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NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$257.24 -0.91% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $257.44

NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (54.7% gross margin, 14% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $65.44B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NXPI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NXPI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NASDAQ: NXPI) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $257.24 (-0.91% 1D, market cap $65.44B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, NXPI ranks #59 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NXPI compare to MPWR and ASX in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Semiconductors), NXPI carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 33.2x, gross margin of 54.7%, and ROIC of 13.6%. By comparison, MPWR (Monolithic Power Systems Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 94.8x, ROIC 12.2%, cap $59.54B) and ASX (ASE Technology Holding Co. Ltd. American) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 21.7x, ROIC 14.9%, cap $87.96B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ASX leads on earnings multiple (21.7x) while ASX leads on capital efficiency (14.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NXPI?
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Per NXPI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001413447), NXP Semiconductors N.V. generated $12.27B in revenue (-2.7% YoY), $2.02B in net income, and $2.42B in free cash flow against $26.56B in total assets and $10.97B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (54.7% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $257.45 (+0.08%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 19.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-
025507510071
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk C-
Cash (16)Whales (16)SEC (14)Macro (10)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.9% Base Target
$357 Bull$272 Base$211 Bear
📬 FREE NXPI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NXPI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (71/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NXPI SCORES 71/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 19.7% FCF Margin ($2.42B FCF) & 54.7% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (60.9) create a -10 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
63
Grade C+$220.83+9.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
66
Grade B-$242.36+3.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
68
Grade B-$251.69+2.2% Next Q
Current
71
Grade B-$257.24+6.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (63) → B- (71)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NXPI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 71/100 (B-) score, NXPI faces multiple-compression risk if 33.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 52.2% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($235.35) or 200D SMA ($247.04) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($272.29) toward Bear Floor ($210.94).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NXPI• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NXPI Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 71%NO 29%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your NXPI Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $257.24: 38.9 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $210.94
$8,200
$-1,800 (-18.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $272.29
$10,585
+$585 (+5.9%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $356.95
$13,876
+$3,876 (+38.8%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (34 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 23● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskOUTPERFORM$28374%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$33669%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$24258%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (NXPI Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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NXPI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.53%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $266.0H $266.0L $257.2C $257.2VOL 9.01M
RES: $265.4SUP: $219.3SMA50: $235.4SMA200: $247.0
$348.6$312.6$276.6$240.6$204.6RES $265.4SUP $219.3$257.22026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NXPI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NXPI Butterfly Map → + Track NXPI →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
25.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -2.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NXPI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NXPI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NXPI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NXPI)

Technology Rank #59 of 715 ⚔️ MPWR vs NXPI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (NXPI vs. MPWR, ASX, ALAB, MCHP)

Industry: Semiconductors (95 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) ranks #59 by composite RQD confidence (71/100, grade B-) and #56 by equity capitalization ($65.44B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ASX leads on earnings valuation at 21.7x trailing P/E, while ASX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.9% ROIC and — gross margin. NXPI currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 71/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NXPI ACTIVE
NXP Semiconductors N.V.
B- 71/100 33.2x 54.7% 13.6% -0.91% $65.44B Benchmark Subject
MPWR
Monolithic Power Systems Inc.
C- 61/100 94.8x 55.2% 12.2% +2.67% $59.54B /mpwr-vs-nxpi →
ASX
ASE Technology Holding Co. Ltd. American
C+ 69/100 21.7x — 14.9% -0.83% $87.96B /asx-vs-nxpi →
ALAB
Astera Labs Inc.
C 64/100 — 75.7% 3.4% -11.22% $44.88B /alab-vs-nxpi →
MCHP
Microchip Technology Incorporated
C 62/100 — 57.7% 3.3% -1.59% $42.00B /mchp-vs-nxpi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001413447 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) reported GAAP revenue of $12.27B (-2.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $12.61B , and -7.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $2.02B, operating cash flow of $2.82B, and free cash flow of $2.42B (+17.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, NXPI closed FY2025 with $26.56B in total assets against $10.97B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.45, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $12.27B $2.02B $2.82B $2.42B $26.56B $10.97B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $12.61B $2.51B $2.78B $2.06B $24.39B $10.35B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $13.28B $2.80B $3.51B $2.92B $36.88B $8.63B

