Onity Group Inc. (ONIT) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$27.52 -0.86% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $27.43

Onity Group Inc. (ONIT) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $229.9M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ONIT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Onity Group Inc. (NYSE: ONIT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $27.52 (-0.86% 1D, market cap $229.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ONIT ranks #917 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ONIT compare to USDE and MFIN in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), ONIT carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 30.2%. By comparison, USDE (StablecoinX Inc. (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $229.2M) and MFIN (Medallion Financial Corp.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 6.2x, ROIC 10.5%, cap $231.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MFIN leads on earnings multiple (6.2x) while ONIT leads on capital efficiency (30.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ONIT?
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Per ONIT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000873860), Onity Group Inc. generated $1.07B in revenue (+9.3% YoY), $189.5M in net income, and -$750.9M in free cash flow against $16.17B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $27.43 (-0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510040
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-
Cash (9)Whales (5)SEC (10)Macro (6)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.1% Base Target
$57 Bull$25 Base$20 Bear
📬 FREE ONIT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ONIT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ONIT SCORES 40/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+10/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 50% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
32
Grade E$26.83-3.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
35
Grade E$25.84+1.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
37
Grade E$26.19+5.1% Next Q
Current
40
Grade D-$27.52-7.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (32) → D- (40)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ONIT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ONIT currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($30.07) and Max Pain ($28.90) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $56.81.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ONIT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ONIT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±10.4%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ONIT)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ONIT.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ONIT)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ONIT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ONIT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -41.81%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $27.76H $27.76L $27.52C $27.52VOL 70.9K
RES: $50.36SUP: $23.67SMA50: $30.07SMA200: $37.68
$50.04$43.21$36.39$29.57$22.74RES $50.36SUP $23.67$27.522026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ONIT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +9.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ONIT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ONIT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ONIT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ONIT)

Financials Rank #917 of 1096 ⚔️ USDE vs ONIT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ONIT vs. USDE, MFIN, DGXX, SVIA)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Onity Group Inc. (ONIT) ranks #917 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #856 by equity capitalization ($229.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MFIN leads on earnings valuation at 6.2x trailing P/E, while ONIT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.2% ROIC and — gross margin. USDE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 52/100 (D+) compared with ONIT at 40/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ONIT ACTIVE
Onity Group Inc.
D- 40/100 — — 30.2% -0.86% $229.9M Benchmark Subject
USDE
StablecoinX Inc. (Class A)
D+ 52/100 — — — -14.68% $229.2M /usde-vs-onit →
MFIN
Medallion Financial Corp.
D+ 52/100 6.2x — 10.5% -13.53% $231.9M /mfin-vs-onit →
DGXX
Digi Power X Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares
E 19/100 — — -23.0% -6.72% $225.1M /dgxx-vs-onit →
SVIA
Silvia Inc.
D 50/100 — — — -10.91% $238.2M /svia-vs-onit →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000873860

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Onity Group Inc. (ONIT) reported GAAP revenue of $1.07B (+9.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $976.0M , and 0.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $189.5M, operating cash flow of -$748.0M, and free cash flow of -$750.9M (-30.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, ONIT closed FY2025 with $16.17B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.07B $189.5M -$748.0M -$750.9M $16.17B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $976.0M $33.9M -$573.8M -$574.6M $16.44B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.07B -$63.7M $10.4M $10.4M — —

3. ONIT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ONIT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Onity Group Inc. (NYSE: ONIT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $27.52 (-0.86% 1D, market cap $229.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ONIT ranks #917 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ONIT compare to USDE and MFIN in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), ONIT carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 30.2%. By comparison, USDE (StablecoinX Inc. (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $229.2M) and MFIN (Medallion Financial Corp.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 6.2x, ROIC 10.5%, cap $231.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MFIN leads on earnings multiple (6.2x) while ONIT leads on capital efficiency (30.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ONIT?

Per ONIT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000873860), Onity Group Inc. generated $1.07B in revenue (+9.3% YoY), $189.5M in net income, and -$750.9M in free cash flow against $16.17B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ONIT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ONIT last traded at $27.52 (-0.86% on volume of 70,920 shares), positioning the stock -8.48% below its 50-day simple moving average ($30.07) and -26.96% below its 200-day simple moving average ($37.68). Across its 52-week range of $24.86 to $54.10, ONIT sits at the 9.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.4% ($24.66 to $30.38).

