Stock Ratings / Energy / OGS / dividends

SR (43) NJR (71) EE (64) UGP (53) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

ONE Gas Inc. (OGS) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$78.54 +0.56% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $78.47

ONE Gas Inc. (OGS) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 49/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $4.91B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on OGS Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is OGS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, ONE Gas Inc. (NYSE: OGS) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $78.54 (+0.56% 1D, market cap $4.91B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, OGS ranks #141 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does OGS compare to SR and NJR in the Energy sector?

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Within the Energy sector (Oil/Gas Transmission), OGS carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.2%. By comparison, SR (Spire Inc.) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E 18.9x, ROIC 5.3%, cap $5.13B) and NJR (NewJersey Resources Corporation) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 16.1x, ROIC 16.3%, cap $5.39B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NJR leads on earnings multiple (16.1x) while NJR leads on capital efficiency (16.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OGS?

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Per OGS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001587732), ONE Gas Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $264.2M in net income, and -$128.4M in free cash flow against $8.85B in total assets and $2.36B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $78.47 (-0.09%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OGS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (49/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY OGS SCORES 49/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (61.2) create a -13 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$73.61+1.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$74.59+5.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$78.36+0.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D$78.54-5.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (41) → D (49)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a OGS Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While OGS currently carries a cautious 49/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($76.16) and Max Pain ($82.47) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $95.32.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OGS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “OGS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 49%NO 51%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD

3.87% Total Yield

3.27% Cash ($2.57/yr) + 0.6% Buybacks

PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER

41/100 • ELEVATED PAYOUT WATCH

FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO

96% of FCF

8 consecutive years of payout growth

INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (8.8% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $23,243

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $899/yr

Starting Investment: $10,000

Compounding Horizon: 10 Years

$10.9K

Yr 1

$11.8K

Yr 2

$12.9K

Yr 3

$14.0K

Yr 4

$15.2K

Yr 5

$16.6K

Yr 6

$18.0K

Yr 7

$19.6K

Yr 8

$21.4K

Yr 9

$23.2K

Yr 10

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring OGS)

✓Walkthrough of OGS's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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OGS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.57%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $77.46H $78.54L $77.46C $78.54VOL 450.0K

RES: $85.31SUP: $68.91SMA50: $76.16SMA200: $80.91

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OGS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 OGS Butterfly Map → + Track OGS →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

11.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OGS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OGS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OGS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OGS)

Energy Rank #141 of 211 ⚔️ SR vs OGS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (OGS vs. SR, NJR, EE, UGP)

Industry: Oil/Gas Transmission (13 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ONE Gas Inc. (OGS) ranks #141 by composite RQD confidence (49/100, grade D) and #84 by equity capitalization ($4.91B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NJR leads on earnings valuation at 16.1x trailing P/E, while NJR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.3% ROIC and — gross margin. NJR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with OGS at 49/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
OGS ACTIVE ONE Gas Inc.	D	49/100	18.6x	—	6.2%	+0.56%	$4.91B	Benchmark Subject
SR Spire Inc.	D-	43/100	18.9x	58.8%	5.3%	+1.48%	$5.13B	/sr-vs-ogs →
NJR NewJersey Resources Corporation	B-	71/100	16.1x	—	16.3%	+0.19%	$5.39B	/njr-vs-ogs →
EE Excelerate Energy Inc. (Class A)	C	64/100	23.8x	—	8.1%	+0.86%	$3.98B	/ee-vs-ogs →
UGP Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share)	D+	53/100	—	—	—	-2.68%	$6.64B	/ugp-vs-ogs →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001587732

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ONE Gas Inc. (OGS) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $264.2M, operating cash flow of $578.8M, and free cash flow of -$128.4M (+61.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, OGS closed FY2025 with $8.85B in total assets against $2.36B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$264.2M	$578.8M	-$128.4M	$8.85B	$2.36B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$222.8M	$368.4M	-$334.8M	$8.43B	$2.39B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$231.2M	$939.5M	$939.5M	—	—

3. OGS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OGS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does OGS compare to SR and NJR in the Energy sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OGS?

Where is OGS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OGS last traded at $78.54 (+0.56% on volume of 635,450 shares), positioning the stock +3.13% above its 50-day simple moving average ($76.16) and -2.93% below its 200-day simple moving average ($80.91). Across its 52-week range of $70.37 to $90.78, OGS sits at the 40.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 61.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.6% ($75.71 to $81.37).

OGS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Does OGS pay a dividend and is it safe?

ONE Gas Inc. (OGS) offers a 3.27% cash dividend yield ($2.57 annualized) and 3.87% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as ELEVATED PAYOUT WATCH.