3. NXPI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NXPI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NASDAQ: NXPI) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $257.24 (-0.91% 1D, market cap $65.44B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, NXPI ranks #59 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NXPI compare to MPWR and ASX in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Semiconductors), NXPI carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 33.2x, gross margin of 54.7%, and ROIC of 13.6%. By comparison, MPWR (Monolithic Power Systems Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 94.8x, ROIC 12.2%, cap $59.54B) and ASX (ASE Technology Holding Co. Ltd. American) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 21.7x, ROIC 14.9%, cap $87.96B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ASX leads on earnings multiple (21.7x) while ASX leads on capital efficiency (14.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NXPI?

Per NXPI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001413447), NXP Semiconductors N.V. generated $12.27B in revenue (-2.7% YoY), $2.02B in net income, and $2.42B in free cash flow against $26.56B in total assets and $10.97B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (54.7% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NXPI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NXPI last traded at $257.24 (-0.91% on volume of 5,065,700 shares), positioning the stock +9.30% above its 50-day simple moving average ($235.35) and +4.13% above its 200-day simple moving average ($247.04). Across its 52-week range of $183.00 to $339.95, NXPI sits at the 47.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.5% ($232.80 to $281.68).

Direct Sub-Reports: NXPI RQD Cockpit NXPI 12M Forecast NXPI Earnings & Move NXPI Dividends & DRIP NXPI Insiders & 13F NXPI Whale Options NXPI Profit Sankey NXPI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 71/100 (B-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NXPI — NXP Semiconductors N.V.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 71/100, corresponding to a B- letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $257.24 (-0.91% 1D, market capitalization $65.44B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (16/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 13.6%, gross margin of 54.7%, operating margin of 24.8%, and free cash flow yield of 3.61%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (16/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.15x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.45, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.09x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

NXP Semiconductors N.V. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Technology sector, Semiconductors industry. Its profitability profile is reflected in a gross margin of 54.7%, an operating margin of 24.8%, and a net margin of 16.5%. — for further business detail.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) reported $12.27B in annual revenue (up from $12.61B in FY2024, -2.7% YoY) and $2.02B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($13.28B revenue, $2.80B net income) through FY2025, NXPI scaled operating cash flow to $2.82B and free cash flow to $2.42B, backed by $26.56B in total assets against $10.97B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B- • RQD 71/100): Strong cash generator (54.7% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 16/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 16/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $183.00 – $339.95 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 33.2x trailing P/E and 22.1x EV/EBITDA against 24.8% operating margins and a 1.15x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Semiconductors (Technology), NXPI carries a macro regime beta of 1.15 and gross margin of 54.7%.

  • Key Question #1: Can NXPI sustain or expand its 24.8% operating margin and 13.6% ROIC against Semiconductors peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $12.27B and free cash flow of $2.42B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $10.97B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is NXPI's 30.9x forward P/E multiple to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.15x)?

NXPI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NXPI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NXPI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $257.24?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NXPI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NXPI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $308.94 (+19.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

RQD 72/B with ROIC of 13.6%, a 33.2x trailing P/E sitting alongside positive insider and institutional flow pillars, and an Altman Z of

Don't sleep on NXPI's setup in Technology. RQD 72/B with ROIC of 13.6%, a 33.2x trailing P/E sitting alongside positive insider and institutional flow pillars, and an Altman Z of 3.45.. Beta of 1.15 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (71/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@MidwestValue Agree on the RQD 71/100 quality, though with 1.15 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $259.61 and keeping dry powder in case we test $241.44.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $205.09 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $259.61

Revenue fell from $13.28B in FY 2023 to $12.27B in FY 2025 while debt rose to $10.97B, and the macro regime pillar scored only 11

Fading this rally in NXPI at $259.61. Revenue fell from $13.28B in FY 2023 to $12.27B in FY 2025 while debt rose to $10.97B, and the macro regime pillar scored only 11 of 20 on a 1.15 beta.. With a beta of 1.15 and the stock sitting at $259.61 (52-wk range $183.00–$339.95), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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