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Omada Health Inc. (OMDA) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±10.8% Move

$17.85 -4.70% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.67

Omada Health Inc. (OMDA) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.15B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is OMDA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Omada Health Inc. (NASDAQ: OMDA) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $17.85 (-4.70% 1D, market cap $1.15B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, OMDA ranks #231 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does OMDA compare to INNV and USPH in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Nursing Services), OMDA carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 65.7%, and ROIC of -15.7%. By comparison, INNV (InnovAge Holding Corp.) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -10.2%, cap $1.25B) and USPH (U.S. Physical Therapy Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 32.6x, ROIC 11.5%, cap $1.28B). Among the 5-stock peer group, USPH leads on earnings multiple (32.6x) while USPH leads on capital efficiency (11.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OMDA?
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Per OMDA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001611115), Omada Health Inc. generated $260.2M in revenue (+53.2% YoY), -$12.8M in net income, and $16.9M in free cash flow against $305.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.66 (-1.04%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 6.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510053
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk C+
Cash (13)Whales (7)SEC (16)Macro (11)CEO (6)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.2% Base Target
$27 Bull$17 Base$14 Bear
📬 FREE OMDA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OMDA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY OMDA SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 8.93 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 6.5% FCF Margin ($16.9M FCF) & 65.7% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 14 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$18.30+5.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
58
Grade C$19.34-1.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
56
Grade C$19.01-6.1% Next Q
Current
53
Grade D+$17.85-0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (61) → D+ (53)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a OMDA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While OMDA currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($20.56) and Max Pain ($18.74) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $27.44.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OMDA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “OMDA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 53%NO 47%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±10.8% Swing Band

±$1.93 Expected Swing
$15.92 (-10.8%)Spot $17.85$19.78 (+10.8%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

OMDA Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 53/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 53.2%

Model Bullish Setup (53/100)Model Risk Weight (47/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$260.2M-$12.8M$16.9M65.7%
FY 20242024-12-31$169.8M-$47.1M-$34.8M60.6%
FY 20232023-12-31$122.8M-$67.5M-$49.7M65.7%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring OMDA)

  • ✓Walkthrough of OMDA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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OMDA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +13.55%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $19.65H $19.65L $17.85C $17.85VOL 958.7K
RES: $27.05SUP: $17.31SMA50: $20.56SMA200: $17.72
$26.29$22.80$19.31$15.82$12.33RES $27.05SUP $17.31$17.852026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OMDA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 OMDA Butterfly Map → + Track OMDA →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +53.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OMDA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OMDA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OMDA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OMDA)

Health Care Rank #231 of 1015 ⚔️ INNV vs OMDA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (OMDA vs. INNV, USPH, PNTG, TDOC)

Industry: Medical/Nursing Services (29 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Omada Health Inc. (OMDA) ranks #231 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #338 by equity capitalization ($1.15B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, USPH leads on earnings valuation at 32.6x trailing P/E, while USPH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.5% ROIC and 19.2% gross margin. USPH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with OMDA at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
OMDA ACTIVE
Omada Health Inc.
D+ 53/100 — 65.7% -15.7% -4.70% $1.15B Benchmark Subject
INNV
InnovAge Holding Corp.
D+ 52/100 — 18.0% -10.2% -2.94% $1.25B /innv-vs-omda →
USPH
U.S. Physical Therapy Inc.
B- 70/100 32.6x 19.2% 11.5% -1.08% $1.28B /usph-vs-omda →
PNTG
The Pennant Group Inc.
C 64/100 50.2x — 11.0% -2.78% $1.46B /pntg-vs-omda →
TDOC
Teladoc Health Inc.
D+ 55/100 — — -17.0% +1.41% $1.55B /tdoc-vs-omda →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001611115 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Omada Health Inc. (OMDA) reported GAAP revenue of $260.2M (+53.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $169.8M , and +111.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$12.8M, operating cash flow of $18.3M, and free cash flow of $16.9M (+148.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, OMDA closed FY2025 with $305.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 8.93, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $260.2M -$12.8M $18.3M $16.9M $305.4M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $169.8M -$47.1M -$34.2M -$34.8M $150.9M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $122.8M -$67.5M -$49.7M -$49.7M — —

3. OMDA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OMDA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Omada Health Inc. (NASDAQ: OMDA) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $17.85 (-4.70% 1D, market cap $1.15B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, OMDA ranks #231 in composite RQD confidence.

How does OMDA compare to INNV and USPH in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Nursing Services), OMDA carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 65.7%, and ROIC of -15.7%. By comparison, INNV (InnovAge Holding Corp.) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -10.2%, cap $1.25B) and USPH (U.S. Physical Therapy Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 32.6x, ROIC 11.5%, cap $1.28B). Among the 5-stock peer group, USPH leads on earnings multiple (32.6x) while USPH leads on capital efficiency (11.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OMDA?

Per OMDA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001611115), Omada Health Inc. generated $260.2M in revenue (+53.2% YoY), -$12.8M in net income, and $16.9M in free cash flow against $305.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is OMDA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OMDA last traded at $17.85 (-4.70% on volume of 948,461 shares), positioning the stock -13.18% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.56) and +0.73% above its 200-day simple moving average ($17.72). Across its 52-week range of $10.28 to $26.13, OMDA sits at the 47.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.8% ($15.92 to $19.78).

Direct Sub-Reports: OMDA RQD Cockpit OMDA 12M Forecast OMDA Earnings & Move OMDA Dividends & DRIP OMDA Insiders & 13F OMDA Whale Options OMDA Profit Sankey OMDA News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 53/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

OMDA — Omada Health Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Omada Health Inc. (OMDA) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 53/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $17.85 (-4.70% 1D, market capitalization $1.15B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -15.7%, gross margin of 65.7%, operating margin of -4.6%, and free cash flow yield of 1.41%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (6/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 8.93, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Omada Health Inc. (OMDA) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Medical/Nursing Services industry. The market capitalization is $1.2B and market data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Omada Health Inc. (OMDA) reported $260.2M in annual revenue (up from $169.8M in FY2024, +53.2% YoY) and -$12.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($122.8M revenue, -$67.5M net income) through FY2025, OMDA scaled operating cash flow to $18.3M and free cash flow to $16.9M, backed by $305.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 53/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 1.41% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $10.28 – $26.13 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -4.6% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Medical/Nursing Services (Health Care), OMDA carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 65.7%.

  • Key Question #1: Can OMDA sustain or expand its -4.6% operating margin and -15.7% ROIC against Medical/Nursing Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $260.2M and free cash flow of $16.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is OMDA's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

OMDA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Omada Health Inc. (OMDA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to OMDA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

OMDA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $17.85?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON OMDA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on OMDA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $24.54 (+31.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue grew from $122.8M in FY 2023 to $260.2M in FY 2025 while the balance sheet scores strongly on the Altman Z-Score of 8.93.

Don't sleep on OMDA's setup in Health Care. Revenue grew from $122.8M in FY 2023 to $260.2M in FY 2025 while the balance sheet scores strongly on the Altman Z-Score of 8.93.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (53/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@SiliconVal_Bull Agree on the RQD 53/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $18.73 and keeping dry powder in case we test $17.42.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $14.80 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $18.73

ROIC of -15.7% and a 1.41% FCF yield leave the operating business earning negative returns on its capital at a $19.65 price.

Fading this rally in OMDA at $18.73. ROIC of -15.7% and a 1.41% FCF yield leave the operating business earning negative returns on its capital at a $19.65 price.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $18.73 (52-wk range $10.28–$26.13), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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