ONIT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is ONIT's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for ONIT.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 40/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ONIT — Onity Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:40:23Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ONIT scores 40 out of 100 with a letter grade of D- and a verdict of "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 (ROIC 30.2%; FCF yield 0%), Whale 13F Flow at 5/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 10/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 6/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 3/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). The strongest pillar is Insider Conviction and the weakest is Whale 13F Flow. For a prospective investor, the upside case rests on the 30.2% ROIC figure and the reported net margin of 17.8%, but the rating's own cash-engine pillar is held down by a 0% FCF yield. The balance-sheet pillar sits at a midpoint-to-weak level, with Piotroski F 3/9 indicating limited scoring strength on the forensic checklist. Institutional flow is weak at 5/20, so the rating does not currently point to strong smart-money conviction. Valuation tradeoffs are difficult to assess because P/E, forward P/E, and EV/EBITDA are not available in source data; the 0% dividend yield means no income support is reported.

Business

Onity Group Inc. is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Financials sector and the Finance: Consumer Services industry, per the company profile. The profile reports a market capitalization of $0.2B. The source data does not describe specific products, customer segments, or revenue-generation mechanics beyond the sector and industry classification.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$1066.7M$0.0M$189.5MN/A$-750.9M$180.5MN/A
FY 2024$976.0M$0.0M$33.9MN/A$-574.6M$184.8MN/A
FY 2023$1066.7M$0.0M$-63.7MN/A$10.4MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, net income rose from $33.9M in FY 2024 to $189.5M in FY 2025, while free cash flow was negative in both FY 2025 ($-750.9M) and FY 2024 ($-574.6M). Operating income is reported as $0.0M in each period, and gross and operating margins are listed as 0% in market data, so margin analysis is limited; the reported net margin is 17.8%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 30.2%. The Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 3/9, per the forensic balance-sheet pillar. Debt/Equity is 0.5 per the same pillar, while the SEC financials list debt as N/A for all periods.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts section, five items are listed, all tagged to ONIT and all marked with a YELLOW light and MARKET WIRE impact label:

  • A Yahoo Finance UK market-data page covering the stock's price, news, and history.
  • A Seeking Alpha piece titled "Onity Group: Cheap For A Reason."
  • A Benzinga item titled "Onity Group Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript."
  • A GuruFocus item on Onity seeking legal clarity on New York mortgage servicing fees amid regulatory ambiguity.
  • A MarketBeat item reporting a price target lowered at BTIG Research.
  • A Yahoo Finance item announcing a Third Quarter 2026 results conference call.

Risk watch items include the regulatory question on New York servicing fees and the reported price-target reduction. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports the sector as Financials, the industry as Finance: Consumer Services, a supply-chain value of NONE, and no butterfly links or proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no upstream or downstream dependencies, butterfly links, or proprietary signals are recorded. Sector correlation data is not available in source data. Second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the provided sources. The regulatory item on New York mortgage servicing fees, noted in the news section, is the only sector-adjacent catalyst referenced, and its transmission to revenue is not quantified in source data.

Open Questions

  • Why is operating income reported as $0.0M in every period while net income is positive, and what drives the gap?
  • What is the source of the negative free cash flow of $-750.9M in FY 2025 and $-574.6M in FY 2024 given the positive reported net income?
  • What are the EPS, P/E, and EV/EBITDA figures, which are absent from the source data?
  • What is the status and potential financial impact of the New York mortgage servicing fee legal question?
  • What drove the reported BTIG price-target reduction, and what does the Q2 2026 earnings call indicate about trends?

ONIT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Onity Group Inc. (ONIT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ONIT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ONIT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $27.52?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ONIT 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ONIT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $24.43 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ONIT (D- • RQD 40/100) a Buy at $27.76?

Welcome to the ONIT (Onity Group Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 40/100 (Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Finance: Consumer Services. Bulls point to capital efficiency (30.2% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $22.76 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $27.76

Pump the brakes on ONIT — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ONIT, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Onity Group Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $34.98 (+26.0%)
Spot @ $27.76

ONIT cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ONIT, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Finance: Consumer Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $27.76 (52-wk range $24.86 - $54.10), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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