Stock Ratings / Energy / NWN / financials

EE (64) OGS (49) SR (43) NJR (71) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$49.93 -0.06% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $49.83

Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.10B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NWN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NWN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Northwest Natural Holding Company (NYSE: NWN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $49.93 (-0.06% 1D, market cap $2.10B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, NWN ranks #160 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NWN compare to EE and OGS in the Energy sector?

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Within the Energy sector (Oil/Gas Transmission), NWN carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.0%. By comparison, EE (Excelerate Energy Inc. (Class A)) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 23.8x, ROIC 8.1%, cap $3.98B) and OGS (ONE Gas Inc.) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 18.6x, ROIC 6.2%, cap $4.91B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NJR leads on earnings multiple (16.1x) while NJR leads on capital efficiency (16.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NWN?

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Per NWN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001733998), Northwest Natural Holding Company generated $1.29B in revenue (+11.8% YoY), $113.3M in net income, and -$197.8M in free cash flow against $6.17B in total assets and $2.27B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $49.83 (-0.20%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NWN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NWN SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±3.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (60.8) create a -15 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$48.46-1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$47.96+4.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$49.92+0% Next Q

Current

Grade D$49.93-6.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (37) → D (45)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NWN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NWN currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($48.66) and Max Pain ($52.43) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $58.79.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NWN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NWN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How NWN Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $1.20B

FY24

Rev $1.15B

FY25

Rev $1.29B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$1.29B	52%	21.8%	$113.3M	-$197.8M	6%
FY 2024	$1.15B	52%	16.6%	$78.9M	-$194.1M	5%
FY 2023	$1.20B	52%	15.4%	$93.9M	$279.9M	6%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NWN)

✓Walkthrough of NWN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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NWN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -5.53%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-02O $49.47H $49.96L $49.47C $49.93VOL 327.2K

RES: $50.14SUP: $44.77SMA50: $48.66SMA200: $50.14

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NWN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NWN Butterfly Map → + Track NWN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

11.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NWN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NWN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NWN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NWN)

Energy Rank #160 of 211 ⚔️ EE vs NWN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (NWN vs. EE, OGS, SR, NJR)

Industry: Oil/Gas Transmission (13 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) ranks #160 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #117 by equity capitalization ($2.10B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NJR leads on earnings valuation at 16.1x trailing P/E, while NJR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.3% ROIC and — gross margin. NJR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with NWN at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NWN ACTIVE Northwest Natural Holding Company	D	45/100	18.6x	—	6.0%	-0.06%	$2.10B	Benchmark Subject
EE Excelerate Energy Inc. (Class A)	C	64/100	23.8x	—	8.1%	+0.86%	$3.98B	/ee-vs-nwn →
OGS ONE Gas Inc.	D	49/100	18.6x	—	6.2%	+0.56%	$4.91B	/ogs-vs-nwn →
SR Spire Inc.	D-	43/100	18.9x	58.8%	5.3%	+1.48%	$5.13B	/sr-vs-nwn →
NJR NewJersey Resources Corporation	B-	71/100	16.1x	—	16.3%	+0.19%	$5.39B	/njr-vs-nwn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001733998

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) reported GAAP revenue of $1.29B (+11.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.15B , and +7.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $113.3M, operating cash flow of $269.1M, and free cash flow of -$197.8M (-1.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, NWN closed FY2025 with $6.17B in total assets against $2.27B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.29B	$113.3M	$269.1M	-$197.8M	$6.17B	$2.27B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.15B	$78.9M	$200.3M	-$194.1M	$5.23B	$1.68B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.20B	$93.9M	$279.9M	$279.9M	—	—

3. NWN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NWN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does NWN compare to EE and OGS in the Energy sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NWN?

Where is NWN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NWN last traded at $49.93 (-0.06% on volume of 255,236 shares), positioning the stock +2.61% above its 50-day simple moving average ($48.66) and -0.42% below its 200-day simple moving average ($50.14). Across its 52-week range of $44.45 to $55.99, NWN sits at the 47.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.5% ($48.18 to $51.68).

NWN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), NWN converted $1.3B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 21.8% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: NWN RQD Cockpit NWN 12M Forecast NWN Earnings & Move NWN Dividends & DRIP NWN Insiders & 13F NWN Whale Options NWN Profit Sankey NWN News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 45/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

NWN — Northwest Natural Holding Company: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:26:43Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, NWN carries an RQD Score of 45 and a letter grade of D, with the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." Across the five pillars:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 8 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 6% and an FCF yield of -9.4%. For a prospective investor, the weak return on invested capital and negative free-cash-flow yield mean the business is not currently generating surplus cash relative to its market value, which limits how much of the dividend and growth can be funded internally.
Whale 13F Flow: 11 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar covers institutional accumulation and options positioning. The moderate score suggests institutional flow is neither strongly supportive nor strongly negative.
Insider Conviction: 8 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar covers SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The below-midpoint score signals limited insider-level conviction in the upside case.
Macro Regime Fit: 5 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects a Beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity. This is the weakest pillar, implying the stock's risk profile is poorly aligned with the prevailing macro regime as scored.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 13 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects an Altman Z of 2.5, a Piotroski F of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.54. This is the strongest pillar but still reflects meaningful leverage.

