Tax/Other $182.4M

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow
FY23
Rev $772.8M
FY24
Rev $1.00B
FY25
Rev $1.26B
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$1.26B52%20.9%$81.4M$224.7M85.2%
FY 2024$1.00B52%6.7%-$401.4M$30.0M38.1%
FY 2023$772.8M52%-3.2%-$128.4M-$21.7M85%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring PGY)

  • ✓Walkthrough of PGY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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PGY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +33.91%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL
2026-11-02O $20.47H $20.81L $19.23C $19.23VOL 3.33M
RES: $21.03SUP: $16.56SMA50: $19.73SMA200: $16.47
$24.49$21.14$17.80$14.46$11.11RES $21.03SUP $16.56$19.232026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PGY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PGY Butterfly Map → + Track PGY →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
15.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +25.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PGY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PGY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PGY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PGY)

Financials Rank #30 of 1096 ⚔️ WLTH vs PGY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (PGY vs. WLTH, TRIN, HAPN, ATLC)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (Class A) (PGY) ranks #30 by composite RQD confidence (76/100, grade B+) and #454 by equity capitalization ($1.74B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ATLC leads on earnings valuation at 12.3x trailing P/E, while PGY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. PGY currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 76/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
PGY ACTIVE
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (Class A)
B+ 76/100 21.3x — 85.0% -7.59% $1.74B Benchmark Subject
WLTH
Wealthfront Corporation
D 51/100 — — -6.8% -2.75% $1.65B /wlth-vs-pgy →
TRIN
Trinity Capital Inc.
D- 43/100 — — — -1.51% $1.63B /trin-vs-pgy →
HAPN
Happen Inc.
D- 42/100 13.6x — 9.0% -3.18% $1.85B /hapn-vs-pgy →
ATLC
Atlanticus Holdings Corporation
C+ 69/100 12.3x — 19.8% -4.78% $1.49B /atlc-vs-pgy →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001883085

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (Class A) (PGY) reported GAAP revenue of $1.26B (+25.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.00B , and +63.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $81.4M, operating cash flow of $238.6M, and free cash flow of $224.7M (+648.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, PGY closed FY2025 with $1.55B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.26B $81.4M $238.6M $224.7M $1.55B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.00B -$401.4M $47.8M $30.0M $1.29B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $772.8M -$128.4M -$21.7M -$21.7M — —

3. PGY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PGY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (Class A) (NASDAQ: PGY) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 76/100 at a spot price of $19.23 (-7.59% 1D, market cap $1.74B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, PGY ranks #30 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PGY compare to WLTH and TRIN in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), PGY carries a Roarable B+ (76/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 21.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, WLTH (Wealthfront Corporation) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -6.8%, cap $1.65B) and TRIN (Trinity Capital Inc.) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.63B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ATLC leads on earnings multiple (12.3x) while PGY leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PGY?

Per PGY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001883085), Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (Class A) generated $1.26B in revenue (+25.6% YoY), $81.4M in net income, and $224.7M in free cash flow against $1.55B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PGY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PGY last traded at $19.23 (-7.59% on volume of 2,414,640 shares), positioning the stock -2.53% below its 50-day simple moving average ($19.73) and +16.76% above its 200-day simple moving average ($16.47). Across its 52-week range of $10.40 to $29.75, PGY sits at the 45.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($16.83 to $21.63).

PGY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (Class A) (PGY)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), PGY converted $1.3B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 20.9% operating margin, and $224.7M in free cash flow (17.8% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: PGY RQD Cockpit PGY 12M Forecast PGY Earnings & Move PGY Dividends & DRIP PGY Insiders & 13F PGY Whale Options PGY Profit Sankey PGY News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 76/100 (B+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

PGY — Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:27:53Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, PGY scores 76 out of 100, grading B+, with the verdict label "Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20 (ROIC 85%; FCF yield 12.94%), Whale 13F Flow 15/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction 17/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit 12/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet 13/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). For a prospective investor, the strongest pillar is the cash engine, where high ROIC and a high FCF yield suggest the business generates substantial cash relative to its market value; this is an upside driver if those returns persist. The most moderate pillars are macro fit and the balance sheet, meaning the stock's sensitivity to market and sector conditions and its financial cushion are less compelling than its cash generation. The valuation tradeoff is visible in the market data: trailing P/E of 21.3 versus forward P/E of 17.9 implies expected earnings growth in the source's framing, but the stock's 52-week range of $10.4 to $29.75 shows large price volatility. The score reflects a tilt toward cash generation and insider/institutional interest rather than a clean balance sheet.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
$20.81$1.74B21.317.95.40.980%1.0$10.4 - $29.7585%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$1261.3M$263.8M$81.4MN/A$224.7M$235.3MN/A
FY 2024$1004.5M$66.8M$-401.4MN/A$30.0M$187.9MN/A
FY 2023$772.8M$-24.4M$-128.4MN/A$-21.7MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $772.8M in FY 2023 to $1261.3M in FY 2025, and operating income moved from $-24.4M to $263.8M over the same span. Net income was $81.4M in FY 2025 after $-401.4M in FY 2024. Per the market data, operating margin is 20.9% and net margin is 6.5%, with gross margin listed as 0%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, with Debt/Equity at 0.5. The Altman Z-Score and Piotroski values are the source's forensic inputs; the source does not provide debt amounts for the periods shown.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • Market action (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE): A Yahoo Finance report describes PGY outpacing the stock market on the day.
  • Risk watch (RED, RISK WATCH): A Motley Fool report titled around a 20% drop in September is flagged as a risk item.
  • Sentiment (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE): A Seeking Alpha piece characterizes the stock as stuck in a fintech discount.
  • Earnings preview (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE): A TradingView piece addresses buy, hold, or sell positioning ahead of Q3 earnings.
  • Issuance milestone (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE): A Stock Titan report describes a 100th loan-backed deal, with lifetime issuance above $44 billion.
  • Margin signal (RED, RISK WATCH): A Simply Wall St report describes the stock sinking despite a Q3 earnings margin improvement.

The butterfly supply-chain graph lists supply_chain as NONE with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals, so no supply-chain catalysts are available.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's products, customers, and revenue model, given that the profile provides only sector and industry labels?
  • What are the reported debt and EPS figures, since the source lists these as N/A across periods?
  • What drove the swing from a $-401.4M net loss in FY 2024 to $81.4M net income in FY 2025, and is it recurring?
  • What is the outcome of the Q3 earnings report referenced in the news wire, and how did it affect margins?
  • What specifically caused the reported 20% September decline, and is that risk still present?

PGY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (Class A) (PGY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to PGY Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

PGY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $19.23?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON PGY 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on PGY:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $24.56 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is PGY (B+ • RQD 76/100) a Buy at $20.81?

Welcome to the PGY (Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (Class A)) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 76/100 (Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow) in Finance: Consumer Services. Bulls point to capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $17.48 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $20.81

Pump the brakes on PGY — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on PGY, but look at what you are paying: 21.3x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (Class A) expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $24.76 (+19.0%)
Spot @ $20.81

PGY cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on PGY, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Finance: Consumer Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $20.81 (52-wk range $10.40 - $29.75), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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