Direct Sub-Reports: OGS RQD Cockpit OGS 12M Forecast OGS Earnings & Move OGS Dividends & DRIP OGS Insiders & 13F OGS Whale Options OGS Profit Sankey OGS News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 49/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

OGS — ONE Gas Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:21:00Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, OGS scores 49 out of 100, earning a letter grade of D and the verdict "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 (ROIC 6.2%; FCF yield -2.62%), Whale 13F Flow at 10/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 8/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 7/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 5/9; Debt/Equity 0.68). Taken together, the weakest pillars (insider conviction and macro fit) and the negative free-cash-flow yield point to limited near-term upside drivers from the rating's perspective, while the balance-sheet pillar is the strongest of the five. Valuation tradeoffs are visible in the market data: an 18.6x trailing P/E and 6.9x EV/EBITDA sit alongside a 3.27% dividend yield, so income-oriented readers may weigh the yield against a negative FCF yield. This is an educational summary of the rating's components, not personalized advice.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
78.1	$4.91B	18.6	17.3	6.9	4.2	3.27%	1.0	$70.37 - $90.78	6.2%

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$0.0M	$457.5M	$264.2M	N/A	$-128.4M	$10.6M	$2356.0M
FY 2024	$0.0M	$398.9M	$222.8M	N/A	$-334.8M	$58.0M	$2385.3M
FY 2023	$0.0M	$377.6M	$231.2M	N/A	$939.5M	N/A	N/A

Per the SEC financials, net income rose from $222.8M in FY 2024 to $264.2M in FY 2025, while reported revenue is shown as $0.0M for all periods. Per the market data, gross, operating, and net margins are each listed as 0%, and ROIC is 6.2%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9, with Debt/Equity at 0.68. Reported cash declined from $58.0M to $10.6M while debt moved from $2385.3M to $2356.0M across the two most recent years.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news section, the wire includes six items on OGS. Item OGS-rss-2, a Seeking Alpha report, is flagged RED / RISK WATCH and references a Jefferies downgrade tied to interest-rate concerns and Texas uncertainty. Items OGS-rss-1 and OGS-rss-4 are flagged GREEN / CATALYST, covering dividend growth and a rate-base growth narrative. Items OGS-rss-0, OGS-rss-3, and OGS-rss-5 are flagged YELLOW / MARKET WIRE. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is marked NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

What is the company's reported revenue, given that revenue is shown as $0.0M across all periods while margins are listed as 0%?
What explains the negative FCF yield of -2.62% alongside positive net income in FY 2025 and FY 2024?
What is the basis and timing of the Jefferies downgrade referenced in the RED-flagged news item?
What are the cash and debt balances for FY 2023, which are shown as N/A?
What institutional or insider holdings exist, given that holders data is absent?

OGS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for ONE Gas Inc. (OGS) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to OGS Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 7h ago

ONE Gas (OGS), What Is Drawing Fresh Attention Now?

Yahoo Finance report covering ONE Gas Inc. (OGS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 10h ago

Dividend Growth Could Change The Case For ONE Gas Stock (OGS)

Yahoo Finance report covering ONE Gas Inc. (OGS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Seeking Alpha • 13h ago

ONE Gas downgraded at Jefferies on interest rate concerns, Texas uncertainty (OGS:NYSE)

Seeking Alpha report covering ONE Gas Inc. (OGS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 16h ago

ONE Gas, Inc. Estimates – NYSE:OGS

TradingView report covering ONE Gas Inc. (OGS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Simply Wall St • 19h ago

ONE Gas (OGS) Could Be 8% Undervalued Following Its Rate Base Growth Narrative

Simply Wall St report covering ONE Gas Inc. (OGS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 22h ago

Why ONE Gas (OGS) is a Great Dividend Stock Right Now

Yahoo Finance report covering ONE Gas Inc. (OGS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE ad-hoc-news.de • 1d ago

ONE Gas stock trades at EUR 67.25 with a 16.30 price-to-earnings ratio

ad-hoc-news.de report covering ONE Gas Inc. (OGS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Why ONE Gas (OGS) is a Top Dividend Stock for Your Portfolio

Yahoo Finance report covering ONE Gas Inc. (OGS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

OGS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $78.54?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON OGS 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $84.35 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is OGS (D • RQD 49/100) a Buy at $78.10?

Welcome to the OGS (ONE Gas Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 49/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Oil/Gas Transmission. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $63.26 (-19.0%)

Spot @ $78.10

Pump the brakes on OGS — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on OGS, but look at what you are paying: 18.6x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless ONE Gas Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $91.38 (+17.0%)

Spot @ $78.10

OGS cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on OGS, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Oil/Gas Transmission and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $78.10 (52-wk range $70.37 - $90.78), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.