Taken together, the rating points to a valuation that is not supported by cash generation, with the balance sheet as the relative bright spot. The investor implication is that upside depends on improving cash returns rather than on multiple expansion alone.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
49.96	$2.1B	18.6	17.3	6.4	2.69	3.68%	1.0	$44.45 - $55.99	6%

Business

NWN is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Energy sector, operating in the Oil/Gas Transmission industry, per the Profile. Per the Profile, the company has a market capitalization of $2.1B. The source data does not describe specific products, customers, or revenue-generating activities beyond the sector and industry classification.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$1289.4M	$280.9M	$113.3M	N/A	$-197.8M	$36.7M	$2272.2M
FY 2024	$1153.0M	$191.1M	$78.9M	N/A	$-194.1M	$38.5M	$1679.4M
FY 2023	$1197.5M	$184.9M	$93.9M	N/A	$279.9M	N/A	N/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $1197.5M in FY 2023 to $1289.4M in FY 2025, and net income moved from $93.9M to $113.3M over the same span. Per the market data, operating margin is 21.8%, net margin is 8.8%, and gross margin is reported as 0%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 6%, the Altman Z is 2.5, and the Piotroski F is 5/9. Per the SEC financials, reported debt climbed from $1679.4M in FY 2024 to $2272.2M in FY 2025, and FCF was negative in both of those years, which aligns with the Debt/Equity of 1.54 cited in the RQD rating.

Open Questions

What drives the negative FCF in FY 2024 and FY 2025 despite positive operating income, and how much of that is capital expenditure versus working capital?
What explains the gap between the reported FY 2023 FCF of $279.9M and the negative FCF in the following two years?
What are the FY 2023 cash and debt balances, which are reported as N/A?
What is the EPS for the reported periods, which the financials list as N/A?
What is the current gross margin of 0% reflecting, given revenue and operating income are both reported?

NWN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NWN Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟢 CATALYST SeekingAlpha • 2d ago

Emerson Among 14 Dividend Growth Companies To Announce Annual Dividend Increases In First Half Of November

Emerson may extend its 70-year dividend growth streak as earnings rebound.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 6d ago

NW Natural vs. Middlesex Water: Which Dividend Is Safer for Retirement?

A Pacific Northwest gas utility expanding into Texas squares off against a New Jersey water company staring down a quarter-billion-dollar cleanup bill, and for retirees living on dividends, picking the wrong one could co

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 6d ago

Broadcom upgraded, Ultragenyx downgraded: Wall Street's top analyst calls

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 6d ago

Truist Securities Initiates Coverage On Northwest Natural Hldg with Hold Rating, Announces Price Target of $54

Truist Securities analyst Richard Sunderland initiates coverage on Northwest Natural Hldg (NYSE:NWN) with a Hold rating and announces Price Target of $54.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST SeekingAlpha • 7d ago

Best Dividend Kings: October 2026

Dividend Kings have outperformed SPY YTD, rising 13.5% versus SPY's 12.32%, with a strong October rebound. Check out the October best dividend kings here.

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🟢 CATALYST SeekingAlpha • 10d ago

Dividend Champion, Contender, And Challenger Highlights: Week October 25

Get a weekly summary of dividend activity for Dividend Champions, Contenders, and Challengers, including dividend changes and key ex-dividend dates.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 11d ago

This Constellation Energy Analyst Begins Coverage On A Bullish Note; Here Are Top 5 Initiations For Thursday

Analysts initiated coverage: Buy ratings for CleanSpark, Constellation Energy and Atrium; Outperform for Kardigan; Neutral for Northwest Natural.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 11d ago

Mizuho Initiates Coverage On Northwest Natural Hldg with Neutral Rating, Announces Price Target of $51

Mizuho analyst Gabriel Moreen initiates coverage on Northwest Natural Hldg (NYSE:NWN) with a Neutral rating and announces Price Target of $51.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NWN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $49.93?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NWN 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $43.96 (-12.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is NWN (D • RQD 45/100) a Buy at $49.96?

Welcome to the NWN (Northwest Natural Holding Company) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 45/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Oil/Gas Transmission. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $41.47 (-17.0%)

Spot @ $49.96

Pump the brakes on NWN — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on NWN, but look at what you are paying: 18.6x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Northwest Natural Holding Company expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $59.95 (+20.0%)

Spot @ $49.96

NWN cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on NWN, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Oil/Gas Transmission and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $49.96 (52-wk range $44.45 - $55.99), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.